Consolidation continues under recent 1.2443 highs.
EUR/USD remains just under the 1.2443 highs in a consolidation pattern that is favoured to resolve lower.
If a break under 1.2134 can be achieved (02/08/2012 low) then this will increase the probability of a substantial extension lower, to target the support of the multi-month daily channel, currently near 1.1570.
We also note a similar bearish channel in the weekly time frame with support near 1.1000.
SHORT 2 at 1.2740, Objs: 1.2000/1.1300, Stop: 1.2520 (Entered: 18/06/2012).
Consolidation still in place with resistance at 1.5740.
While above 1.5459, further short-term strength is still possible. But the resistances at 1.5738 and 1.5793 are likely to put a lid on GBP appreciation.
GBP/USD has been largely range bound for the last two months. We remain biased to the downside in line with our general view on the US Dollar.
A medium-term retest of the strong support at 1.5235 is still favoured.
While above 1.5459, look to sell near 1.5740.
Two week consolidation continues.
USD/JPY remains in a two week consolidation phase after failing to break over 78.79 at the beginning of the week. Resolution to the down side is still favoured.
If a break under 77.94 can be achieved this would then target the 77.652 region, where a recovery higher would then be favoured.
The region between 75.35 and 77.652 is deemed to be a region of interest to the BOJ and also represents an area where longer-term short positioning in JPY generally may occur.
Buy limit 3 at 77.75, Objs: 78.25/78.75/80.00, Stop: 77.25.
Higher low sought versus 0.9423.
USD/CHF remains within the midst of a corrective phase lower. We seek a higher low versus 0.9423, preferably in the region close to 0.9600.
In any case we view the structure present since 0.8931 as being strongly bullish and look for an eventual break back over 0.9972 to target 1.0300 initially and then higher.
Back under 0.9423 is required to neutralise our current bullish bias.
Buy limit3 at 0.9630, Objs: 0.9730/0.9980/1.0300, Stop: 0.9530.
Downside pressure still underway.
The bearish trend that started on June 4 is still underway.
Given the current overextended decline and the significant support area near 0.9800, we would see further short-term weakness toward the April 27 low as a good opportunity to initiate a long USD position.
Long stopped at 0.9950. Await fresh signal.
Short-term attempts higher face initial supply.
AUD/USD continues to try and break meaningfully over the 1.0600 area but has thus far met supply forcing it lower. A fall to the 1.0350 region is anticipated ahead of a possible higher low versus 1.0177.
Failure to find support close to 1.0350 will warn of a much larger fall.
Bigger picture we see scope for a longer-term topping formation over coming weeks.
SHORT 3 at 1.0595, Objs: 1.0450/1.0350/1.0200, Stop: 1.0650 (Entered: 2012-08-06).
Bearish bias still favoured in line with cable.
Monitor the short-term range between the support at 120.83 and the resistance at 123.99 (July 12 high). The direction of the break is expected to give us the next short-term trend.
No clear medium-term trend, but the weak rebound thus far from 118.81 favours a bearish bias. A retest of the recent low at 118.81 is favoured.
Await fresh signal.
Retest of the 94.00 region favoured.
First target met. Stop moved to entry.
EUR/JPY next targets the 96.58 low under which will favour a retest of the 95.00 region and then a return back to weekly falling wedge support.
A break out of this multi-month weekly wedge is required ahead of a potential bullish reversal formation.
Failure to remain under 98.33 (28 June low) will warn of a substantial push higher.
SHORT 2 at 97.80, Objs: 94.00/90.00, Stop: 97.80 (Entered: 2012-08-07).
Further extension lower favoured to target 0.7850 initially.
Stop lowered to 0.7965.
EUR/GBP broke under 0.7924 (7 August low) to add to the evolving short-term bearish structure. This now favours a further extension lower to retest the 0.7850 region.
Longer-term we anticipate a move back into the old trading range between 0.6500 and 0.7000.
Over 0.8054 (04 July high) will neutralise our current bearish bias.
SHORT 3 at 0.7960, Objs: 0.7860/0.7760/0.7400, Stop: 0.7965 (Entered: 2012-08-06).
SNB maintains floor for the time being.
EUR/CHF remains within a tight range making it untradeable from a non-scalping perspective.
We remain of the view that if EUR/USD can gather some downside momentum then it may be a step too far for the SNB to hold back the whole FX market.
In the meantime we remain neutral.
Stand aside for now.
Symmetrical triangle still underway.
The symmetrical triangle suggests significant supply near current prices.
The weak rebound thus far from the mediumterm support at 1522.65 calls for a retest of this key support in the weeks ahead.
Await fresh signal.
Consolidation after successful test of the support at 26.07.
On the short-term, the successful test of the support at 26.07 at the end of June calls for a rebound. Given the current technical configuration, the upside potential is expected to be capped by the resistance at 29.90.
Silver, like Gold, is close to its key mediumterm support. A break of this support (i.e. 26.07) is needed for further significant weakness (i.e. toward the 20.00 region).
Sell stop 3 at 26.05, Objs: 25.05/23.50/21.00, Stop: 27.05.