The yellow metal posted fresh low at 1703, just above our target at 1700, on a fresh extension of near-term downtrend off 1795, annual high. Subsequent consolidation remains capped by initial resistance and previous support at 1713, however, overextended conditions on 4h chart do not rule out stronger corrective action, with strong barrier and breakpoint at 1728, 15 Oct low / 23 Oct high / main bear trendline, expected to cap for now. Prevailing negative tone sees the downside favored, as break below psychological 1700 and 50% of 1590/1795, to trigger fresh leg lower and expose 1665 zone, Fib 61.8% / 200 day MA.
Res: 1714, 1725, 1729, 1740
Sup: 1703, 1700, 1693, 1668
Bears remain in play on a larger picture, as daily indicators slid into negative territory. Corrective bounce off yesterday’s fresh low at 31.53 struggles at initial 32.00 barrier, as hourly studies are turning lower, but hourly MACD bullish divergence and overextended conditions on 4h chart, do not rule out further corrective action. Potential break above 32.00, to face 32.20, Fib 38.2% of 33.27/31.53 downleg, ahead of more significant yesterday’s lower top and 50% retracement at 32.45 that is expected to cap any stronger rally. Extension of the downtrend sees initial support at 31.43, 50% of 27.50/35.36, ahead of 200 day MA at 31.00 zone.
Res: 32.02, 32.20, 32.45, 32.61
Sup: 31.76, 31.67, 31.53, 31.43
CRUDE OIL (Dec)
Bears took full control, as the price broke below near-term congestion low at 87.69, with fresh weakness extending to 85.67 so far. Corrective bounce is facing strong barrier at 87.69, previous support, where gains are likely going to be capped. Fresh extension of the third wave of downmove from 100.72 that started at 83.50 sees projected extension towards 80.50, equivalent of the first wave of 100.72/87.69, with interim supports at 84.00/83.60, beginning of July higher platform and 82.80, Fib 76.4% of 77.27/100.72 rally.
Res: 87.45, 87.69, 88.20, 88.56
Sup: 86.25, 85.67, 85.00, 84.61