Edges higher towards old double top at 1.2443.
EUR/USD is edging closer to the old double top at 1.2443 where strong resistance is anticipated.
The deep pullback that we are witnessing in the US Dollar Index is what is ultimately required to set up a large move higher, provided the key low at 81.161 (18/06/2012 low) is not breached.
Back over 1.2443 will dampen our bearish bias.
Short 2 at 1.2740, Objs: 1.2000/1.1300, Stop: 1.2520 (Entered: 18/06/2012).
Grinding higher toward resistance at 1.5793.
GBP/USD is moving toward its resistance at 1.5793. Meanwhile, short-term oscillators are approaching overbought readings.
GBP/USD has been largely range bound for the last two months. We remain biased to the downside in line with our general view on the US Dollar.
A medium-term retest of the strong support at 1.5235 is still favoured.
While above 1.5459, look to sell near 1.5740.
Returns to test the top of the recent range.
USD/JPY has swung from the lower bound to the upper bound of its recent trading range following overnight trade. We expect strong resistance near 78.80, for a return to the lows near 77.94.
The Yen crosses are likely to offer greater trading opportunities, however, we keep a close eye on USD/JPY looking for longer-term positioning to enable accumulation of a long position. The favoured region for this is under 77.652, which is also likely to be an area of interest to the BOJ.
Buy limit 3 at 77.75, Objs: 78.25/78.75/80.00, Stop: 77.25.
A break under the recent low at 0.9657 remains feasible.
USD/CHF continues to edge lower to target the 0.9657 low. However, we remain bullish and view the region under 0.9657 as a zone of potential strong support.
In any case we view the structure present since 0.8931 as being strongly positive and look for an eventual break back over 0.9972 to target 1.0300 initially and then higher.
Back under 0.9423 is required to neutralise our current bullish bias.
Buy limit3 at 0.9630, Objs: 0.9730/0.9980/1.0300, Stop: 0.9530.
Strong support near 0.9800.
USD/CAD is still under the influence of its short-term downtrend. The first resistance to monitor is the 10 August high at 0.9970.
Given the short-term oversold conditions and the significant supports area near 0.9800, we would see further short-term weakness toward the 27 April low as a good opportunity to initiate a long USD position.
While above 0.9726, look to buy near 0.9800.
A break under 1.0500 is required to open up the 1.0350 region.
AUD/USD retested the 1.0500 region again yesterday reaching 1.0497. We need to see a sustained break under this region to open up scope for a return to 1.0350.
Failure to find support close to 1.0350, if tested, would warn of a much larger fall.
AUD/USD is deemed to be in a phase similar to that of cable in the first half of 2008. We thus see scope for a substantial topping formation.
Short 3 at 1.0595, Objs: 1.0450/1.0350/1.0200, Stop: 1.0650 (Entered: 2012-08-06).
A test of the high of the short-term range is likely.
GBP/JPY is pushing higher toward the high of its short-term horizontal range between 120.83 and 123.99 (12/07/2012 high). A break of this resistance would open the way for a rise toward 125.84.
No clear medium-term trend, but the succession of lower highs since the 21 June favours a bearish bias. A retest of the recent low at 118.81 is likely.
Await fresh signal.
Rises to probe the region near 97.82 again.
EUR/JPY continues to grind higher this time being driven by movements in both USD/JPY and EUR/USD. The region just above 97.82 is seen as a good entry point for shorts, however, the structure of our trades would unfortunately see us stopped out of our current strategy.
We remain focused on the multi-month weekly wedge, which favours a return to the 94.00 region.
Failure to remain under 98.33 (28/06/2012 low) will warn of a substantial push higher.
Short 2 at 97.80, Objs: 94.00/90.00, Stop: 97.80 (Entered: 2012-08-07).
Lower high sought in the current region.
EUR/GBP is correcting higher after testing the 2 August low at 0.7825. We view this as a shortterm move which should remain capped by the 0.7900 region. Between 0.7880 (08/08/2012 low) and 0.7900 is viewed as a reasonable zone for short positioning.
We note the formation of a daily falling channel with support currently near 0.7695, another viable medium-term target.
Over 0.7963 (06/08/2012 high) will neutralise our current bearish bias.
Short 2 at 0.7960, Objs: 0.7760/0.7400, Stop: 0.7960 (Entered: 2012-08-06).
SNB maintains floor for the time being.
EUR/CHF remains within a tight range making it untradeable from a non-scalping perspective.
We remain of the view that if EUR/USD can gather some downside momentum then it may be a step too far for the SNB to hold back the whole FX market.
In the meantime we remain neutral.
Stand aside for now.
Significant resistances area intact so far.
Gold is still moving within its symmetrical triangle. Monitor also the resistance at 1641.03 and the declining 200 day moving average.
The weak rebound thus far from the mediumterm support at 1522.65 calls for a retest of this key support in the weeks ahead.
Await fresh signal.
The 3 July high at 28.45 has held so far.
The resistance at 28.45 has successfully been tested on the 13 August.
Given the current technical configuration, the upside potential is expected to be capped by the resistance at 29.90.
Silver, like Gold, is close to its key mediumterm support. A break of this support (i.e. 26.07) is needed for further significant weakness (i.e. toward the 20.00 region).
Sell stop 3 at 26.05, Objs: 25.05/23.50/21.00, Stop: 27.05.