Daily Market Commentary


EUR/USD Strengthens Towards September Highs



The Euro’s relative strength is paying dividends today as investors exit the Dollar following a surprise 25 basis point rate hike from the RBA. We recognize broad-based weakness in the Dollar as a result, particularly against the Aussie and Kiwi. Additionally, gold has rocketed to new all-time highs, a negative catalyst for the Dollar. The RBA is the first central bank to raise rates following the massive flood of liquidity to abate the credit crisis. Therefore, we’re witnessing the first reaction to the launch of global exit-strategies. What we see so far certainly doesn’t bode well for the Dollar’s longer-term future. The RBA’s monetary decision is heightening speculation concerning the ECB and BoE meetings on Thursday. Last week Trichet made his first somewhat Dovish comments in quite some time by defending the interest of a stronger Dollar. However, the ECB has been comparatively hawkish throughout the downturn. Hence, there’s little reason to believe the central bank will act in a Dovish manner on Thursday, particularly after the RBA raised rates in confirmation that the global economy is functioning in an acceptable manner.

Despite the breakout in the AUD/USD and gold, the EUR/USD still faces multiple downtrend lines and September highs. The EU released only light econ data last week. Furthermore, the EU’s previous wave of PMI data came in negatively mixed. Therefore, the EU economy is clearly facing headwinds in contrast to the RBA’s enthusiasm. Hence, the EUR/USD may continue to lag behind the AUD/USD until the EU’s data sends an ‘all-clear’, giving more room to the downside in the EUR/AUD. Meanwhile, all eyes will be on U.S. equities and the 3rd quarter earnings season which kicks off tomorrow with Alcoa. Better than expected results particularly on the revenue side as a opposed to cost-cutting would be a positive catalyst for the EUR/USD since the currency pair still shares a positive correlation with the S&P futures. Therefore, investors should keep an eye on the S&P’s interaction with present resistances and September highs.

Technically speaking, the EUR/USD’s recent movements have made a stronger argument for the near and medium-term uptrends. While the near-term key will be topping our three tight downtrend lines and previous September highs, the medium-term key is the psychological 1.50 level. If the EUR/USD can break past these aforementioned technical barriers near-term gains could really accelerate. As for the downside, the EUR/USD has a few more cushions to fall back on, including multiple uptrend lines along with 9/25 and October lows. That being said, the EUR/USD now has fewer technical obstacles to the topside than the downside. Additionally, breakouts in gold and the AUD/USD bode well for the EUR/USD over the near-term. Investors should keep a close eye on the EUR/USD’s interaction with its topside technical barriers, particularly as the ECB’s monetary policy decision approaches.

Present Price: 1.4745
Resistances: 1.4747, 1.4768, 1.44784, 1.4800, 1.4818, 1.4840
Supports: 1.4721, 1.4702, 1.4677, 1.4656, 1.4637, 1.4609
Psychological: 1.50, September Highs

EUR/USD



GBP/USD Consolidates Around our 2nd Tier Uptrend Line



The Cable is consolidating along our important 2nd tier uptrend line as the currency pair battles with the psychological 1.60 level. Meanwhile, the GBP/USD has managed to set higher lows, (10/6, 10/2, 9/28), a positive technical development for the uptrend. However, the Cable is still trading at a comparative disadvantage after today’s Manufacturing Production data came in far below analyst expectations. Furthermore, the Pound continues to be psychologically depressed by BoE Governor King’s dovish monetary stance. On the other hand, Britain’s Services PMI data came in above analyst expectations on Thursday. Since Britain’s GDP is highly reliant on services this encouraging PMI release is helping buoy the GBP/USD. All eyes are now on the BoE and ECB meetings on Thursday. It will be very interesting to see how the BoE stands right now in regards to present weakness in the Pound considering the RBA just raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points. Despite the RBA’s action the BoE remains one of the loosest central banks around, and we don’t expect this status to change. However, the BoE could behave in a more neutral fashion considering how far the Pound has fallen. Investors will be paying particularly close attention to King’s quotes throughout the week since they have had a large psychological impact on the Pound in the past.

Regardless of today’s breakout in the AUD/USD and gold the GBP/USD remains in a comparatively negative position. Currency pair correlations have been deviating lately, and this pattern may persist since central banks are embarking on their own respective exit strategies, or lack thereof. That being said, the GBP/USD’s downtrend is still in control so long as the BoE remains dovish and British econ data comes in negatively mixed. There is little reason to believe Governor King has swayed from his belief that the Pound should be weaker to help support global demand for Britain’s service and manufacturing industries. However, the breakout in gold to all-time highs is certainly interesting, and will remain on our radar since the Dollar has had a negative correlation with gold throughout the economic downturn. In addition to the central bank meetings on Thursday 3rd quarter earnings season will kick off tomorrow with Alcoa. Better than expected 3rd quarter results combined with a positive reaction from U.S. equities could help the GBP/USD shrug off its downtrend and creep higher. On the other hand, disappointing 3rd quarter earnings would put considerable downward pressure on the Cable. Overall, the breakout in gold and broad-based weakness of the Dollar helps the Cable’s near-term performance despite the currency pair’s negative technicals.

Technically speaking, the GBP/USD faces multiple downtrend lines along with the psychological 1.60 level and 9/30 highs. A breakout past 1.60 and our 4th tier downtrend line could result in accelerated immediate-term gains. As for the downside, the GBP/USD has cushions in 10/2 and 9/28 lows along with our 1st tier uptrend line. Neglect of our 2nd tier uptrend line and a subsequent failure of these lows and our 1st tier uptrend line would heighten near-term losses.


Present Price: 1.5930
Resistances: 1.5964, 1.5992, 1.6024, 1.6045, 1.6072, 1.6095
Supports: 1.5921, 1.5900, 1.5875, 1.5840, 1.5823, 1.5802
Psychological: 1.60

GBP/USD



USD/JPY Sinks Towards September Lows



The USD/JPY is participating in today’s broad-based weakness of the Dollar following the RBA’s decision to raise its benchmark rate by 25 basis points. Though an incremental increase, the RBA’s policy delivered a monetary shock and investors are beginning to trade with more of an exit-strategy mentality. The exit from global liquidity measures doesn’t appear to bode well for the Dollar’s longer-term outlook considering the reaction we’ve seen across FX markets today and gold’s sprint to new all-time highs. The lack of Japanese economic indicators combined with the uncertainty surrounding Minister Fujii’s monetary stance has allowed the USD/JPY to take a hit today. The USD/JPY is re-approaching critical levels including September and January lows. A failure of support from these lows would likely accelerate the USD/JPY’s immediate-term downward momentum. However, should such an even materialize we would expect Fujii to defend the currency by selling a large lot of Yen.

Speculation aside, we have little reason to alter our negative outlook on the USD/JPY. It seems the USD/JPY is bound to suffer whether broad-based Dollar weakness continues or the S&P futures pull back again. Countering forces would be very negative Japanese economic data combined with predominantly positive U.S. econ numbers. Also, Minister Fujii can influence the currency pair through either psychological techniques are concrete action. Otherwise, the USD/JPY’s downtrend remains in the driver’s seat.

Technically speaking, September and January lows serve as important cushions along with our 1st tier uptrend line. As for the topside, the USD/JPY faces multiple downtrend lines along with the highly psychological 90 level. The USD/JPY clearly has far more technical obstacles to the topside than the downside over the near-term, allowing for a higher probability of more downward movements.

Present Price: 88.73
Resistances: 89.12, 89.67, 89.94, 90.14, 90.45, 90.74
Supports: 88.60, 88.25, 87.97, 87.63, 87.12, 86.80
Psychological: 90, 2009 and 2008 lows

USD/JPY



Gold Sprints to New All-Time Highs



Gold has bolted to new all-time highs after the RBA unexpectedly raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points. The RBA’s decision has resulted in a broad-based depreciation of the Dollar, particularly against the Aussie and Kiwi. The concept of the RBA beginning its exit-strategy has sent a shock throughout the FX market, allowing gold to break free of its month long consolidation. Gold blew past all of our downtrend lines, the psychological $1000/oz level and previous all-time highs. This is clearly a bullish movement for gold in regards to the precious metal’s longer-term outlook. Despite the broad-based depreciation of the Dollar coupled with a breakout in gold the EUR/USD and GBP/USD aren’t participating fully. Investors are waiting for the ECB and BoE meetings on Thursday. Since gold has been closely correlated with the EUR/USD, the currency pair’s reluctance of to break out of its own September highs could temper further gains in gold over the near-term. However, full participation by the EUR/USD would only accelerate gold’s present upward momentum. Gold’s current movements are so decisive that it’s irresponsible to place any resistances and supports on gold’s chart until the precious metal calms and forms a new base. However, the psychological 1050 level could carry some weight should it be tested. Meanwhile, investors should keep a close eye on the broad-based performance of the Dollar since it is more responsible for gold’s movements than U.S. equities.

Present Price: $1039.20/oz
Resistances: $1050/oz
Supports:
Psychological: $1050/oz

Gold



The S&P Futures Trade Higher with Weaker Dollar



The S&P futures are trading higher by nearly 1% as the Dollar experiences a broad-based depreciation along with gold setting record highs. The RBA delivered a monetary shock throughout the FX markets after the central bank raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points. Investors reacted positively to the RBA’s decision by sending the S&P futures to their psychological 1050 level. The RBA’s action represents the beginning of the global exit-strategy, and we are witnessing the impact this could have on the Dollar over the longer-term. Thus far the concept of an exit from global stimulus doesn’t bode too well for the Greenback. However, since the S&P has been negatively correlated to the Dollar it remains to be seen whether this trend would in the Greenback would be positive or negative for equities over the long-run. We also received a rush of speculation today that China, Russia, France, and major OPEC countries are discussing de-pegging the Dollar from oil. The Saudis denied these claims vehemently and we won’t dig any further at this time since it lacks legitimate backing at this point.

While it’s easy to focus on psychological shocks today, we’re going to keep our attention on present fundamentals. While yesterday’s positive ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI number was encouraging, we can’t forget the wave of negative data from last week. Unemployment remains a sore thumb in the economic recovery and manufacturing seems to have slowed down everywhere around the globe except China. Furthermore, U.S. consumer confidence is tailing off and this is a concern unless demand in emerging countries can pick up the slack. Therefore, despite the RBA’s support of the economic recovery today we are still wondering whether the global economic recovery is stalling. There is little doubt international commerce is cooling off right now, it’s just a matter whether we’ve hit a speed bump or are headed for a more protracted pullback. The 3rd quarter earnings season is rolling around and positive results could overshadow the pullback in global economic indicators. On the other hand, mixed results and cautious outlooks would likely send the S&P futures tumbling lower. We expect 3rd quarter earnings should prove to be positive due to the impact of global stimulus packages. However, the real question is outlook for 4th quarter performances since stimulus packages are starting to wind down.

In addition to the beginning of the earnings season we will also receive monetary policy decisions from both the ECB and BoE on Thursday. The RBA’s rate hike makes Thursday’s decisions more interesting in regards to the monetary stance of both the ECB and BoE. Hawkish monetary policy would likely drive the S&P futures higher, and vice versa. However, we expect both the BoE and ECB to issue more neutral monetary policies on Thursday since they have recently expressed their interest a stronger Dollar. Such a move could dampen the positivity injected by the RBA. Overall, the underperformance of global economic data should continue to strain potential gains in the S&P futures until positive data confirms the optimism of central bankers.

Technically speaking, the S&P futures have popped back above our 1st tier downtrend line while avoiding a retest of the highly psychological 1000 level. However, the futures remain well below our important 2nd tier uptrend line and are presently struggling with the psychological 1050 level. Therefore, we aren’t entirely optimistic concerning the recently rally in U.S. equities. The S&P futures will need to at least tackle our 1st tier uptrend line and September highs in order for us to be more committed to the longevity of the uptrend. Furthermore, the psychological 1100 level isn’t too far above, meaning that the S&P’s near-term movements are limited by psychological levels on both the topside and the downside. As for the downside, the S&P futures have 9/28 and 10/2 lows serving as technical cushions along with the highly psychological 1000 level.

Price: 1050.75
Resistances: 1057.5, 1061.25, 1065.5, 1070.5, 1075
Supports: 1045.75, 1041, 1036.25, 1031.25, 1025.5
Psychological: 1000, 1050, 1075, 1100









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