EUR/USD

No recent higher high.

  • EUR/USD is starting to lose momentum as can be seen by the lack of a higher high since August 23. Moreover, the rising wedge (a bearish technical pattern) is still intact. A break of the support at 1.2431 (22/08/2012 low) is needed to suggest the end of the rise that started at 1.2043.

  • Given the lack of base formation, the recent strength in EUR is seen as a rebound within an underlying downtrend. We would therefore look at signs of weakness coupled with overbought conditions to initiate a new short EUR position.

Await fresh signal.


GBP/USD

Grinding higher.

  • GBP/USD has successfully tested its short-term up trendline on 28 August. The low on that day (i.e. 1.5755) is now a short-term support. Resistance is given by 1.5907 (61.8% retracement).

  • GBP/USD has broken to the upside out of its 2- month consolidation. Given the theoretical target at 1.6192 (based on projection), further GBP strength is expected.

Long 3 at 1.5810, Objs: 1.5912/1.6190/1.6302, Stop: 1.5708 (Entered: 2012-08-24).


USD/JPY

Still moving sideways for the time being.

  • USD/JPY is moving sideways since 23 August. But it is likely still under the bearish influence of its 22 August decline. Therefore, we favour at least a new test of the recent low at 78.28 (22/08/2012 low) in the next few days.

  • USD/JPY has been able to remain above its key support at 77.66. A return close to this level, coupled with oversold conditions, would be an interesting area to initiate a long USD/JPY position.

Await fresh signal.


USD/CHF

Pause within short-term downtrend.

  • USD/CHF is moving within its declining channel. Even though no new low has been made since 23 August, the decline on 28 August suggests persistent selling pressure. A push lower towards the strong support area between 0.9423 and 0.9368 (21/05/2012 low) is still likely.

  • We see the current USD/CHF weakness as a counter-trend move within an underlying uptrend. We are therefore looking to initiate a long USD/CHF position close to the aforementioned support area.

Buy limit 3 at 0.9423, Objs: 0.9556/0.9800/0.9972, Stop: 0.9290.


USD/CAD

Moving higher after successful test of the 21 August low.

  • USD/CAD has successfully tested its 21 August low, which confirms a short-term limited downside potential. Monitor the hourly resistance at 0.9918 to gauge the strength of the current bullish momentum.

  • The strong support at 0.9800 and the deeply oversold conditions favour the start of a bottoming process. Given the long-term horizontal trend, we see the current weakness near the 27 April low as a good opportunity to initiate a long USD position.

Buy limit 3 at 0.9835, Objs: 0.9970/1.0085/1.0232, Stop: 0.9700.


AUD/USD

New low indicates an increasing selling pressure.

  • AUD/USD has broken its rising channel, which confirms an increasing selling pressure. Further weakness is favoured towards 1.0177 (25/07/2012 low).

  • We expect weakness in AUD/USD after the successful test of the long-term downtrend at 1.0613 and the sell signal given by short-term oscillators (suggesting a negative momentum).

Sell limit 3 at 1.0430, Objs: 1.0230/0.9980/0.9820, Stop: 1.0630.


GBP/JPY

Technical improvements visible.

  • GBP/JPY has improved since 28 August (bullish reversal on 28th and strong up move on 29th). The low at 123.70 (28/08/2012 low) is now a key support.

  • GBP/JPY has broken its resistance at 123.99 (12/07/2012 high). A second upleg is likely underway (the first upleg started from the low at 118.81 to 125.84). The first objective is 125.84 (21/06/2012 high), then possibly 127.86.

Await fresh signal.


EUR/JPY

Sideways move continues.

  • EUR/JPY is likely in the late stage of its uptrend that started on 25 July. A break of the support at 97.73 (17/08/2012 low) would confirm this bearish scenario.

  • We remain focused on the long-term downtrend, which favours a return to the 94.00 region. Coupled with overbought conditions, we would like to initiate a short position when the short-term uptrend will show significant signs of weakness.

Await fresh signal.


EUR/GBP

Break over the 0.7930 region warns of fresh strength.

  • EUR/GBP has today seen a break back over 0.7930, breaking the short-term weakness that had been in place. This now favours a re-test of the 0.7963 high.

  • A break over this level will be deemed shortterm bullish with scope then for a rise to test longer-term trendline resistance, currently near 0.8000.

  • Any such move will lead us to lock in our profit taken on the first third of our strategy, by exiting the remainder at entry.

Short 2 at 0.7960, Objs: 0.7760/0.7400, Stop: 0.7960 (Entered: 2012-08-06).


EUR/CHF

SNB maintains floor for the time being.

  • EUR/CHF remains within a tight range making it untradeable from a non-scalping perspective.

  • We remain of the view that if EUR/USD can gather some downside momentum then it may be a step too far for the SNB to hold back the whole FX market.

  • In the meantime we remain neutral.

Stand aside for now.


GOLD

Corrective phase underway.

  • Gold has not been able, thus far, to break its resistance at 1672. Despite the upside potential at 1730 (implied by the bullish breakout from the symmetrical triangle), we favour a short-term corrective phase. The support at 1635 is likely to hold.

  • The key long-term support at 1523 has held. Still, the long-term succession of lower highs since the 6 September high (i.e. 1921) favours a cautious view.

Await fresh signal.


SILVER

Pause underway.

  • Silver is moving sideways since its bearish oneday reversal on 27 August. The shallow price retracement thus far indicates a still strong buying pressure. Support in the 30.00 region is likely to hold.

  • Silver, like Gold, has been able to hold above its key long-term support. A break of this support (i.e. 26.07) is needed for further significant weakness (i.e. toward the 20.00 region).

Await fresh signal.