EUR/USD

Above 1.2444 to end near-term bearish bias.

  • EUR/USD saw a minor break under daily channel support last week that failed to garner momentum. We would thus view a push back over 1.2444 as being a short-term bullish signal and have hence moved our stop to rest just above the recent high at 1.2444.

  • A retest of this area is now under way, where strong resistance is expected.

  • Event risk is set to dominate this pair in the days ahead, so a strict stop is warranted.

Short 2 at 1.2740, Objs: 1.2000/1.1300, Stop: 1.2450 (Entered: 18/06/2012).


GBP/USD

Test of previous highs underway.

  • GBP/USD remains under the positive influence of its succession of higher lows that started on 12 July. Monitor the new test of the resistance at 1.5793.

  • GBP/USD has been largely range bound for the last two months. We remain biased to the downside in line with our general view on the US Dollar despite the recent short-term technical improvements.

Await fresh signal.


USD/JPY

Short-term pause underway after sharp rise.

  • USD/JPY is pausing after its sharp rise. The support at 79.10 (38.2% retracement from the 13 August rise) is likely to contain the short-term weakness.

  • USD/JPY has been able to remain above its key support at 77.66. The impulsive move from the short-term consolidation around 77.90 calls for a test of the resistance at 80.62.

  • This then brings back the idea of accumulating long positions in USD/JPY. For now trade location is deemed to be poor. We await further short-term structure ahead of strategy formulation.

Await fresh signal.


USD/CHF

Returns to test the 0.9657 low.

  • USD/CHF continues to edge lower to target the 0.9657 low. Although the medium-term structure remains bullish we are aware of the link to EUR/USD via the fixed floor in EUR/CHF. Due to the large amount of event risk in EUR/USD we choose to wait on the sidelines and have removed the prior long strategy at 0.9630.

  • Back under 0.9423 is required to neutralise our medium-term bullish bias.

Long strategy removed. Await signal.


USD/CAD

Overextended decline approaching support area.

  • USD/CAD is likely in the last stage of its decline that started at 1.0447. Indeed, USD/CAD is close to its strong support at 0.9800 and is deeply oversold. A short-term return of demand for USD Dollars is expected to occur in the next few days.

  • Given the long-term horizontal trend, we see the current weakness near the 27 April low as a good opportunity to initiate a long USD position.

Buy limit 3 at 0.9835, Objs: 0.9970/1.0085/1.0232, Stop: 0.9700.


AUD/USD

Initial support seen close to 1.0444 high.

  • Stop adjusted to 1.0540.

  • AUD/USD has found initial support close to the prior key high at 1.0444. If a break over 1.0529 (17/08/2012 high) can be achieved then this will weaken the bearish structure in favour of a return to the prior high at 1.0613. We are thus moving our stop to 1.0540.

  • However, should a lower high form, we would then expect a retest of the 1.0350 region, close to daily channel support.

Short 2 at 1.0595, Objs: 1.0370/1.0200, Stop: 1.0540 (Entered: 2012-08-06).


GBP/JPY

Small price retracement calls for a move towards 125.84.

  • GBP/JPY is pausing after its sharp rise. Given the small decline in price thus far (indicating an underlying strong bullish momentum), further GBP appreciation is expected.

  • GBP/JPY has broken its resistance at 123.99 (12/07/2012 high). A second upleg is likely underway (the first upleg started from the low at 118.81 to 125.84). The first objective is 125.84 (21/06/2012 high).

  • No clear medium-term trend, however shortterm strength is expected.

Buy limit 3 at 124.00, Objs: 125.00/126.40/127.80, Stop: 123.00.


EUR/JPY

Short-term bounce approaching resistance at 98.76.

  • EUR/JPY strength is still underway. Monitor the resistance at 98.76 (61.8% retracement from the 21 June high). A break of this level would open the way for further EUR appreciation towards 101.63.

  • We remain focused on the multi-month downtrend, which favours a return to the 94.00 region. Therefore, we would look for signs of weakness close to the aforementioned resistances to initiate a short position.

Await fresh signal.


EUR/GBP

Hourly consolidation favoured to resolve lower.

  • EUR/GBP has a daily structure that is dominated by a daily falling channel. With this in mind we view the current hourly rise as being part of a larger consolidation which is favoured to resolve lower to target the daily channel support.

  • Over 0.7963 (06/08/2012 high) will neutralise our current bearish bias.

Short 2 at 0.7960, Objs: 0.7760/0.7400, Stop: 0.7960 (Entered: 2012-08-06).


EUR/CHF

SNB maintains floor for the time being.

  • EUR/CHF remains within a tight range making it untradeable from a non-scalping perspective.

  • We remain of the view that if EUR/USD can gather some downside momentum then it may be a step too far for the SNB to hold back the whole FX market.

  • In the meantime we remain neutral.

Stand aside for now.


GOLD

High of symmetrical triangle challenged.

  • Gold is testing its resistance at 1629. Looking at the bullish breakout in Silver, further shortterm strength in Gold is favoured. Next resistance can be found at 1641.

  • The weak rebound thus far from the mediumterm support at 1522.65 and the strong resistances in the 1629-1671 region (symmetrical triangle, 200 day moving average and down trendline) favour a medium-term bearish bias.

Await fresh signal.


SILVER

Bullish breakout at 28.45. Further shortterm strength expected.

  • Silver has broken its resistance at 28.45. A test of the next resistance at 29.90 is anticipated

  • The resistance at 29.90 is expected to be hard to break, especially given the proximity of the declining 200 day moving average.

  • Silver, like Gold, is close to its key mediumterm support. A break of this support (i.e. 26.07) is needed for further significant weakness (i.e. toward the 20.00 region).

Await fresh signal.