EUR/USD

Consolidation continues under recent 1.2443 highs.

  • EUR/USD remains just under the 1.2443 highs in a consolidation pattern that is favoured to resolve lower.

  • If a break under 1.2134 can be achieved (02/08/2012 low) then this will increase the probability of a substantial extension lower, to target the support of the multi-month daily channel, currently near 1.1570.

  • We also note a similar bearish channel in the weekly time frame with support near 1.1000.

SHORT 2 at 1.2740, Objs: 1.2000/1.1300, Stop: 1.2520 (Entered: 18/06/2012).


GBP/USD

Consolidation still in place with resistance at 1.5740.

  • While above 1.5459, further short-term strength is still possible. But the resistances at 1.5738 and 1.5793 are likely to put a lid on GBP appreciation.

  • GBP/USD has been largely range bound for the last two months. We remain biased to the downside in line with our general view on the US Dollar.

  • A medium-term retest of the strong support at 1.5235 is still favoured.

While above 1.5459, look to sell near 1.5740.


USD/JPY

Two week consolidation continues.

  • USD/JPY remains in a two week consolidation phase after failing to break over 78.79 at the beginning of the week. Resolution to the down side is still favoured.

  • If a break under 77.94 can be achieved this would then target the 77.652 region, where a recovery higher would then be favoured.

  • The region between 75.35 and 77.652 is deemed to be a region of interest to the BOJ and also represents an area where longer-term short positioning in JPY generally may occur.

Buy limit 3 at 77.75, Objs: 78.25/78.75/80.00, Stop: 77.25.


USD/CHF

Higher low sought versus 0.9423.

  • USD/CHF remains within the midst of a corrective phase lower. We seek a higher low versus 0.9423, preferably in the region close to 0.9600.

  • In any case we view the structure present since 0.8931 as being strongly bullish and look for an eventual break back over 0.9972 to target 1.0300 initially and then higher.

  • Back under 0.9423 is required to neutralise our current bullish bias.

Buy limit3 at 0.9630, Objs: 0.9730/0.9980/1.0300, Stop: 0.9530.


USD/CAD

Downside pressure still underway.

  • The bearish trend that started on June 4 is still underway.

  • Given the current overextended decline and the significant support area near 0.9800, we would see further short-term weakness toward the April 27 low as a good opportunity to initiate a long USD position.

Long stopped at 0.9950. Await fresh signal.


AUD/USD

Short-term attempts higher face initial supply.

  • AUD/USD continues to try and break meaningfully over the 1.0600 area but has thus far met supply forcing it lower. A fall to the 1.0350 region is anticipated ahead of a possible higher low versus 1.0177.

  • Failure to find support close to 1.0350 will warn of a much larger fall.

  • Bigger picture we see scope for a longer-term topping formation over coming weeks.

SHORT 3 at 1.0595, Objs: 1.0450/1.0350/1.0200, Stop: 1.0650 (Entered: 2012-08-06).


GBP/JPY

Bearish bias still favoured in line with cable.

  • Monitor the short-term range between the support at 120.83 and the resistance at 123.99 (July 12 high). The direction of the break is expected to give us the next short-term trend.

  • No clear medium-term trend, but the weak rebound thus far from 118.81 favours a bearish bias. A retest of the recent low at 118.81 is favoured.

Await fresh signal.


EUR/JPY

Retest of the 94.00 region favoured.

  • First target met. Stop moved to entry.

  • EUR/JPY next targets the 96.58 low under which will favour a retest of the 95.00 region and then a return back to weekly falling wedge support.

  • A break out of this multi-month weekly wedge is required ahead of a potential bullish reversal formation.

  • Failure to remain under 98.33 (28 June low) will warn of a substantial push higher.

SHORT 2 at 97.80, Objs: 94.00/90.00, Stop: 97.80 (Entered: 2012-08-07).


EUR/GBP

Further extension lower favoured to target 0.7850 initially.

  • Stop lowered to 0.7965.

  • EUR/GBP broke under 0.7924 (7 August low) to add to the evolving short-term bearish structure. This now favours a further extension lower to retest the 0.7850 region.

  • Longer-term we anticipate a move back into the old trading range between 0.6500 and 0.7000.

  • Over 0.8054 (04 July high) will neutralise our current bearish bias.

SHORT 3 at 0.7960, Objs: 0.7860/0.7760/0.7400, Stop: 0.7965 (Entered: 2012-08-06).


EUR/CHF

SNB maintains floor for the time being.

  • EUR/CHF remains within a tight range making it untradeable from a non-scalping perspective.

  • We remain of the view that if EUR/USD can gather some downside momentum then it may be a step too far for the SNB to hold back the whole FX market.

  • In the meantime we remain neutral.

Stand aside for now.


GOLD

Symmetrical triangle still underway.

  • The symmetrical triangle suggests significant supply near current prices.

  • The weak rebound thus far from the mediumterm support at 1522.65 calls for a retest of this key support in the weeks ahead.

Await fresh signal.


SILVER

Consolidation after successful test of the support at 26.07.

  • On the short-term, the successful test of the support at 26.07 at the end of June calls for a rebound. Given the current technical configuration, the upside potential is expected to be capped by the resistance at 29.90.

  • Silver, like Gold, is close to its key mediumterm support. A break of this support (i.e. 26.07) is needed for further significant weakness (i.e. toward the 20.00 region).

Sell stop 3 at 26.05, Objs: 25.05/23.50/21.00, Stop: 27.05.