EUR/USD

The rising wedge favours a bearish bias.

  • EUR/USD is still moving within its rising wedge (a bearish technical pattern). A break of the support at 1.2431 (22/08/2012 low) is needed to suggest the end of the rise that started at 1.2043.

  • Given the lack of base formation, the recent strength in EUR is seen as a rebound within an underlying downtrend. We would therefore look at signs of weakness coupled with overbought conditions to initiate a new short EUR position.

Await fresh signal.


GBP/USD

Support area under pressure.

  • GBP/USD continues to weaken. Still, it has successfully tested the support implied by its short-term up trendline. As long as our stop level holds (i.e. 1.5708), we see the current weakness as a pullback within an underlying bullish trend.

  • GBP/USD has broken to the upside out of its 2- month consolidation. Given the theoretical target at 1.6192 (based on projection), further GBP strength is expected.

Long 3 at 1.5810, Objs: 1.5912/1.6190/1.6302, Stop: 1.5708 (Entered: 2012-08-24).


USD/JPY

The recent bounce is fading.

  • USD/JPY strength is fading after having reached the 50% retracement from the 22 August decline. The renewed selling pressure is now likely to try to push USD/JPY lower.

  • USD/JPY has been able to remain above its key support at 77.66. A return close to this level, coupled with oversold conditions, would be an interesting area to initiate a long USD/JPY position.

Await fresh signal.


USD/CHF

Still grinding higher.

  • USD/CHF is moving higher within its declining channel. We still expect to see a push lower towards the strong support area between 0.9423 and 0.9368 (21/05/2012 low).

  • We see the current USD/CHF weakness as a counter-trend move within an underlying uptrend. We are therefore looking to initiate a long USD/CHF position close to the aforementioned support area.

Buy limit 3 at 0.9423, Objs: 0.9556/0.9800/0.9972, Stop: 0.9290.


USD/CAD

Monitor hourly range between 0.9886 and 0.9949.

  • USD/CAD bounce is fading. A break of the hourly support at 0.9886 would suggest a retest of the 21 August low.

  • The strong support at 0.9800 and the deeply oversold conditions favour the start of a bottoming process. Given the long-term horizontal trend, we see the current weakness near the 27 April low as a good opportunity to initiate a long USD position.

Buy limit 3 at 0.9835, Objs: 0.9970/1.0085/1.0232, Stop: 0.9700.


AUD/USD

Rising channel broken.

  • AUD/USD has broken its rising channel, which confirms an increasing selling pressure. Despite a possible pullback, further weakness is favoured towards 1.0177 (25/07/2012 low).

  • We expect weakness in AUD/USD after the successful test of the long-term downtrend at 1.0613 and the sell signal given by short-term oscillators (suggesting a negative momentum).

Sell limit 3 at 1.0430, Objs: 1.0230/0.9980/0.9820, Stop: 1.0630.


GBP/JPY

Support at 123.89 breached.

  • GBP/JPY has moved below its hourly support at 123.89. Given the overbought conditions, we would see a break of the up trendline as a strong bearish sign.

  • GBP/JPY has broken its resistance at 123.99 (12/07/2012 high). A second upleg is likely underway (the first upleg started from the low at 118.81 to 125.84). The first objective is 125.84 (21/06/2012 high), then 127.86.

Await fresh signal.


EUR/JPY

Support at 97.73 intact.

  • EUR/JPY has weakened since 21 August. Still, the short-term uptrend from 94.12 is still in place as long as the hourly support at 97.73 (17/08/2012 low) holds.

  • We remain focused on the long-term downtrend, which favours a return to the 94.00 region. Coupled with overbought conditions, we would like to initiate a short position when the short-term uptrend will show significant signs of weakness.

Await fresh signal.


EUR/GBP

Lower high sought versus 0.7963.

  • EUR/GBP remains within a large corrective phase. While under 0.7963 we seek a lower high versus this swing high for a resumption lower.

  • Over 0.7963 (06/08/2012 high) will neutralise our current bearish bias. In the meantime, we continue to expect a return to the old trading range between 0.6500 and 0.7000.

Short 2 at 0.7960, Objs: 0.7760/0.7400, Stop: 0.7960 (Entered: 2012-08-06).


EUR/CHF

SNB maintains floor for the time being.

  • EUR/CHF remains within a tight range making it untradeable from a non-scalping perspective.

  • We remain of the view that if EUR/USD can gather some downside momentum then it may be a step too far for the SNB to hold back the whole FX market.

  • In the meantime we remain neutral.

Stand aside for now.


GOLD

Resistance at 1672 intact thus far.

  • Gold has not been able, thus far, to break its resistance at 1672 (see also down trendline). The upside potential at 1730 (implied by the bullish breakout from the symmetrical triangle) still favours a bullish bias. Support at 1635.

  • The key support at 1523 has held. Still, the long-term succession of lower highs since the 6 September high (i.e. 1921) favours a cautious view.

Await fresh signal.


SILVER

Bearish reversal on 27 August suggests a weakening momentum.

  • Silver made a one-day bearish reversal on 27 August. Coupled with short-term overbought conditions and the proximity of the resistance at 31.44 (see also down trendline), a short-term corrective phase is likely to occur in the next few days.

  • Silver, like Gold, has been able to hold above its key medium-term support. A break of this support (i.e. 26.07) is needed for further significant weakness (i.e. toward the 20.00 region).

Await fresh signal.