EUR/USD

Moving lower.

  • EUR/USD posted a lower low yesterday, confirming the recent Euro weakness. A further corrective phase is favoured and should lead to a test of the support at 1.2755 (11/09/2012 low, see also 38.2% retracement from previous rise) in the short-term. Short-term resistance is at 1.3048 (21/09/2012 high).

  • The lack of a base formation or sell-off suggests that the recent Euro strength is a rebound within an underlying downtrend. The current weakness near the 38.2% retracement of the decline from May 2011 to July 2012 suggests limited short-term upside potential and the start of a new down phase.

Sell limit 3 at 1.3050, Objs: 1.2790/1.2510/1.2250, Stop: 1.3310.


GBP/USD

Overextended rise and strong resistance at 1.6302.

  • GBP/USD made a "shooting star" (a bearish candlestick pattern) on 21 September. Coupled with the proximity of the strong resistance at 1.6302 and the short-term overbought conditions, a phase of weakness is likely in the next few days. Short-term support is at 1.6164 (20/09/2012 low).

  • GBP/USD is likely moving in a long-term horizontal range. Still, the resistances given by 1.6302 and by the long-term down trendline (linking the August 2009 top with the April 2011 top) suggest limited short-term upside potential.

Short 3 at 1.6257, Objs: 1.6164/1.5980/1.5810, Stop: 1.6350 (Entered: 2012-09-25).


USD/JPY

Break of the support at 77.93.

  • USD/JPY has failed to break its resistance at 79.03 (see also down trendline) and has broken its short-term support at 77.93 (61.8% retracement of the rise from 77.13 to 79.22). A new test of the recent low at 77.13 is now likely. Hourly resistance is at 78.46 (20/09/2012 high).

  • USD/JPY is likely in a long-term bottoming process and is oversold in both the short-term and medium-term time frames. The weekly reversal near the support at 77.66 suggests a short-term exhaustion of selling pressure. Medium-term resistance is at 80.62.

Long 3 at 78.18, Objs: 79.47/80.62/83.00, Stop: 76.89 (Entered: 2012-09-20).


USD/CHF

Approaching resistance at 0.9420.

  • USD/CHF continues to grind higher. A test of the resistance at 0.9420 (13/09/2012 high) is likely. Support is at 0.9239 (14/09/2012 low).

  • The break of the support at 0.9423 opens the way for a medium-term move towards the next horizontal support at 0.9043. It also strengthens the resistance area between 0.9951 (61.8% retracement of the decline from June 2010 to August 2011) and 1.0067 (01/12/2010 high).

Await fresh signal.


USD/CAD

Resistance area is challenged.

  • USD/CAD is testing its resistance area between 0.9800 (previous support) and 0.9843 (21/08/2012 low). Short-term support is at 0.9726 (19/09/2012 low).

  • The succession of lower highs since March 2009 favours an underlying bearish bias. The break of the support at 0.9725 opens the way for a medium-term move towards the strong support at 0.9407.

Await fresh signal.


AUD/USD

Moving sideways.

  • AUD/USD made sharp reversals on 20 September (bullish) and 21 September (bearish). Monitor the implied support at 1.0368 (20/09/2012 low) and the implied resistance at 1.0519 (21/09/2012 high).

  • The proximity of the down trendline favours a significant phase of weakness. However, should a break to the upside out of the symmetrical triangle occur, it would force us to review our strategy.

Short 3 at 1.0430, Objs: 1.0230/0.9980/0.9820, Stop: 1.0630 (Entered: 2012-09-11).


GBP/JPY

Testing support at 126.20.

  • GBP/JPY is testing its support at 126.20 (07/09/2012 high). The resistances to monitor for a possible short-term bounce are 127.63 (21/09/2012 high) and 128.84 (19/09/2012 high).

  • GBP/JPY is moving within a long-term declining channel since April 2010. The recent sharp reversal near the high of its rising channel suggests limited short-term upside potential.

Await fresh signal.


EUR/JPY

The corrective phase is approaching its first support area.

  • EUR/JPY continues to move lower since its 17 September high (103.86). A test of the support at 99.52 (see also up trendline) is expected. Hourly resistance is at 102.10 (21/09/2012 high).

  • We remain focused on the long-term downtrend, which favours a return to the 94.00 region. Still, given the break of the resistance at 101.63, we would wait for a distributive pattern before initiating a short position.

Await fresh signal.


EUR/GBP

Breaking support level at 0.7967.

  • EUR/GBP is moving lower than its support at 0.7967 (11/09/2012, see also up trendline). The next support is at 0.7888 (05/09/2012 low, see also lower up trendline). Short-term resistance is at 0.8017 (19/09/2012 low).

  • We see the recent strength as a countertrend move within a long-term downtrend. The recent signs of weakness near the strong resistance area between 0.8095 (29/06/2012 high) and 0.8169 (see also down trendline) favour a new phase of weakness.

Await fresh signal.


EUR/CHF

Pausing.

  • EUR/CHF has shown signs of strength since 5 September, which increases the likelihood of further medium-term strength.

  • The SNB has put a floor at 1.2000 on EUR/CHF, which is expected to hold in the medium-term.

  • In the long-term, we remain of the view that if EUR/USD can gather some downside momentum then it may be a step too far for the SNB to hold back the whole FX market.

Long 3 at 1.2121, Objs: 1.2243/1.2380/1.2474, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2012-09-18).


GOLD

Sideways move still underway.

  • Gold has successfully tested its support at 1752 (18/09/2012). A short-term bounce is likely. Still, given the "shooting star" on 21 September and the strong resistance area between 1791 (29/02/2012) and 1803, the short-term upside potential seems limited.

  • Gold is in a secular uptrend with strong support at 1523. Still, given the proximity of the aforementioned resistances and the current overextended rise, a phase of weakness is likely.

Sell limit 3 at 1775, Objs: 1733/1690/1657, Stop: 1817.


SILVER

Monitor short-term horizontal channel.

  • Silver has moved out of its steep rising channel. Monitor the short-term horizontal range between the support at 33.81 (17/09/2012 low) and the resistance at 34.94 (14/09/2012 high).

  • Silver, like Gold, has been able to hold above its key support. The break of the long-term down trendline favours a lengthy sideways move. Long-term horizontal resistance at 37.48.

Await fresh signal.