EUR/USD
Approaching support levels.
EUR/USD's weakness is seen as a pullback following the bullish breakout out of the symmetrical triangle (whose implied target is 1.3320). Therefore, we expect the support area between 1.3016 (intraday low) and 1.2991 (09/10/2012 high) to hold.
Even though the long-term trend is still negative (see long-term declining trendline linking the May 2011 high with the August 2011 high), the recent improvements suggest that the rise that started in July 2012 is not over.
Long 3 at 1.3035, Objs: 1.3090/1.3290/1.3365, Stop: 1.2980 (Entered: 2012-10-19).
GBP/USD
Back to support levels.
GBP/USD's decline has brought back prices close to the support area between 1.5977 (10/10/2012 low) and 1.5960 (10/09/2012 low). An hourly resistance is at 1.6067 (19/10/2012 high).
GBP/USD is likely moving in a long-term horizontal range. The resistances given by 1.6302 (30/04/2012 high) and by the long-term declining trendline (linking the August 2009 top with the April 2011 top) favour a consoilidation phase.
Await fresh signal.
USD/JPY
Testing the resistance at 79.66.
USD/JPY is rising after a 2 days consolidation. A test of the horizontal resistance at 79.66 is underway. An hourly support is at 79.43 (19/10/2012 high). A short-term support is at 78.99 (intraday low).
USD/JPY is likely in a long-term bottoming process and is oversold in the medium-term time frame. We therefore expect to see a phase of strength in the short-term. Medium-term resistance is at 80.62.
Long 2 at 78.18, Objs: 80.62/83.00, Stop: 78.18 (Entered: 2012-09-20).
USD/CHF
Bouncing within short-term downtrend.
USD/CHF's strength is expected to find resistance between 0.9287 (intraday high) and 0.9298 (38.2% retracement). The short-term support is at 0.9215 (17/10/2012 low).
The break of prior support at 0.9423 (18/06/2012 low) opens the way for a mediumterm move towards the next horizontal support at 0.9043 (01/05/2012 low). Therefore, the rise from 0.9239 is viewed as a countertrend rally. A break of the resistance at 0.9438 (01/10/2012 high) is needed to negate this bearish bias.
Short 3 at 0.9215, Objs: 0.9120/0.9010/0.8650, Stop: 0.9310 (Entered: 2012-10-17).
USD/CAD
Testing the key resistance at 0.9949.
USD/CAD has posted a second sharp up day last Friday. It is now testing the key resistance at 0.9949. An hourly support is at 0.9879 (16/10/2012 high).
Our strategy has been stopped given the break of the resistance at 0.9884.
The succession of lower highs since March 2009 favours an underlying bearish bias. Moreover, the break of the support at 0.9725 opens the way for a medium-term move towards the strong support at 0.9407. A break of the resistance at 0.9949 is needed to negate this medium-term bias.
Our strategy has been stopped.
AUD/USD
Approaching support levels.
AUD/USD weakened last Friday. It is now close to the support area implied by 1.0289 and its rising trendline. A move towards the short-term resistance at 1.0475 (28/09/2012 high) is still favoured.
The sharp bounce near the support at 1.0177 favours a new test of the long-term declining trendline.
Await fresh signal.
GBP/JPY
Successful test of the support at 126.78.
GBP/JPY has successfully tested its hourly support at 126.78 (17/10/2012 low). Given the subsequent powerful rebound, a test of the resistance area between 128.24 (18/10/2012 high) and 128.84 is expected.
GBP/JPY is moving within a long-term falling trend since April 2010. Nevertheless, the break of the short-term declining channel favours a test of this long-term downtrend.
Await fresh signal.
EUR/JPY
Testing key resistance at 103.86.
EUR/JPY has broken out of its symmetrical triangle. The implied upside potential is 105.90. Monitor the test of the strong resistance area defined by the declining trendline and the previous high at 103.86. An hourly support is at 102.92 (17/10/2012 low).
EUR/JPY is moving in a long-term downtrend (linking the October 2009 top with the April 2011 top). The medium-term oscillators favour a test of this downtrend.
Buy limit 3 at 101.90, Objs: 102.80/103.60/107.50, Stop: 101.00.
EUR/GBP
Pausing close to key resistance at 0.8169.
EUR/GBP has broken its declining trendline and its resistance at 0.8115. Monitor the key horizontal resistance at 0.8169. An hourly support is at 0.8108 (intraday low).
We see the rise from 0.7755 as a countertrend move within a long-term downtrend. We need to see a break of the strong resistance area between 0.8115 (14/09/2012 high, see also declining trendline) and 0.8169 to negate this view.
Await fresh signal.
EUR/CHF
Moving sideways.
EUR/CHF has shown signs of strength since 5 September, which increases the likelihood of further medium-term strength.
The SNB has put a floor at 1.2000 on EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term.
In the long-term, we remain of the view that if EUR/USD can gather some downside momentum then it may be a step too far for the SNB to hold back the whole FX market.
Long 3 at 1.2121, Objs: 1.2243/1.2380/1.2474, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2012-09-18).
GOLD
Testing the support at 1721.
Gold weakened sharply on 19 October. The support at 1737 has been broken and the one at 1721 is challenged. The next horizontal support can be found at 1686. An hourly resistance is at 1739 (intraday high).
The strong resistance area between 1791 and 1803, coupled with overbought conditions, favours a corrective phase.
Gold is in a secular uptrend with strong support at 1523.
Short 2 at 1775, Objs: 1690/1657, Stop: 1775 (Entered: 2012-09-27).
SILVER
Breaching support at 31.94.
Silver continues to decline. However, the theoretical target at 31.66 implied by the double-top has almost been reached and prices are getting close to short-term oversold levels. Monitor the support at 31.94 (see also 38.2% retracement from the rise that started on 28 June) for a potential pickup in demand. An hourly resistance is at 32.6 (intraday high).
Silver, like Gold, has been able to hold above its key support. The break of the long-term declining trendline favours a lengthy sideways move. Long-term horizontal resistance is at 37.48.
Await fresh signal.
