EUR/USD
Testing the 200 day moving average and the short-term up trendline.
EUR/USD failed to break its hourly resistance at 1.2971 (25/09/2012) last Friday. It is now testing again its 200 day moving average and the shortterm up trendline. Key horizontal support at 1.2755 (11/09/2012 low).
The lack of a base formation or sell-off suggests that the recent Euro strength is a rebound within an underlying downtrend. The current weakness near the 38.2% retracement of the decline from May 2011 to July 2012 suggests limited short-term upside potential and the start of a new down phase.
Await fresh signal.
GBP/USD
Failure to break 1.6303 favours a longer correction.
GBP/USD fell sharply last Friday. Given the strong resistance at 1.6302, a longer corrective phase is likely. Monitor the support implied by the up trendline. Hourly resistance is at 1.6210.
GBP/USD is likely moving in a long-term horizontal range. The resistances given by 1.6302 and by the long-term down trendline (linking the August 2009 top with the April 2011 top) suggest limited short-term upside potential.
Our strategy has been stopped.
USD/JPY
Finally bouncing after seven straight days of decline.
USD/JPY finally saw some pickup in demand close to the recent low at 77.13. Short-term resistance is at 78.46 (20/09/2012 high).
USD/JPY is likely in a long-term bottoming process and is oversold in the medium-term time frame. We therefore expect to see a phase of strength in the short-term. Medium-term resistance is at 80.62.
Long 3 at 78.18, Objs: 79.47/80.62/83.00, Stop: 76.89 (Entered: 2012-09-20).
USD/CHF
Testing the resistance area near 0.9420.
USD/CHF is testing its resistance area near 0.9420 (13/09/2012 high, see also down trendlines and broken up trendline). We remain cautious as long as this resistance area holds. Hourly support is at 0.9329 (25/09/2012 low).
The break of the support at 0.9423 opens the way for a medium-term move towards the next horizontal support at 0.9043. It also strengthens the resistance area between 0.9951 (61.8% retracement of the decline from June 2010 to August 2011) and 1.0067 (01/12/2010 high).
Await fresh signal.
USD/CAD
Monitor the hourly range between 0.9782 and 0.9860.
USD/CAD completed a bearish engulfing pattern on 27 September. As long as the implied resistance at 0.9860 (26/09/2012 high) holds, further short-term weakness is favoured. Hourly support is at 0.9782 (28/09/2012 low).
The succession of lower highs since March 2009 favours an underlying bearish bias. Indeed, the break of the support at 0.9725 opens the way for a medium-term move towards the strong support at 0.9407. A break of the resistance at 0.9949 is needed to invalidate this bias.
Await fresh signal.
AUD/USD
Testing again the support at 1.0323.
AUD/USD declined sharply last Friday. It is now testing again its short-term support at 1.0323 (11/09/2012 low). A break below this level would open the way for a test of the strong support at 1.0177. Short-term resistance is at 1.0519 (21/09/2012 high).
The proximity of the down trendline, coupled with medium-term oscillators near overbought levels, favours a significant phase of weakness. However, should a break to the upside out of the symmetrical triangle occur, it would force us to review our strategy.
Short 3 at 1.0430, Objs: 1.0230/0.9980/0.9820, Stop: 1.0630 (Entered: 2012-09-11).
GBP/JPY
Testing short-term up trendline.
GBP/JPY has broken its support at 126.20 (07/09/2012 high) and is now testing its shortterm up trendline (see also hourly support at 125.35). Hourly resistance is at 126.71 (25/09/2012 high).
GBP/JPY is moving within a long-term declining channel since April 2010. The sharp reversal near the high of its rising channel favours a medium-term move towards the strong support at 123.70.
Await fresh signal.
EUR/JPY
Support area at 99.52 has held thus far.
EUR/JPY's decline seems to fade close to the support at 99.52. A short-term bounce is likely. Hourly resistance is at 101.05 (25/09/2012 high). Other support is at 97.89 (28/08/2012 low).
EUR/JPY is moving in a long-term downtrend. However, the medium-term oscillators favour a test of this downtrend.
Long 3 at 99.81, Objs: 102.12/103.86/107.5, Stop: 97.5 (Entered: 2012-10-01).
EUR/GBP
Pickup in buying pressure near support area.
EUR/GBP's decline is fading close to the up trendline. A short-term rebound is favoured. The resistance for a bounce is likely given by 0.8017 (19/09/2012 low).
We see the rise from 0.7755 as a countertrend move within a long-term downtrend. The recent signs of weakness near the strong resistance area between 0.8095 (29/06/2012 high) and 0.8169 (see also down trendline) favour a new medium-term phase of weakness.
Await fresh signal.
EUR/CHF
Pausing.
EUR/CHF has shown signs of strength since 5 September, which increases the likelihood of further medium-term strength.
The SNB has put a floor at 1.2000 on EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term.
In the long-term, we remain of the view that if EUR/USD can gather some downside momentum then it may be a step too far for the SNB to hold back the whole FX market.
Long 3 at 1.2121, Objs: 1.2243/1.2380/1.2474, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2012-09-18).
GOLD
Strong resistance area suggests limited short-term upside potential.
Gold is still supported by its up trendline. Hourly support is at 1737 (26/09/2012 low).
The "shooting star" on 21 September and the strong resistance area between 1791 and 1803 suggest limited short-term upside potential.
Gold is in a secular uptrend with strong support at 1523. Still, given the proximity of the aforementioned resistances and the current overextended rise, a phase of weakness is likely.
Short 3 at 1775, Objs: 1733/1690/1657, Stop: 1817 (Entered: 2012-09-27).
SILVER
Resistance area implied by previous highs intact thus far.
Silver failed to break the resistance area implied by its previous highs near 35.17 last Friday. Short-term support is at 33.37 (26/09/2012 low).
Silver, like Gold, has been able to hold above its key support. The break of the long-term down trendline favours a lengthy sideways move. Long-term horizontal resistance at 37.48.
Await fresh signal.
