Approaches a region of resistance. Lower high sought.
EUR/USD remains within the midst of a shortterm corrective phase higher. The 1.2300 region has already been met, with scope for yet further near-term gains. However, strong resistance would be expected close to 1.2380, should this level be met.
Back under 1.2163 will warn of a substantial extension lower assuming that 1.2408 (28 June low) is not breached to the upside.
In a similar manner to EUR/USD, the USD Index is also correcting lower. A higher low is now sought above the 82.879 high made on 28 June.
SHORT 2 at 1.2740, Objs: 1.2000/1.1300, Stop: 1.2740 (Entered: 2012-06-18)
Further rise favoured to test the 1.5793 region.
Missed buy. Await fresh signal.
GBP/USD found strong support on Friday, close to our desired entry point at 1.5350, reaching 1.5394.
Scope is now seen for a further bout of strength to challenge the 1.5793 high again, ahead of the creation of a longer lasting high, for a resumption of weakness.
Trade location is key to success in cable as it remains within a long-term trading range and thus lacks longer-term directional momentum.
Missed buy. Await fresh signal.
Short-term rise tests the 200 day moving average as resistance.
First objective met. Stop moved to entry.
USD/JPY pushed clearly under the 200 day moving average yesterday. Today has seen a corrective phase higher to re-test this same average as resistance.
Contrary to the movement in other currency pairs USD/JPY is acting like a true safe haven despite the correction in the USD Index.
Sustained under the 200 day moving average will target the key low at 77.652.
SHORT 2 at 79.75, Objs: 77.50/75.35, Stop: 79.75 (Entered: 2012-07-02)
Move lower seen as a short-term corrective phase.
USD/CHF is dominated by structure in the mid to long-term that is decidedly bullish.
The move down to the 0.9700 region that we had been anticipating is now underway. Should this level be met we see scope for strong support from this region.
An earlier break back over the recent high at 0.9870 will favour a substantial extension higher towards 1.0400.
Buy limit 3 at 0.9700, Objs: 0.9850/1.0150/1.0400, Stop: 0.9550.
Under 1.0101 would likely see strong support near 1.0050-60.
USD/CAD remains above the 200 day moving average after testing it in trade at the beginning of the month.
Scope is now seen for a further push higher to re-test 1.0250 (12 July high).
Failure to hold above 1.0101 will warn of a fall to the 1.0050 region which will lead us to revert to our old strategy of buying at 1.0050, with targets at 1.0150/1.0400/1.0700, with a stop at 0.9950.
Back under the 0.9800 level is required to neutralise our medium-term bullish bias.
LONG 3 at 1.0160, Objs: 1.0250/1.0560/1.0800. Please see page., Stop: 1.0100 (Entered: 2012-07-13).
Rises to re-test the 200 day moving average again.
AUD/USD continues to trade close to the 200 day moving average and the remainder of our short position has now been removed at the point of entry to preserve the small gain that we made on the first third of the position.
Scope still exists for strong resistance to manifest close to the current region, however, we prefer to wait on the sidelines to see signs of stronger resistance.
In line with our view in the USD Index, we see scope for a much larger swing lower in this key risk currency pairing over the medium-term.
Remainder of short position stopped at entry.
Recovery higher looks fragile.
GBP/JPY saw a strong recovery higher on Friday. However, this has failed to see a strong follow through this week.
This now makes 122.05 (12 July low) a key low, with a sustained push under this level suggesting that our expectations of a return to 127.00 may be misplaced.
We await confirmation of a break under 122.05 before amending our strategy.
Sell limit 3 at 127.00, Objs: 125.00/120.00/117.00, Stop: 129.00.
Rises to test the 97.50 region where strong resistance is anticipated.
EUR/JPY has seen a short-term recovery that is now testing the 97.50 region where scope exists for a lower high to form, in line with our strategy below.
Further weakness is anticipated to test the 94.00 zone, close to the location of support in a multi-month falling wedge pattern. Ultimately we seek a break under this support, ahead of a potential recovery higher.
Back over 98.33 (28 June low) will neutralise our current bearish stance, in favour of a recovery higher.
Sell limit 3 at 97.50, Objs: 96.50/94.00/89.00, Stop: 98.50.
Lower high sought for a fresh swing to the downside.
EUR/GBP is bouncing from oversold conditions.
We continue to believe that there is scope for a return to the old trading range between 0.6500 and 0.7000 over coming weeks and months.
In an effort to gain good trade location we seek a reasonable pullback before attempting shorts. We have however lowered our sell strategy in light of recent price action.
Sell limit 3 at 0.7950, Objs: 0.7870/0.7700/0.7500, Stop: 0.8030.
SNB maintains floor for the time being.
EUR/CHF remains within a tight range making it untradeable from a non-scalping perspective.
We remain of the view that if EUR/USD can gather some downside momentum then it may be a step too far for the SNB to hold back the whole FX market.
In the meantime we remain neutral.
Stand aside for now.
Recent range maintained for now.
Gold has been in a lengthy sideways movement for the large part of two months.
Although we are neutral until a breakout can be achieved, we see the 1520-25 region as being key to any further gains. A break under this region is likely to have significant implications, with substantially lower prices anticipated on a push lower.
29.9007 remains the key that bulls need to break over.
Silver has also been largely range-bound.
We would be willing to participate from the long side if a break over 29.9007 could be achieved over coming days and weeks. However, in the meantime, we remain wary of a fast break under the 26.1600 level which would then target the 20.0000 region, where strong support would be anticipated.
As with gold we prefer to remain on the side lines for now.
Await fresh signal.