EUR/USD

Sustained above 1.2408 required to weaken the bearish bias.

  • EUR/USD appears to be in the midst of a corrective phase. In a similar manner to EUR/JPY we look for a re-test of the recent low at 1.2063 to guage if the pullback is complete at 1.2390.

  • A sustained break over 1.2408 is required to weaken the current bearish bias.

  • Longer-term in we focus on a weekly channel that suggests scope for a return to the 1.1000 region and potentially lower.

SHORT 2 at 1.2740, Objs: 1.2000/1.1300, Stop: 1.2520 (Entered: 18/06/2012)


GBP/USD

Corrects lower ahead of a favoured swing higher.

  • GBP/USD has now recovered to push back over 1.5738 in recent trade. This now suggests that the corrective phase from 1.5269 is still in force, with scope for an eventual return to 1.5793 over coming sessions.

  • This opens up two strategies; either a long strategy but at much lower levels, or a short strategy above 1.5793.

  • The range bound nature of this pair will make it important

Await fresh signal.


USD/JPY

A re-test of 77.94 is now anticipated.

  • USD/JPY saw a minor corrective phase recently which peaked at 78.74. This correction is now deemed to be over, with scope for a re-test of the 77.94, close to our second objective at 77.85.

  • Medium-term we remain of the view that a brief re-test of the all-time low at 75.35 is feasible.

  • A return to the 75.35 region is expected to offer a good entry zone for longer-term buying strategies. Also, the region under 77.65, if tested, may attract the attention of the BOJ.

SHORT 2 at 79.75, Objs: 77.85/75.35, Stop: 79.20 (Entered: 02/07/2012)


USD/CHF

Higher low sought in current region.

  • USD/CHF corrected lower rapidly over recent sessions after making a fresh annual high at 0.9972. A higher low versus 0.9423 is now sought in the current zone for a resumption of the larger trend higher.

  • Medium-term we see scope for a return to the 1.0450 region from where a larger corrective phase may commence.

  • Back under 0.9423 is required to dampen our current bullish bias.

Buy limit 3 at 0.9710, Objs: 0.9810/1.0100/1.0450, Stop: 0.9610


USD/CAD

Lack of dynamic movement lower suggests oversold conditions.

  • USD/CAD has been grinding lower after breaking under the 1.0066/63 platform and clearing out weak longs. We see scope for a minimum recovery higher from the current region.

  • This area remains one which offers a good trade location, in line with our expectation of further USD strength.

  • A push back under the 0.9800 level is required to neutralise our medium-term bullish bias.

LONG 3 at 1.0050, Objs: 1.0150/1.0400/1.0700, Stop: 0.9950 (Entered: 2012-07-27)


AUD/USD

Correction expected near the 1.0600 region.

  • AUD/USD has now broken over 1.0475 warning of a final squeeze higher towards the 1.0550 region. In fact, the daily channeling formation that we are seeing suggests medium-term exhaustion.

  • The short-term time frame is also exhibiting signs of exhaustion with scope for a pullback from the 1.0550 region to re-test near 1.0300 again.

  • Longer-term we continue to expect the completion of a large topping formation with scope for a substantial swing lower.

Await fresh signal.


GBP/JPY

Fiday's break over 122.84 suggests further upside.

  • GBP/JPY has pushed above the 122.84 region now warning of the potential for further gains to challenge the 125.84 level once again.

  • Back under 120.83 is required to turn the nearterm bias back to a bearish stance.

Missed buy await fresh signal.


EUR/JPY

Possible lower high in place at 97.34.

  • EUR/JPY has a long term structure present since 101.63, which suggests that 97.34 may be a lower high, with scope now for a fresh swing lower to test weekly wedge support near 94.00, where a further push lower would then be anticipated.

  • We now look for a re-test of the recent low at 94.12, before placing a bearish strategy.

  • Back over 98.33 (28 June low) will neutralise our current bearish stance, in favour of a recovery higher.

Looking to sell.


EUR/GBP

Remains within a corrective phase higher.

• EUR/GBP continues to look weak in the medium-term time frame. • Ultimately we seek a return to the old trading range (2003-2007) between 0.6500 and 0.7000. • We now look for signs of short-term exhaustion ahead of trade formulation.

Await fresh signal.


EUR/CHF

SNB maintains floor for the time being.

  • EUR/CHF remains within a tight range making it untradeable from a non-scalping perspective.

  • We remain of the view that if EUR/USD can gather some downside momentum then it may be a step too far for the SNB to hold back the whole FX market.

  • In the meantime we remain neutral.

Stand aside for now.


GOLD

Break higher lacks momentum warning of a trap.

  • Gold has seen a minor break above the triangular consolidation pattern that has contained the price for the last two months.
    However, given our view in the USD Index we are wary of participating in this break higher, as a return to Dolllar strength has the potential to reverse this move. At present we view near-term strength as a possible trap.

Further upside momentum required to avoid trap.


SILVER

Range bound trade continues.

  • Silver, unlike gold remains range bound, with a mild downwards trend still intact.

  • We would be willing to participate from the long side if a break over 29.9007 could be achieved over coming sessions. However, a fast break under the 26.1600 level remains viable, which would then target the 20.0000 region, where strong support would be anticipated.

  • As with gold we prefer to remain on the side lines for now. In fact, it is movements in silver that make us wary of the recent break higher in gold.

Await fresh signal.