EUR/USD

Short-term structure favours supply near 1.2300.

  • EUR/USD has continued lower, as expected, after forming a minor double top at 1.2443. Short-term structure continues to favour fresh supply on a return to the 1.2300 region. A push back over 1.2342 (06/08/2012 low) is required to dampen this near-term bearish structure.

  • The US Dollar Index is also showing signs of strength with a break back over 83.508 (02/08/2012 high) warning of a fresh leg higher to break over the annual high at 84.100.

  • Longer-term a return to the 1.1000 region, close to multi-week channel support remains feasible.

SHORT 2 at 1.2740, Objs: 1.2000/1.1300, Stop: 1.2520 (Entered: 18/06/2012).


GBP/USD

Weakening momentum near resistance at 1.5740.

  • The resistances at 1.5738 and 1.5793 are likely to put a lid on GBP appreciation. Potential lower high in place on August 9.

  • GBP/USD has been largely range bound for the last two months. We remain biased to the downside in line with our general view on the US Dollar.

  • A medium-term retest of the strong support at 1.5235 is still favoured.

While above 1.5459, look to sell near 1.5740.


USD/JPY

Hourly consolidation manages to increase the range high by 1 pip!

  • USD/JPY continues to test the upside of the recent two week range. In doing so the range high was extended by 1 pip to 78.80, ahead of a relapse.

  • If a break under 77.94 can be achieved this would then target the 77.652 region, where a recovery higher would be favoured.

  • The region between 75.35 and 77.652 is deemed to be a region of interest to the BOJ and also represents an area where longer-term short positioning in JPY generally may occur.

Buy limit 3 at 77.75, Objs: 78.25/78.75/80.00, Stop: 77.25.


USD/CHF

Higher low possibly in place at 0.9657.

  • USD/CHF has potentially printed a higher low at 0.9657. However, we require a sustained push above the 0.9800 region before abandoning our current strategy.

  • In any case we view the structure present since 0.8931 as being strongly bullish and look for an eventual break back over 0.9972 to target 1.0300 initially and then higher.

  • Back under 0.9423 is required to neutralise our current bullish bias.

Buy limit 3 at 0.9630, Objs: 0.9730/0.9980/1.0300, Stop: 0.9530.


USD/CAD

Overextended decline and approaching strong support level.

  • In the short-term, the rate of USD depreciation is unlikely to be sustainable.

  • Given the current overextended decline and the significant support area near 0.9800, we would see further short-term weakness toward the April 27 low as a good opportunity to initiate a long USD position.

While above 0.9726, look to buy near 0.9800.


AUD/USD

Next targets the 1.0450 region.

  • AUD/USD has relapsed from the 1.0600 region to currently test around 1.0500. We anticipate a further swing lower to target the 1.0450 zone next. If 1.0436 (02/08/2012 low) can be breached to the downside this will register the rise over the daily channel resistance as a false break higher.

  • Failure to find support close to 1.0350 will warn of a much larger fall.

  • AUD/USD is deemed to be in a phase similar to that of cable in the first half of 2008. We thus see scope for a substantial topping formation.

SHORT 3 at 1.0595, Objs: 1.0450/1.0350/1.0200, Stop: 1.0650 (Entered: 2012-08-06).


GBP/JPY

Weakening momentum in line with cable.

  • Monitor the short-term range between the support at 120.83 and the resistance at 123.99 (July 12 high). The direction of the break is expected to give us the next short-term trend.

  • No clear medium-term trend, but the succession of lower highs since June 21 favours a bearish bias. A retest of the recent low at 118.81 is likely.

Await fresh signal.


EUR/JPY

Short-term structure favours further downside.

  • EUR/JPY exhibits a short-term structure that suggests scope for a further test lower and a retest of the 95.00 region ahead of a return back to weekly falling wedge support.

  • A break out of this multi-month weekly wedge is required ahead of a potential bullish reversal formation.

  • Failure to remain under 98.33 (28 June low) will warn of a substantial push higher.

SHORT 2 at 97.80, Objs: 94.00/90.00, Stop: 97.80 (Entered: 2012-08-07).


EUR/GBP

Further extension lower favoured to target 0.7850 initially.

  • First objective met. Stop moved to entry.

  • EUR/GBP also exhibits a short-term structure that is suggestive of further downside to retest the 0.7755 annual low.

  • We note the formation of a daily falling channel with support currently near 0.7695, another viable medium-term target.

  • Over 0.7963 (06/08/2012 high) will neutralise our current bearish bias.

SHORT 2 at 0.7960, Objs: 0.7760/0.7400, Stop: 0.7960 (Entered: 2012-08-06).


EUR/CHF

SNB maintains floor for the time being.

  • EUR/CHF remains within a tight range making it untradeable from a non-scalping perspective.

  • We remain of the view that if EUR/USD can gather some downside momentum then it may be a step too far for the SNB to hold back the whole FX market.

  • In the meantime we remain neutral.

Stand aside for now.


GOLD

Weakening momentum close to resistances area.

  • The symmetrical triangle and the resistance at 1641.03 imply significant supply pressures near current prices.

  • The weak rebound thus far from the mediumterm support at 1522.65 calls for a retest of this key support in the weeks ahead.

Await fresh signal.


SILVER

Resistance at 28.45 has held so far.

  • In the short-term, Silver still struggles to move above its July 3 high at 28.45.

  • Given the current technical configuration, the upside potential is expected to be capped by the resistance at 29.90.

  • Silver, like Gold, is close to its key mediumterm support. A break of this support (i.e. 26.07) is needed for further significant weakness (i.e. toward the 20.00 region).

Sell stop 3 at 26.05, Objs: 25.05/23.50/21.00, Stop: 27.05.