EUR/USD

Retest of the broken resistance at 1.2971.

  • EUR/USD is testing the support implied by the broken resistance at 1.2971. The recent shortterm base formation (see also bearish head and shoulders in USD/CHF) favours further shortterm strength. Monitor the hourly support at 1.2968 (02/10/2012 high).

  • Even though the long-term trend is still negative (see long-term declining trendline linking the May 2011 high with the August 2011 high), the rise that started in July 2012 is likely not over yet.

Long 3 at 1.2970, Objs: 1.3070/1.3170/1.3280, Stop: 1.2870 (Entered: 2012-10-08).


GBP/USD

Moving back towards recent previous low at 1.6067.

  • GBP/USD is erasing all the gains made on 4 October. Coupled with the succession of lower highs and lower lows since 21 September, a short-term bearish bias is favoured. Monitor the test of the support at 1.6067. Another short-term support is at 1.5960.

  • GBP/USD is likely moving in a long-term horizontal range. The resistances given by 1.6302 (30/04/2012 high) and by the long-term declining trendline (linking the August 2009 top with the April 2011 top) favour a corrective phase.

Await fresh signal.


USD/JPY

Prices fading close to falling trendline.

  • USD/JPY failed to break the resistance implied by the declining trendline last Friday. An hourly support area is given by 78.28 (05/10/2012 low) and 78.12 (03/10/2012 low).

  • USD/JPY is likely in a long-term bottoming process and is oversold in the medium-term time frame. We therefore expect to see a phase of strength in the short-term. Medium-term resistance is at 80.62.

Long 3 at 78.18, Objs: 79.47/80.62/83.00, Stop: 76.89 (Entered: 2012-09-20).


USD/CHF

Challenging the short-term declining trendline.

  • USD/CHF has validated a bearish head and shoulders by moving below the support at 0.9329. The implied downside risk is 0.9239 as long as the resistance at 0.9347 (see declining channel) holds.

  • The break of prior support at 0.9423 opens the way for a medium-term move towards the next horizontal support at 0.9043. It also strengthens the resistance area between 0.9951 (61.8% retracement of the decline from June 2010 to August 2011) and 1.0067 (01/12/2010 high).

Await fresh signal.


USD/CAD

Sharp intraday swings.

  • USD/CAD erased most of its 5 October decline last Friday, which is short-term positive, thus we have removed our prior sell strategy. Monitor the hourly resistance at 0.9812 (05/10/2012 high).

  • The succession of lower highs since March 2009 favours an underlying bearish bias. Indeed, the break of the support at 0.9725 opens the way for a medium-term move towards the strong support at 0.9407. A break of the resistance at 0.9949 is needed to negate this bias.

Await fresh signal. Prior sell strategy removed.


AUD/USD

Challenging the key support at 1.0167/1.0177.

  • AUD/USD declined sharply on 5 October. It is now testing the strong support at 1.0177. A decisive break of this key support is needed to confirm a bigger decline (see potential mediumterm double-top). Short-term resistance is at 1.0329 (26/09/2012 low, see also 50% retracement).

  • The proximity of the long-term declining trendline, coupled with medium-term oscillators near overbought levels, favours a phase of weakness.

Short 2 at 1.0430, Objs: 0.9980/0.9820, Stop: 1.0340 (Entered: 2012-09-11).


GBP/JPY

Moving sharply lower.

  • GBP/JPY made a shooting star (a bearish candlestick pattern) on 5 October. A test of the short-term support at 125.35 (26/09/2012 low) is likely.

  • GBP/JPY is moving within a long-term declining channel since April 2010. The sharp reversal near the high of its rising channel favours a medium-term move towards the strong support at 123.70.

Await fresh signal.


EUR/JPY

Correcting recent sharp rise.

  • EUR/JPY has erased all the gains made on 5 October, indicating weakened buying pressure. A short-term corrective phase is likely underway. The hourly support area between 101.86 (intraday low and rising trendline) and 101.49 (intraday low and 38.2% retracement) is challenged. Key short-term support is at 100.85 (61.8% retracement).

  • EUR/JPY is moving in a long-term downtrend (linking the October 2009 top with the April 2011 top). However, the medium-term oscillators favour a test of this downtrend.

Long 2 at 99.81, Objs: 103.86/107.5, Stop: 100.60 (Entered: 2012-10-01).


EUR/GBP

Approaching key resistance area.

  • EUR/GBP has broken its resistance at 0.8059 (19/09/2012 high). It is now testing its declining trendline. Key horizontal resistance at 0.8115 (14/09/2012 high). An hourly support is at 0.8031 (05/10/2012 low).

  • We see the rise from 0.7755 as a countertrend move within a long-term downtrend. We need to see a break of the strong resistance area between 0.8095 (29/06/2012 high) and 0.8169 (see also declining trendline) to negate this view.

Await fresh signal.


EUR/CHF

Short-term upside momentum is improving.

  • EUR/CHF has shown signs of strength since 5 September, which increases the likelihood of further medium-term strength.

  • The SNB has put a floor at 1.2000 on EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term.

  • In the long-term, we remain of the view that if EUR/USD can gather some downside momentum then it may be a step too far for the SNB to hold back the whole FX market.

Long 3 at 1.2121, Objs: 1.2243/1.2380/1.2474, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2012-09-18).


GOLD

Strong resistance area suggests limited short-term upside potential.

  • Gold weakened on 5 October. It has moved below its hourly support at 1771. Monitor the other hourly support at 1764.

  • The strong resistance area between 1791 and 1803, coupled with overbought conditions, suggests limited short-term upside potential.

  • Gold is in a secular uptrend with strong support at 1523. Still, given the proximity of the aforementioned resistances and the current overextended rise, a phase of weakness is likely.

Short 3 at 1775, Objs: 1733/1690/1657, Stop: 1817 (Entered: 2012-09-27).


SILVER

Fading close to the key resistance at 35.17.

  • Silver is moving sideways since 14 September. The resistance at 35.17 (21/09/2012 high) has successfully been tested. A test of the support at 33.37 (26/09/2012 low) is now likely. An hourly resistance can be found at 34.59 (intraday high).

  • Silver, like Gold, has been able to hold above its key support. The break of the long-term declining trendline favours a lengthy sideways move. Long-term horizontal resistance at 37.48.

Await fresh signal.