Short-term structure off 0.9579, 01 June low, remains positive, as the pair retraces over 50% of 1.0855/0.9579, Feb/Jun descend. Fresh leg higher off 0.9968 higher platform that surged through the parity level, also broke above 200 day MA at 1.0256, to post fresh four-month high at 1.3018. Positive on a daily chart, see potential for further gains, however, overextended conditions on 4H chart do not rule out stronger corrective action, before bulls resume. Holding above 200 day MA is required to confirm. Immediate support lies at 1.0230, while only loss of the parity and higher platform at 0.9968 and 50% retracement at 0.9950, would delay bulls.
Res : 1.0300, 1.0318, 1.0354, 1.0400
Sup : 1.0230, 1.0200, 1.0180, 1.0125
The near-term studies are in a neutral mode in past two days, as the pair moves sideways, in a very narrow range, following sharp fall from 1.0361, 28 June lower top and finding ground at strong support at 1.0120, 200 day MA / 50% retracement of 0.9798/1.0444, Apr/June upleg / daily Ichimoku cloud top. Larger picture’s outlook, however, does not see much potential for recovery, as 4H chart studies remain well below their midlines and upside seen capped at 1.0160/1.0200, 20 June / 02 July previous lows and descending 55 day EMA, with daily indicators breaking into negative territory. Firm break below 1.0120/00 to open way for further retracement and expose 1.0050, Fib 61.8% and previous Feb / Apr range top, ahead of psychological parity level.
Res: 1.0140, 1.0180, 1.0200, 1.0250
Sup: 1.0120, 1.0100, 1.0050, 1.0000