EUR/USD

Edges higher towards old double top at 1.2443.

  • EUR/USD is edging closer to the old double top at 1.2443 where strong resistance is anticipated.

  • The deep pullback that we are witnessing in the US Dollar Index is what is ultimately required to set up a large move higher, provided the key low at 81.161 (18/06/2012 low) is not breached.

  • Back over 1.2443 will dampen our bearish bias.

Short 2 at 1.2740, Objs: 1.2000/1.1300, Stop: 1.2520 (Entered: 18/06/2012).


GBP/USD

Grinding higher toward resistance at 1.5793.

  • GBP/USD is moving toward its resistance at 1.5793. Meanwhile, short-term oscillators are approaching overbought readings.

  • GBP/USD has been largely range bound for the last two months. We remain biased to the downside in line with our general view on the US Dollar.

  • A medium-term retest of the strong support at 1.5235 is still favoured.

While above 1.5459, look to sell near 1.5740.


USD/JPY

Returns to test the top of the recent range.

  • USD/JPY has swung from the lower bound to the upper bound of its recent trading range following overnight trade. We expect strong resistance near 78.80, for a return to the lows near 77.94.

  • The Yen crosses are likely to offer greater trading opportunities, however, we keep a close eye on USD/JPY looking for longer-term positioning to enable accumulation of a long position. The favoured region for this is under 77.652, which is also likely to be an area of interest to the BOJ.

Buy limit 3 at 77.75, Objs: 78.25/78.75/80.00, Stop: 77.25.


USD/CHF

A break under the recent low at 0.9657 remains feasible.

  • USD/CHF continues to edge lower to target the 0.9657 low. However, we remain bullish and view the region under 0.9657 as a zone of potential strong support.

  • In any case we view the structure present since 0.8931 as being strongly positive and look for an eventual break back over 0.9972 to target 1.0300 initially and then higher.

  • Back under 0.9423 is required to neutralise our current bullish bias.

Buy limit3 at 0.9630, Objs: 0.9730/0.9980/1.0300, Stop: 0.9530.


USD/CAD

Strong support near 0.9800.

  • USD/CAD is still under the influence of its short-term downtrend. The first resistance to monitor is the 10 August high at 0.9970.

  • Given the short-term oversold conditions and the significant supports area near 0.9800, we would see further short-term weakness toward the 27 April low as a good opportunity to initiate a long USD position.

While above 0.9726, look to buy near 0.9800.


AUD/USD

A break under 1.0500 is required to open up the 1.0350 region.

  • AUD/USD retested the 1.0500 region again yesterday reaching 1.0497. We need to see a sustained break under this region to open up scope for a return to 1.0350.

  • Failure to find support close to 1.0350, if tested, would warn of a much larger fall.

  • AUD/USD is deemed to be in a phase similar to that of cable in the first half of 2008. We thus see scope for a substantial topping formation.

Short 3 at 1.0595, Objs: 1.0450/1.0350/1.0200, Stop: 1.0650 (Entered: 2012-08-06).


GBP/JPY

A test of the high of the short-term range is likely.

  • GBP/JPY is pushing higher toward the high of its short-term horizontal range between 120.83 and 123.99 (12/07/2012 high). A break of this resistance would open the way for a rise toward 125.84.

  • No clear medium-term trend, but the succession of lower highs since the 21 June favours a bearish bias. A retest of the recent low at 118.81 is likely.

Await fresh signal.


EUR/JPY

Rises to probe the region near 97.82 again.

  • EUR/JPY continues to grind higher this time being driven by movements in both USD/JPY and EUR/USD. The region just above 97.82 is seen as a good entry point for shorts, however, the structure of our trades would unfortunately see us stopped out of our current strategy.

  • We remain focused on the multi-month weekly wedge, which favours a return to the 94.00 region.

  • Failure to remain under 98.33 (28/06/2012 low) will warn of a substantial push higher.

Short 2 at 97.80, Objs: 94.00/90.00, Stop: 97.80 (Entered: 2012-08-07).


EUR/GBP

Lower high sought in the current region.

  • EUR/GBP is correcting higher after testing the 2 August low at 0.7825. We view this as a shortterm move which should remain capped by the 0.7900 region. Between 0.7880 (08/08/2012 low) and 0.7900 is viewed as a reasonable zone for short positioning.

  • We note the formation of a daily falling channel with support currently near 0.7695, another viable medium-term target.

  • Over 0.7963 (06/08/2012 high) will neutralise our current bearish bias.

Short 2 at 0.7960, Objs: 0.7760/0.7400, Stop: 0.7960 (Entered: 2012-08-06).


EUR/CHF

SNB maintains floor for the time being.

  • EUR/CHF remains within a tight range making it untradeable from a non-scalping perspective.

  • We remain of the view that if EUR/USD can gather some downside momentum then it may be a step too far for the SNB to hold back the whole FX market.

  • In the meantime we remain neutral.

Stand aside for now.


GOLD

Significant resistances area intact so far.

  • Gold is still moving within its symmetrical triangle. Monitor also the resistance at 1641.03 and the declining 200 day moving average.

  • The weak rebound thus far from the mediumterm support at 1522.65 calls for a retest of this key support in the weeks ahead.

Await fresh signal.


SILVER

The 3 July high at 28.45 has held so far.

  • The resistance at 28.45 has successfully been tested on the 13 August.

  • Given the current technical configuration, the upside potential is expected to be capped by the resistance at 29.90.

  • Silver, like Gold, is close to its key mediumterm support. A break of this support (i.e. 26.07) is needed for further significant weakness (i.e. toward the 20.00 region).

Sell stop 3 at 26.05, Objs: 25.05/23.50/21.00, Stop: 27.05.