EUR/USD

No lower low has been made yet.

  • EUR/USD has broken its short-term rising trendline but has failed, thus far, to move below its previous low at 1.2804 (01/10/2012 low). This potential higher low could indicate a symmetrical triangle formation. Monitor the resistance implied by the declining trendline (around 1.3040).

  • Even though the long-term trend is still negative (see long-term declining trendline linking the May 2011 high with the August 2011 high), we need to see a break of the support at 1.2755 (see also 38.2% retracement) to suggest that the rise that started in July 2012 is over.

Await fresh signal.


GBP/USD

Bouncing near support at 1.5960.

  • GBP/USD has bounced near its short-term support at 1.5960 (10/09/2012 low and 38.2% retracement). Monitor the hourly resistance at 1.6067 (03/10/2012 low and 38.2% retracement).

  • GBP/USD is likely moving in a long-term horizontal range. The resistances given by 1.6302 (30/04/2012 high) and by the long-term declining trendline (linking the August 2009 top with the April 2011 top) favour a corrective phase.

Buy limit 3 at 1.5985, Objs: 1.6060/1.6120/1.6255, Stop: 1.5910.


USD/JPY

Recent strength favours a new test of the declining trendline.

  • USD/JPY is moving between its falling trendline and its short-term rising trendline. The short-term horizontal support is at 77.79. The short-term horizontal resistance can be found at 78.87 (05/10/2012 high).

  • USD/JPY is likely in a long-term bottoming process and is oversold in the medium-term time frame. We therefore expect to see a phase of strength in the short-term. Medium-term resistance is at 80.62.

Long 3 at 78.18, Objs: 79.47/80.62/83.00, Stop: 76.89 (Entered: 2012-09-20).


USD/CHF

Potential lower high in place.

  • USD/CHF has failed to break its resistance at 0.9438. The hourly support at 0.9323 is challenged. Monitor the short-term support at 0.9276 (see also rising trendline).

  • The break of prior support at 0.9423 (18/06/2012 low) opens the way for a mediumterm move towards the next horizontal support at 0.9043 (01/05/2012 low). Therefore, the rise from 0.9239 is viewed as a countertrend rally. A break of the resistance at 0.9660 (22/08/2012 high) is needed to negate this bearish bias.

Await fresh signal.


USD/CAD

Yesterday's bearish reversal favours a short-term negative bias.

  • USD/CAD sharply declined yesterday after opening higher. This intraday reversal favours a short-term weakness. A support area lies between 0.9736 (05/10/2012 low) and 0.9726 (19/09/2012 low).

  • The succession of lower highs since March 2009 favours an underlying bearish bias. Indeed, the break of the support at 0.9725 opens the way for a medium-term move towards the strong support at 0.9407. A break of the resistance at 0.9949 is needed to negate this bias.

Await fresh signal.


AUD/USD

Pushing higher towards declining trendline.

  • AUD/USD is bouncing after having tested its strong support at 1.0177. It is now getting close to its short-term resistance area defined by the declining trendline and the resistance at 1.0329 (26/09/2012 low).

  • A decisive break of the support at 1.0177 would confirm a bigger decline (see potential medium-term double-top).

  • The proximity of the long-term declining trendline, coupled with medium-term oscillators near overbought levels, favours a phase of weakness. A key resistance can be found at 1.0329.

Short 2 at 1.0430, Objs: 0.9980/0.9820, Stop: 1.0340 (Entered: 2012-09-11).


GBP/JPY

Bouncing.

  • GBP/JPY breached its hourly resistance at 125.84 (09/10/2012 high) yesterday. However, we still favour further weakness within the short-term declining channel. An hourly resistance is at 126.76 (05/10/2012 low).

  • GBP/JPY is moving within a long-term declining channel since April 2010. The sharp reversal near the high of its rising channel favours a move towards the strong support at 123.70, which would be an attractive entry point.

Buy limit 3 at 124.10, Objs: 125.00/127.60/128.70, Stop: 123.20.


EUR/JPY

Potential higher low in place.

  • EUR/JPY rose yesterday setting a potential higher low (compared to the 27/09/2012 low). Monitor the resistance implied by the short-term declining trendline (around 102.40). An hourly support is at 101.22 (intraday low).

  • EUR/JPY is moving in a long-term downtrend (linking the October 2009 top with the April 2011 top). However, the medium-term oscillators favour a test of this downtrend.

Await fresh signal.


EUR/GBP

New test of the declining trendline underway.

  • EUR/GBP is challenging again its declining trendline. Coupled with the strong resistance at 0.8115, we continue to favour a phase of weakness. Short-term support is at 0.7979 (02/10/2012 low).

  • We see the rise from 0.7755 as a countertrend move within a long-term downtrend. We need to see a break of the strong resistance area between 0.8115 (14/09/2012 high, see also declining trendline) and 0.8169 to negate this view.

Await fresh signal.


EUR/CHF

Moving sideways.

  • EUR/CHF has shown signs of strength since 5 September, which increases the likelihood of further medium-term strength.

  • The SNB has put a floor at 1.2000 on EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term.

  • In the long-term, we remain of the view that if EUR/USD can gather some downside momentum then it may be a step too far for the SNB to hold back the whole FX market.

Long 3 at 1.2121, Objs: 1.2243/1.2380/1.2474, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2012-09-18).


GOLD

Bouncing.

  • Gold has broken its short-term rising trendline, suggesting a short-term correcting phase. The current bounce is likely to find resistance at 1780 (09/10/2012 high). Short-term support is at 1737.

  • The strong resistance area between 1791 and 1803, coupled with overbought conditions, suggests limited short-term upside potential.

  • Gold is in a secular uptrend with strong support at 1523. Still, given the proximity of the aforementioned resistances and the current overextended rise, a phase of weakness is likely.

Short 3 at 1775, Objs: 1733/1690/1657, Stop: 1817 (Entered: 2012-09-27).


SILVER

Moving within its short-term horizontal range.

  • Silver is moving sideways since 14 September. The resistance at 35.17 (21/09/2012 high) has successfully been tested. A test of the support at 33.37 (26/09/2012 low) is likely. Monitor the hourly resistance at 34.23 (09/10/2012 high).

  • Silver, like Gold, has been able to hold above its key support. The break of the long-term declining trendline favours a lengthy sideways move. Long-term horizontal resistance at 37.48.

Await fresh signal.