Daily Market Commentary


EUR/USD Pulls Back in the Wake of Weak PMI Data



The EUR/USD is pulling back from intraday highs after EU PMI data disappointed for the most part. While France’s PMI data outperformed, Germany’s came in surprisingly mixed, resulting in subpar headline EU PMI numbers. The disappointing PMI results are creating a relative weakness in the Euro, dragging down on what was clearly an overbought EUR/GBP. Although the PMI numbers were negatively mixed, all of the data points still registered an improvement from their previous releases. Regardless, the failure to broadly surpass expectations is taking a bit of momentum out of the EUR/USD’s sails. Investors will now look for strong German Ifo Business Climate data tomorrow to help counterbalance today’s disappointment. In all, the EU’s economic fundamentals continue to indicate a solid recovery. However, investors are becoming uncertain in terms of how long the impressive recovery will last until we witness a noticeable dip in data. Additionally, will the future dip in data yield a near-term setback, or a larger pullback resulting in a double dip recession? While these longer-term considerations, they warrant discussion nonetheless. As for the near-term, the EUR/USD’s uptrend remains intact as the S&P futures trade well above their own significant technical supports. Strong EU and U.S. data throughout the remainder the week coupled with a productive G20 meeting could help lead the charge forward. Meanwhile, investors should keep an eye on the downturn in the Shanghai Composite and Baltic Dry Indexes. Any further technical deterioration in these indexes could spark a pullback in global equities and drag the EUR/USD lower. For a more detailed analysis, view our S&P futures commentary.

Technically speaking, the EUR/USD has one more tough area of resistance before taking another large leg up. 8/21/08 highs and the 8/12/08-8/13/08 consolidation represent a zone of strong technical resistance, especially since they revolve around the highly psychological 1.50 level. That being said, the EUR/USD may have limited room to the topside for the immediate-term. However, an eclipse of these levels on a boost in volume could ignite another impressive rally in the currency pair. As for the downside, the EUR/USD has multiple uptrend lines serving as technical cushions along with weekly lows and the psychological 1.45 level. Therefore, the EUR/USD has several lines of defense to the downside. We maintain our near-term uptrend on the EUR/USD until further notice. However, the medium-term is becoming much more uncertain.

Present Price: 1.4756
Resistances: 1.4780, 1.4798, 1.4822, 1.4841, 1.4864, 1.4895
Supports: 1.4745, 1.4724, 1.4703, 1.4678, 1.4656, 1.4634
Psychological: 1.45, 1.50

EUR/USD



GBP/USD Logs Solid Gains Following BoE Meeting



The Cable experienced a solid rally today after the BoE uniformly kept its QE package unchanged. Furthermore, the BoE didn’t act on the idea of lowering the deposit rate. Hence, the central bank feels comfortable with its present level of liquidity. However, the BoE’s wording certainly left the door open for further liquidity measures down the road. The Pound reacted positively to the neutral behavior of the BoE, registering large gains against both the Dollar and the Euro. Today’s development should help stem the bleeding caused by Governor King’s exceptionally dovish attitude. However, BBA Mortgage Approvals printed below expectations today, putting a damper on the positive outcome of the BoE meeting. The recovery in Britain’s housing market has been the most impressive part of the nation’s economic recovery. We saw the recovery in the Claimant Count Change level off last week as well. Therefore, today’s strength in the Pound may not be long lasting if the recovery in British economic data slows down. Such a development would give BoE Governor King ample reason to move forward with additional liquidity measures. Furthermore, despite today’s decision by the BoE, we believe it is the central bank’s intention to keep the Pound comparatively weak in order to buoy its struggling services sector. Hence, we maintain our negative outlook on the GBP/USD trend wise over the near to medium-term.

As for the time being, the Cable received much needed support above previous September lows. Britain doesn’t have any more economic data on tap for the rest of the week, leaving the GBP/USD’s performance in the hands of the G20 meeting and U.S. economic data. If the G20 summit goes smoothly and U.S. economic data outperforms like last week, the GBP/USD may experience further strength to the topside. However, the currency pair must face multiple downtrend lines along with 9/17, 9/15, and 9/11 highs. Therefore, the GBP/USD has quite a few technical obstacles to overcome before having the opportunity to log more substantial gains. As for the downside, the GBP/USD also has multiple uptrend lines serving as technical cushions. September lows continue to play an important role along with July lows and the highly psychological 1.60 level. Hence, the GBP/USD has several strong supports and resistances to deal with before breaking out of its present trading band. Regardless, we maintain our negative outlook trend-wise regardless of immediate term strength as long as our topside barriers are in place.

Present Price: 1.6409
Resistances: 1.6417, 1.6434, 1.6456, 1.6469, 1.6485, 1.6505
Supports: 1.6395, 1.6380, 1.6354, 1.6326, 1.6303
Psychological: 1.60, 1.65

GBP/USD



USD/JPY Avoids a Retest of September Lows



The USD/JPY pulled back yesterday as Dollar weakened across the board and U.S. equities rallied once again. However, the USD/JPY has bottomed above September lows and is strengthening as the EUR/USD and gold move lower. Hence, USD/JPY’s movements are clearly tied the currency pair’s correlations. We expect this pattern to continue today until Japan releases its Trade Balance data late Wednesday EST. We believe Japan’s Trade Balance will come in stronger than expected since China’s TEU data continues to grow with the country’s economy performing well. Additionally, recent data from the U.S. has been stronger than expected; indicating demand for Japanese exports likely improved since the last time we received Trade Balance data. An outperformance of Japan’s Trade Balance data would likely place further downward pressure on the USD/JPY, corresponding with our expectations continues strength in U.S. equities over the near-term.

However, as we explained in our S&P futures commentary, the Shanghai Composite Index (SCI) and Baltic Dry Index (BDI) are performing poorly. While China’s demand for commodities doesn’t necessary impact its hunger for Japanese exports, any fundamental slowdown in China could seriously damage Japan’s present economic stabilization. Strong growth in China has helped Japan’s economy a lot considering American consumption continues to decline. While we don’t expect present setbacks in China to impact Japan’s Trade Balance release today, investors should keep a close eye on the performance of the SCI and BDI over the near-term.

In all, we maintain our negative outlook trend-wise on the USD/JPY. The currency pair should continue to perform poorly as long as the global economy improves. Since we have little reason to be bearish on the S&P futures over the near-term, it seems the USD/JPY’s downward trajectory is intact. Furthermore, the DPJ has voiced a more conservative fiscal policy which would likely favor a stronger Yen. Lastly, medium-term momentum is clearly in favor of the downtrend considering all of the technical supports and uptrend lines the USD/JPY has dropped through over the past month and a half. Technically speaking, the USD/JPY faces several barriers to the topside, including all five of our present downtrend lines along with 9/21 highs. Therefore, even though the USD/JPY may strengthen further over the immediate-term, the currency pair has a long road ahead to the north. As for the downside, we spot technical cushions in the form of our 1st and 2nd tier uptrend lines along with 9/21 lows, 9/16 lows, and of course the highly psychological 90 level. Therefore, the USD/JPY’s topside appears to have more room than the currency pair’s downside, favoring a positive performance for the time being.

Present Price: 91.50
Resistances: 91.62, 91.80, 91.91, 92.18, 92.39
Supports: 91.42, 91.22, 91.09, 90.88, 90.69, 90.44
Psychological: 90


USD/JPY


Gold Weakens with a Stronger Dollar



Gold failed to breach September highs yesterday, and the precious metal is declining as investors snap up the Dollar. Investors are presently making a slight retreat from risk as they await the Fed’s monetary policy decision later today. While we expect the Fed to keep its policy unchanged, the potential for a monetary shock always exists. Meanwhile, the EU’s PMI data came in negatively mixed today, catching investors a bit off-guard. The disappointing data has resulted in a comparatively weak Euro. Underperformance in the Euro is dragging gold lower since the precious metal has recently experienced a stronger positive correlation with the EUR/USD than the GBP/USD. The S&P futures are hovering around even, and gold will likely remain within a reasonable trading range until the Fed announces its decision. We maintain our positive outlook on gold trend-wise since we are optimistic about the precious metal’s correlations over the near-term. Additionally, gold has given us little reason to question the uptrend’s technical strength.

Technically speaking, gold’s psychological $1000/oz area should continue to serve as a strong support. Gold’s continual defense of $1000/oz is a positive sign for the uptrend since the precious metal is building a solid technical base. Gold has multiple uptrend lines along with 9/21, 9/15, and 9/10 lows serving as technical cushions. As for the topside, gold is staring down previous 2009 highs and our relatively flat 3rd tier downtrend line. Beyond these technical barriers, gold faces the final frontier in March 2008 highs. These technical levels are the only foreseeable obstacles separating gold from more exciting near-term gains. However, gold will need a strong push to the topside backed by healthy volume. Therefore, the precious metal will require participation from its correlations across the board.


Present Price: $1011.55/oz
Resistances: $1014.88/oz, $1016.56/oz, $1018.24/oz, $1019.79/oz, $1020.86/oz, $1024.48/oz
Supports: $1011.51/oz, $1010.39/oz, $1008.52/oz, $1007.21/oz, $1005.72/oz
Psychological: $1000/oz, 2009 highs and March 2008 highs

Gold



The S&P Futures Consolidate Ahead of Fed Policy Decision



The S&P futures balanced on our 2nd tier uptrend line perfectly yesterday, heading north until deciding to consolidate at previous 2009 highs. The S&P futures continue to strengthen despite today’s surprisingly weak EU PMI data. The PMI data caught us a bit off-guard, and the Euro is paying dues as a result. However, the BoE showed a consensus to keep its QE package at 175 billion. The uniform action by the BoE is helping calm some of the uncertainty floating around regarding the health of Britain’s economy. All eyes are now on the Fed and G20 Summit as psychological factors take center stage. As we stated in our previous analysis, ‘we anticipate the Fed will keep its monetary policy unchanged while providing a rosier outlook on the economy. However, we don’t expect the Fed to make any commitments to the tightening of liquidity since we believe this would be premature.’ As for the G20, we expect the group of nations to remain committed to their unified support of the global economy, for any diversion by major economies could damage the foundation of the recovery taking place. The S&P futures should remain on their near-term upward trajectory if the remainder of the week unfolds as expected. Meanwhile, investors should keep an eye on present weakness in the EUR/USD and gold along with strength in the USD/JPY. If these trends continue, this would likely be a signal of a pullback in U.S. equities. The U.S. will release some important economic data as the week progresses, including Existing Home Sales on Thursday, and New Home Sales along with Durable Goods Orders on Friday. These data points should not be overlooked, and the results could exacerbate or counter the impact of the G20 on global markets.
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Speaking of global markets, the Shanghai Composite Index (SCI) has been under considerable weakness lately. The SCI is roughly 18% off of 2009 highs, and it seems the composite could have more room to go to the downside. Investors should recall that the collapse of the SCI preceded the beginning of the downturn in U.S. equities last year. Therefore, could the SCI’s present peak signal medium-term weakness in the S&P futures? After all, the global markets have been thriving off of China’s success story in the heat of the economic crisis. While it remains to be seen whether the SCI’s present downturn exacerbates, investors should monitor the situation closely. The SCI’s current weakness stems not only from a tightening of bank lending, but also from a large decline in iron-ore and coal imports for the second consecutive month. Meanwhile, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) hit a 4-month low today. Iron-ore and coal shipping account for nearly 50% of the BDI. In other words, China seems to have more than enough steel for its present infrastructure projects. Therefore, China’s present stimulus package may be running low on funds. China was one of the first countries to issue an aggressive economic stimulus package, and clearly the fastest to put it to work. Hence, can it be that China will mark the beginning of the end of the rally supported by global economic stimulus measures? We are asking a lot of questions because this is merely speculation right now, but we believe it’s a valid discussion and near-term behavior of both the SCI and BDI should be monitored.

Getting back on the ball, the S&P futures continue to trade in a strong technical position. We spot three uptrend lines serving as technical cushions. Our 1st tier uptrend line carries the most weight since it connects through September lows and the highly psychological 1000 level. Therefore, a retracement beneath our 1st tier could indicate a sharper pullback on the horizon. Meanwhile, the S&P futures can rely upon the psychological 1050 level and Monday lows to play a technical role in the near-term. As for the topside, 2009 highs, our 3rd tier uptrend line, and the psychological 1075 and 1100 levels are the only barriers we can find at the moment.

Price: 1067
Resistances: 1071.25
Supports: 1064.75, 1059.75, 1055.25, 1051.25, 1047.24, 1038.5
Psychological: 1050, 1075, 1100, 1000










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