EUR/USD

Strong resistance at 1.3004 breached.

  • EUR/USD has burst higher yesterday. The strong resistance at 1.3004 (which is also a psychological level) is failing, thus far, to cap Euro appreciation. The next strong horizontal resistance is at 1.3284. Hourly support is at 1.2977.

  • The lack of base formation or sell-off suggests that the current strength in EUR is a rebound within an underlying downtrend. Given the current overbought conditions, we are waiting for signs of weakness to initiate a short EUR position.

Long 1 at 1.5810, Obj: 1.6302, Stop: 1.6030 (Entered: 2012-08-24)


USD/JPY

Monitor potential reversal after breaking the support at 77.66.

  • USD/JPY has broken its key support at 77.66. However, the subsequent upside reversal could indicate a short-term exhaustion of the selling pressure. Monitor the resistance at 78.33 (10/09/2012 high).

  • USD/JPY is likely in a long-term bottoming process and is getting oversold both on a shortterm and medium-term time frame. However, we would wait for the short-term selling pressure to dry out before entering a long position.

Await fresh signal.


USD/CHF

Strong support area between 0.9368 and 0.9423 broken.

  • USD/CHF has broken its strong support area between 0.9423 and 0.9368 (see also up trendline and 200-day moving average). As long as the resistance at 0.9420 (13/09/2012) holds, the short-term technical configuration is negative.

  • The break of the support at 0.9423 opens the way for a move towards the next horizontal support at 0.9043. It also strengthens the resistance area between 0.9951 (61.8% retracement of the decline from 4 June 2010 to 12 August 2011) and 1.0067 (03/12/2010 high).

Long 3 at 0.9423, Objs: 0.9556/0.9800/0.9972, Stop: 0.9290 (Entered: 2012-09-11)


USD/CAD

Support at 0.9725 broken.

  • USD/CAD has broken its support at 0.9725. The technical configuration remains negative as long as the resistance at 0.9843 (21/08/2012 low) holds.

  • The break of the support at 0.9725 opens the way for a medium-term move towards the support at 0.9407, forcing us to review our strategy.

Our strategy has been stopped.


AUD/USD

Testing strong resistance area.

  • AUD/USD has burst higher yesterday. It is now testing the resistance area given by the longterm down trendline and 1.0613 (09/08/2012 high). Support is at 1.0427 (12/09/2012 low).

  • A break of the above-mentioned resistance area would force us to review our strategy. Indeed, it would likely open the way for further medium-term strength.

Short 3 at 1.0430, Objs: 1.0230/0.9980/0.9820, Stop: 1.0630 (Entered: 2012-09-11)


GBP/JPY

The resistance at 125.84 is challenged.

  • GBP/JPY is pushing higher towards its recent highs (126.20). Short-term support at 124.49 (13/09/2012 low).

  • GBP/JPY has broken its resistance at 123.99 (12/07/2012 high). A second upleg (the first upleg started from the low at 118.81 to 125.84) towards 127.86 is favoured as long as the support at 123.70 holds.

Await fresh signal.


EUR/JPY

A test of the strong resistance at 101.63 is underway.

  • EUR/JPY is likely in the late stage of its uptrend that started on 25 July. Still, no sign of weakness is visible yet. Monitor the test of the strong resistance at 101.63. Support can be found at 99.52 (11/09/2012 low).

  • We remain focused on the long-term downtrend, which favours a return to the 94.00 region. We would like to initiate a short position when the short-term uptrend will show significant signs of weakness coupled with overbought conditions.

Await fresh signal.


EUR/GBP

Pushing higher.

  • EUR/GBP continues to move higher. Resistance can be found at 0.8095 (29/06/2012, see also down trendline). Support is at 0.7997 (13/09/2012 low).

  • Despite the bullish breakout at 0.7963, we still view the current strength as a countertrend move within a long-term downtrend. We are therefore waiting for signs of exhaustion in the current uptrend, especially near strong resistance area.

Await fresh signal.


EUR/CHF

Resistance at 1.2147 is challenged.

  • EUR/CHF has successfully tested its resistance at 1.2147. A break to the upside is needed to suggest that a new trend is in place.

  • In the long-term, we remain of the view that if EUR/USD can gather some downside momentum then it may be a step too far for the SNB to hold back the whole FX market.

Stand aside for now.


GOLD

Overextended rise and approaching strong resistance area.

  • Gold has resumed its uptrend after its shortterm pause. After the break of the resistance at 1762, Gold is now moving towards the strong resistance at 1803.

  • The long-term support at 1523 has held and the long-term succession of lower highs has been invalidated. We therefore favour a longterm sideways move. Given the strong resistances in the 1800 area and the short-term overbought conditions, a phase of weakness is likely.

Await fresh signal.


SILVER

Pushing higher.

  • Silver has moved higher yesterday, breaking the resistance at 33.41. The short-term support is given by 32.51 (12/09/2012 low).

  • Silver, like Gold, has been able to hold above its key long-term support. The break of the longterm down trendline favours a long-term sideways move. Long-term horizontal resistance at 37.48.

Await fresh signal.