Short-term structure favours supply near 1.2300.
EUR/USD has continued lower, as expected, after forming a minor double top at 1.2443. Short-term structure continues to favour fresh supply on a return to the 1.2300 region. A push back over 1.2342 (06/08/2012 low) is required to dampen this near-term bearish structure.
The US Dollar Index is also showing signs of strength with a break back over 83.508 (02/08/2012 high) warning of a fresh leg higher to break over the annual high at 84.100.
Longer-term a return to the 1.1000 region, close to multi-week channel support remains feasible.
SHORT 2 at 1.2740, Objs: 1.2000/1.1300, Stop: 1.2520 (Entered: 18/06/2012).
Weakening momentum near resistance at 1.5740.
The resistances at 1.5738 and 1.5793 are likely to put a lid on GBP appreciation. Potential lower high in place on August 9.
GBP/USD has been largely range bound for the last two months. We remain biased to the downside in line with our general view on the US Dollar.
A medium-term retest of the strong support at 1.5235 is still favoured.
While above 1.5459, look to sell near 1.5740.
Hourly consolidation manages to increase the range high by 1 pip!
USD/JPY continues to test the upside of the recent two week range. In doing so the range high was extended by 1 pip to 78.80, ahead of a relapse.
If a break under 77.94 can be achieved this would then target the 77.652 region, where a recovery higher would be favoured.
The region between 75.35 and 77.652 is deemed to be a region of interest to the BOJ and also represents an area where longer-term short positioning in JPY generally may occur.
Buy limit 3 at 77.75, Objs: 78.25/78.75/80.00, Stop: 77.25.
Higher low possibly in place at 0.9657.
USD/CHF has potentially printed a higher low at 0.9657. However, we require a sustained push above the 0.9800 region before abandoning our current strategy.
In any case we view the structure present since 0.8931 as being strongly bullish and look for an eventual break back over 0.9972 to target 1.0300 initially and then higher.
Back under 0.9423 is required to neutralise our current bullish bias.
Buy limit 3 at 0.9630, Objs: 0.9730/0.9980/1.0300, Stop: 0.9530.
Overextended decline and approaching strong support level.
In the short-term, the rate of USD depreciation is unlikely to be sustainable.
Given the current overextended decline and the significant support area near 0.9800, we would see further short-term weakness toward the April 27 low as a good opportunity to initiate a long USD position.
While above 0.9726, look to buy near 0.9800.
Next targets the 1.0450 region.
AUD/USD has relapsed from the 1.0600 region to currently test around 1.0500. We anticipate a further swing lower to target the 1.0450 zone next. If 1.0436 (02/08/2012 low) can be breached to the downside this will register the rise over the daily channel resistance as a false break higher.
Failure to find support close to 1.0350 will warn of a much larger fall.
AUD/USD is deemed to be in a phase similar to that of cable in the first half of 2008. We thus see scope for a substantial topping formation.
SHORT 3 at 1.0595, Objs: 1.0450/1.0350/1.0200, Stop: 1.0650 (Entered: 2012-08-06).
Weakening momentum in line with cable.
Monitor the short-term range between the support at 120.83 and the resistance at 123.99 (July 12 high). The direction of the break is expected to give us the next short-term trend.
No clear medium-term trend, but the succession of lower highs since June 21 favours a bearish bias. A retest of the recent low at 118.81 is likely.
Await fresh signal.
Short-term structure favours further downside.
EUR/JPY exhibits a short-term structure that suggests scope for a further test lower and a retest of the 95.00 region ahead of a return back to weekly falling wedge support.
A break out of this multi-month weekly wedge is required ahead of a potential bullish reversal formation.
Failure to remain under 98.33 (28 June low) will warn of a substantial push higher.
SHORT 2 at 97.80, Objs: 94.00/90.00, Stop: 97.80 (Entered: 2012-08-07).
Further extension lower favoured to target 0.7850 initially.
First objective met. Stop moved to entry.
EUR/GBP also exhibits a short-term structure that is suggestive of further downside to retest the 0.7755 annual low.
We note the formation of a daily falling channel with support currently near 0.7695, another viable medium-term target.
Over 0.7963 (06/08/2012 high) will neutralise our current bearish bias.
SHORT 2 at 0.7960, Objs: 0.7760/0.7400, Stop: 0.7960 (Entered: 2012-08-06).
SNB maintains floor for the time being.
EUR/CHF remains within a tight range making it untradeable from a non-scalping perspective.
We remain of the view that if EUR/USD can gather some downside momentum then it may be a step too far for the SNB to hold back the whole FX market.
In the meantime we remain neutral.
Stand aside for now.
Weakening momentum close to resistances area.
The symmetrical triangle and the resistance at 1641.03 imply significant supply pressures near current prices.
The weak rebound thus far from the mediumterm support at 1522.65 calls for a retest of this key support in the weeks ahead.
Await fresh signal.
Resistance at 28.45 has held so far.
In the short-term, Silver still struggles to move above its July 3 high at 28.45.
Given the current technical configuration, the upside potential is expected to be capped by the resistance at 29.90.
Silver, like Gold, is close to its key mediumterm support. A break of this support (i.e. 26.07) is needed for further significant weakness (i.e. toward the 20.00 region).
Sell stop 3 at 26.05, Objs: 25.05/23.50/21.00, Stop: 27.05.