EUR/USD
Consolidation continues amid volatile trade.
EUR/USD remains in a tight consolidation band between 1.2150 and 1.2320. Scope is seen for a short-term burst higher to re-test the 1.2320 region, where a lower high is favoured to form.
Failure to meet resistance in the 1.2320 region will warn of further near-term strength towards 1.2380, where strong resistance would be anticipated.
Our expectations of a lower high in EUR/USD are due to the expectation that there will be support near 82.80 in the USD Index, which maintains its bullish structure for the time being.
SHORT 2 at 1.2740, Objs: 1.2000/1.1300, Stop: 1.2740 (Entered: 18/06/2012)
GBP/USD
Short-term trading pattern is dictated by a longer-term sideways trend.
GBP/USD is still deemed to be within the midst of a larger corrective phase that started at 1.5269. With this in mind we see scope for a further rise to re-test the 1.5793 region, above which a lower high would be favoured to form.
However, given our bullish view in the US Dollar, we still think that longer-term there is scope for GBP/USD to return to the base of the recent trading range. This is our strategy; to try and buy/sell near the extremes of the range.
Missed buy await fresh signal.
USD/JPY
Slow downside progress, as anticipated.
USD/JPY is making slow grinding process to the downside, as expected. We are now in a risk free trade, with the stop moved to entry.
Our next target lies at 77.652, beyond which will open up 75.35. A return to this level is anticipated to be short lived in nature.
We now look for the 200 day moving average to act as resistance for a resumption of weakness.
SHORT 2 at 79.75, Objs: 77.50/75.35, Stop: 79.75 (Entered: 02/07/2012)
USD/CHF
Continues corrective phase towards the 0.9700 region.
USD/CHF continues to weaken amidst a shortterm corrective phase that is anticipated to find support close to 0.9700.
Should this level be met, strong support would be anticipated, with scope then for a further extension higher towards 1.0150 and then 1.0400.
Back under 0.9423 is required to dampen our current bullish bias.
Buy limit 3 at 0.9700, Objs: 0.9850/1.0150/1.0400, Stop: 0.9550
USD/CAD
Maintains foothold above 1.0101 for now.
USD/CAD is managing to maintain its foothold above the key low at 1.0101. However, as noted in yesterday's report, a break under 1.0101 would be deemed as a short-term move. Thus we would look to re-buy at 1.0050, objectives at 1.0150/1.0400 and then 1.0700, with a stop at 0.9950.
A push back under the 0.9800 level is required to neutralise our medium-term bullish bias.
This pair is not expected to spend too much time below the 200 day moving average, if indeed it is tested again.
LONG 3 at 1.0160, Objs: 1.0250/1.0560/1.0800. Please see page., Stop: 1.0100 (Entered: 13/07/2012)
AUD/USD
Break over 1.0329 anticipated to be short lived.
AUD/USD continues to move higher after stopping the remainder of our short position at entry in trade yesterday. Scope is now seen for a test of the 1.0329 high. However, any such break would be expected to be short-term in nature.
Longer-term we continue to expect the formation of a longer-term top and the scope for a large swing lower.
We await the evolution of short-term structure ahead of trade formulation.
Await fresh signal with a bias to shorts.
GBP/JPY
Grind higher in tandem with GBP/USD.
GBP/JPY continues to grind higher in line with the movement in GBP/USD.
Given our continued bullish view in GBP/USD we see scope for further upside in GBP/JPY, as USD/JPY is not expected to be too dynamic to the downside, if indeed it does move in our preferred direction.
With the above in mind we await confirmation of a break under 122.05 before amending our strategy.
EUR/JPY
Remains within a short-term corrective phase higher.
EUR/JPY is within the midst of a volatile corrective phase that has the potential to test the 97.50 region, where a lower high would be expected to form.
We remain focused on the longer-term structure which is dominated by a multi-month falling channel with support near 94.00. Ultimately we seek a break under this support, ahead of a potential recovery higher.
Back over 98.33 (28 June low) will neutralise our current bearish stance, in favour of a recovery higher.
EUR/GBP
Lower high sought for a fresh swing to the downside.
EUR/GBP is bouncing from oversold conditions.
We continue to believe that there is scope for a return to the old trading range between 0.6500 and 0.7000 over coming weeks and months.
In an effort to gain good trade location we seek a reasonable pullback before attempting shorts. We have however lowered our sell strategy in light of recent price action.
Sell limit 3 at 0.7950, Objs: 0.7870/0.7700/0.7500, Stop: 0.8030
EUR/CHF
SNB maintains floor for the time being.
EUR/CHF remains within a tight range making it untradeable from a non-scalping perspective.
We remain of the view that if EUR/USD can gather some downside momentum then it may be a step too far for the SNB to hold back the whole FX market.
In the meantime we remain neutral.
Stand aside for now.
GOLD
Locked in a range-bound trading environment.
Gold has been in a lengthy sideways movement for the large part of two months.
Although we are neutral until a breakout can be achieved, we see the 1520-25 region as being key to any further gains. A break under this region is likely to have significant implications, with substantially lower prices anticipated.
Await breakout.
SILVER
29.9007 remains the key that bulls need to break over.
Silver has also been largely range-bound.
We would be willing to participate from the long side if a break over 29.9007 could be achieved over coming days and weeks. However, in the meantime, we remain wary of a fast break under the 26.1600 level which would then target the 20.0000 region, where strong support would be anticipated.
As with gold we prefer to remain on the side lines for now.
Await fresh signal.
