Approaching key resistance at 1.3172.
EUR/USD has broken to the upside out of its symmetrical triangle, which calls for further strength towards 1.3320. Monitor the resistance at 1.3172 (see also declining trendline). An hourly support is at 1.3016 (intraday low).
Even though the long-term trend is still negative (see long-term declining trendline linking the May 2011 high with the August 2011 high), the recent improvements suggest that the rise that started in July 2012 is not over.
Buy limit 3 at 1.3035, Objs: 1.3090/1.3290/1.3365, Stop: 1.2980
Testing declining trendlines.
GBP/USD has broken its first declining trendline but failed, thus far, to break the second one. An hourly support can be found at 1.6092 (intraday low and rising trendline).
GBP/USD is likely moving in a long-term horizontal range. The resistances given by 1.6302 (30/04/2012 high) and by the long-term declining trendline (linking the August 2009 top with the April 2011 top) favour a corrective phase.
Await fresh signal.
Testing the resistance at 79.22.
USD/JPY has broken its declining trendline and is now testing its horizontal resistance at 79.22. An hourly support is at 78.90 (intraday low). The short-term key support is at 78.62 (16/10/2012 low).
USD/JPY is likely in a long-term bottoming process and is oversold in the medium-term time frame. We therefore expect to see a phase of strength in the short-term. Medium-term resistance is at 80.62.
Long 3 at 78.18, Objs: 79.47/80.62/83.00, Stop: 76.89 (Entered: 2012-09-20).
Yesterday's new low opens the way for further weakness.
USD/CHF has moved below its key support at 0.9239, indicating that the rise from this level was only a countertrend move. Further weakness is therefore expected. Resistance for a bounce is expected to be found at 0.9287 (intraday high).
The break of prior support at 0.9423 (18/06/2012 low) opens the way for a mediumterm move towards the next horizontal support at 0.9043 (01/05/2012 low). Therefore, the rise from 0.9239 is viewed as a countertrend rally. A break of the resistance at 0.9660 (22/08/2012 high) is needed to negate this bearish bias.
Short 3 at 0.9215, Objs: 0.9120/0.9010/0.8650, Stop: 0.9310 (Entered: 2012-10-17).
Yesterday's bearish engulfing pattern negates recent improvements.
USD/CAD has negated the bullish bias favoured by its recent price behaviour. Indeed, yesterday's bearish engulfing pattern close to the resistance at 0.9884 suggests that the rebound from 0.9633 is losing its momentum. A short-term support area is between 0.9736 and 0.9726 (19/09/2012 low).
The succession of lower highs since March 2009 favours an underlying bearish bias. Indeed, the break of the support at 0.9725 opens the way for a medium-term move towards the strong support at 0.9407. A break of the resistance at 0.9949 is needed to negate this medium-term bias.
Sell limit 3 at 0.9820, Objs: 0.9745/0.9650/0.9465, Stop: 0.9895.
The key resistance at 1.0329 broken.
AUD/USD sharply rose yesterday despite the key resistance at 1.0329 (26/09/2012 low and 38.2% retracement). The next horizontal resistances are at 1.0404 (01/10/2012 high) and 1.0475 (28/09/2012 high). An hourly support is at 1.0323 (11/09/2012 low).
The break of the resistance at 1.0329 has decreased the likelihood of a break of the support at 1.0177. Therefore, we have decided to close our strategy with a gain.
The sharp bounce near the support at 1.0177 favours a new test of the long-term declining trendline.
Our strategy has been stopped.
The short-term declining channel has been invalidated.
GBP/JPY has broken the resistance implied by the high of its declining channel and is now testing the horizontal resistance at 127.82 (05/10/2012 high). An hourly support is at 126.78 (17/10/2012 low).
GBP/JPY is moving within a long-term falling trend since April 2010. Nevertheless, the break of the short-term declining channel favours a test of this long-term downtrend.
We have therefore removed our strategy, as it is unlikely that the support at 123.70 will be tested in the short-term.
Our strategy has been removed.
Resistance at 103.86 is challenged.
EUR/JPY has broken out of its symmetrical triangle. The implied upside potential is 105.90. Monitor the test of the strong resistance area defined by the declining trendline and the previous high at 103.86. An hourly support is at 102.92 (17/10/2012 low).
EUR/JPY is moving in a long-term downtrend (linking the October 2009 top with the April 2011 top). The medium-term oscillators favour a test of this downtrend.
Buy limit 3 at 101.90, Objs: 102.80/103.60/107.50, Stop: 101.00.
Resistance at 0.8115 broken.
EUR/GBP has broken its declining trendline and its resistance at 0.8115. A test of the key horizontal resistance at 0.8169 is expected. A short-term support is at 0.8084 (intraday low).
We see the rise from 0.7755 as a countertrend move within a long-term downtrend. We need to see a break of the strong resistance area between 0.8115 (14/09/2012 high, see also declining trendline) and 0.8169 to negate this view.
Await fresh signal.
EUR/CHF has shown signs of strength since 5 September, which increases the likelihood of further medium-term strength.
The SNB has put a floor at 1.2000 on EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term.
In the long-term, we remain of the view that if EUR/USD can gather some downside momentum then it may be a step too far for the SNB to hold back the whole FX market.
Long 3 at 1.2121, Objs: 1.2243/1.2380/1.2474, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2012-09-18).
Pausing close to short-term resistance.
Gold has successfully tested its short-term support area between 1737 and 1721. However, the subsequent bounce is now pausing below the resistance at 1759 (intraday low and declining trendline).
The strong resistance area between 1791 and 1803, coupled with overbought conditions, favours a corrective phase.
Gold is in a secular uptrend with strong support at 1523.
Short 2 at 1775, Objs: 1690/1657, Stop: 1775 (Entered: 2012-09-27).
Bouncing within short-term downtrend.
Silver has broken its support at 33.37 (26/09/2012 low), which validates a short-term double-top. The implied theoretical target is 31.66. Further weakness is favoured as long as the resistance at 33.45 (50% retracement from the decline that started at 34.34) holds.
Silver, like Gold, has been able to hold above its key support. The break of the long-term declining trendline favours a lengthy sideways move. Long-term horizontal resistance is at 37.48.
Await fresh signal.