EUR/USD Trades off Weekly Highs Amid Profit-Taking
The EUR/USD’s medium-term uptrend flexed its muscles yesterday, driving past 1.47 on solid buy-side activity. The EUR/USD benefitted greatly from a return to risk following better than expected U.S. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization. As we explained in our previous analysis, the EUR/USD had few technical barriers to the topside, allowing for accelerated gains in the currency pair. However, the bulls ran out of gas and the EUR/USD has topped out this morning, dipping back beneath December 2008 highs. Weakness comes despite an absence of EU econ data and slightly stronger than expected U.S. Weekly Unemployment Claims. Hence, we view today’s pullback as a symptom of overbought conditions. The EUR/USD’s uptrend is alive and well due to a combination of outperforming global econ data and the ECB’s hawkish stance towards monetary policy. The EU will cap the busy data week early Friday morning with German PPI and EU Current Account numbers. Analysts are looking for Germany’s PPI to turn positive for the first time since October 2008 as well as a narrowing Current Account deficit. Rising prices and a recovery in the Current Account would help support the ECB’s decision to refrain from injecting more liquidity in the monetary system, a positive catalyst for the EUR/USD.
Meanwhile, the EUR/USD could experience noticeable near-term resistance due to the historical consolidation between December 2008 and September 2008 highs. The currency pair will likely opt to build a new base unless we receive impressive economic news in the immediate-term. Considering Friday and Monday will be light on the data front, the next few trading sessions provide a great opportunity for investors to lock-in some profits ahead of the important EU PMI data releases next Tuesday. We’ve readjusted our trend lines and still can’t form a downtrend line of substance. Hence, the EUR/USD still has quite a bit of upward mobility despite historical consolidation in this area along with the highly psychological 1.50 level. An eclipse of September 2008 highs would serve as yet another signal that the global economy is on the path to recovery. As for the downside, the EUR/USD has multiple uptrend lines as Wednesday lows to fall back on. The currency pair is separating itself from the psychological 1.45 level, another positive indicate for the EUR/USD trend-wise.
Present Price: 1.4719
Resistances: 1.4741, 1.4772, 1.4800, 1.4822, 1.4841
Supports: 1.4703, 1.4678, 1.4656, 1.4631, 1.4608
Psychological: 1.45, 1.50

GBP/USD Holds Strong at 1.65
The GBP/USD has managed to fight off the dovish statements from the BoE’s King, stabilizing around the psychological 1.65 level as global equity markets rally. Yesterday we saw large rallies in the EUR/USD, gold, and U.S. equity markets. The Cable’s positive correlations pulled the currency pair out of its intense pullback. However, there remains a negative drag on the Cable which likely won’t reverse any time soon considering Britain will be very quiet next week on the economic data front. On the other hand, Britain’s pricing and CCC data came in just ahead of expectations this week, helping counteract Governor King’s latest monetary shock. As investors know, King stated the BoE is considering lowering the deposit rate paid on the bank reserves, thereby encouraging lending and increasing liquidity in the monetary system. King’s latest dovish statement follows the BoE’s decision to surprise investors by injecting more funds into its QE package at the last monetary policy meeting. The BoE’s relentless favoritism of liquidity worries investors that Britain’s economy may not be on as solid of footing as we are led to believe by the performance of econ data and equities. King’s dovish attitude is having its intended consequences, holding down the Pound as the Dollar depreciates heavily across the board and gold climbs towards 2008 highs. Therefore, even if current trends continue, the GBP/USD may only participate half-heartedly since the currency pair has downward inclinations. We would not be surprised to see the GBP/USD experience further downward pressure over the near-term once investors take profits from risk-oriented investments.
Meanwhile, the Cable is back above 1.65, a comforting development for bulls. However, the GBP/USD faces all three of our downtrend lines along with 9/15 and 9/11 highs. Our 3rd tier downtrend line serves as a key barometer for a meaningful near-term uptrend in the GBP/USD since the line connects through August highs. Our 1st tier downtrend and 3rd tier uptrend lines are reaching an inflection point right now, indicating the possibility of heightened volatility in the currency pair over the next 24 hours. A pop to the topside would likely run to our 2nd tier downtrend line whereas a pullback would find support in our 2nd tier uptrend line. The GBP/USD should take its cue from the broad-based performance of the Dollar and U.S. equities since Britain’s data news wire will be silent next week. We maintain our negative outlook on the GBP/USD trend-wise and the Pound should continue to underperform for the time being.
Present Price: 1.6511
Resistances: 11.6524, 1.6551, 1.6570, 1.6595, 1.6622
Supports: 1.6495, 1.6475, 1.6455, 1.6431, 1.6402, 1.6382
Psychological: 1.65

USD/JPY Consolidates Above 90
The USD/JPY has received considerable support at the highly psychological 90 level over the past 24 hours. Strength in the USD/JPY comes despite broad-based weakness in the Dollar and new 2009 highs in gold. The USD/JPY’s resilience is a result of two factors. The first being the BoJ’s cautionary tone despite a little better overall outlook for Japan’s economy. Japan’s economy clearly remains in tough spot since manufacturers and exporters are facing a strong Yen globally. It’s likely the BoJ will refrain from tightening liquidity any time soon due to the unstable state of the nation’s economy. The psychological impact of loose monetary policy combined with this week’s strong U.S. economic data is helping the USD/JPY find strong support at 90. The second, and more prevalent, reason for the USD/JPY’s positive performance despite global weakness in the Dollar is the psychological weight carried by 90. The defense of 90 is to be expected, and the USD/JPY has strong historical support between 88 and 90. Hence, the USD/JPY has limited space to move to the downside over the immediate-term.
However, regardless of present support, the USD/JPY’s medium-term downtrend is still in the driver’s seat. While the currency pair may experience a little more immediate-term movement to the topside, the USD/JPY remains in a downward trajectory. The DPJ’s victory only adds strength to the USD/JPY’s downward momentum since the new administration favors a stronger Yen and less reliance on exports. Additionally, breakouts in the EUR/USD, gold, and U.S. equities could continue this Autumn. If so, we would only witness more selling interest in the Dollar.
Meanwhile, we’ve readjusted our trend lines to compensate for the USD/JPY’s recent downturn. The currency pair faces four solid downtrend lines to the topside along with 9/9 and 9/7 highs. As for the downside, the USD/JPY has our 1st and 2nd tier uptrend lines along with Wednesday lows and the highly psychological 90 level serving as cushions. Though we have a slightly optimistic outlook on the USD/JPY for the immediate-term, we maintain a negative outlook on the currency pair over the near and medium-term.
Present Price: 91.25
Supports: 91.18, 90.96, 90.78, 90.57, 90.26
Resistances: 91.43, 91.65, 91.84, 92.04, 92.24
Psychological: 90

Gold Stares Down March 2008 Highs
Gold shined again yesterday, separating from $1000/oz and February 2009 highs on its way towards March 2008 highs. Investors snatched up the previous metal in light of the continual selloff in the Dollar. Gold continues to exercise a positive correlation with U.S. equities, so a breach of 1050 in the S&P futures was more than enough of an incentive for investors to rush gold. We find little reason to favor the Dollar nor frown upon U.S. equities over the near-term, thereby giving gold the opportunity to tackle 2008 highs. However, March 2008 highs could still prove to be a challenging immediate-term obstacle should they be encountered. Furthermore, we recognize considerable immediate-term resistance in the EUR/USD at 1.50 and support in the USD/JPY at 90. Additionally, the GBP/USD is floating around 1.65 as the currency pair battles the BoE’s dovish monetary policy. Considering the extend of the rally in gold and equities as well as the heavy sell-off in the Dollar, consolidative profit-taking around present levels would not be surprising for the time being. Furthermore, news will be relatively quiet on the econ data front until the EU releases its wave of PMI data next Wednesday. Hence, investors may take the next few sessions as an opportune time to lock-in some profits. Regardless, the medium-term uptrend in gold is alive and well, and we expect March 2008 highs to fail over the near-term.
Present Price: $1015.48/oz
Resistances: $1018.06/oz, $1020.86/oz, $1022.17/oz, $1024.04/oz, $1027.33/oz
Supports: $1015.58/oz, $1014.13/oz, $1012.07/oz, $1010.01/oz, $1008.52/oz, $1006.84/oz.
Psychological: March 2008 highs, $1000/oz.

The S&P Futures Take a Breather
The S&P futures are consolidating after a broad-based return to risk sent the futures beyond the psychological 1050 level. Broad-based depreciation of the Dollar coupled with another breakout in gold created a supportive environment for the S&P to continue its ascent with ease. Investors have little to complain about this week since closely-watched data points such as Retail Sales and Industrial Production eclipsed analyst expectations. However, the EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and gold are facing respective resistances and supports along with psychological levels. Since the news wires will be relatively quiet until Wednesday’s wave of EU PMI data, the S&P futures may opt to participate in a market wide consolidation as investors lock-in some profits. Despite the optimism surrounding this week’s economic data, we do notice a couple red flags investors should take note of.
TIC Long-Term Purchases registered a considerable drop and the Current Account deficit widened. The disappointing TIC figure shows foreign nations are losing interest in U.S. Treasuries and equities. Foreign support of America’s extraordinary debt creation has been a topic of concern for quite some time now, and for good reason. The drop in TIC Long-Term Purchases coincides with calls for a new monetary standard and tense trade relations between the U.S. and China. Any future disappointing Treasury auctions could easily deflate investor optimism. Therefore, the TIC number is a bit disconcerting. Additionally, the widening Current Account deficit shows the U.S. is increasing its imports. While this bodes well for consumption and supports a weakening Dollar, it remains to be seen whether the drop in the Current Account is a temporary side-effect of the cash-for-clunkers program.
Concerns aside, the S&P futures are in a good position to test the psychological 1100 level. The highly psychological 1000 level is quietly becoming an afterthought, an important development for the S&P’s near-term outlook. While we anticipate consolidation and profit taking over the immediate-term, the present lack of substantial downtrend pressure in the EUR/USD and gold bodes well for the S&P over the near-term. We can’t discern any strong technical barriers in the S&P besides the psychological 1100 level. As for the downside, the S&P futures have Wednesday lows, our 2nd tier uptrend line, and the psychological 1050 serving as technical cushions.
Price: 1066.75
Resistances: 1068.75, 1071.25, 1076.5
Supports: 1062.25, 1055, 1051.75, 1049
Psychological: 1050, 1100
Crude Consolidates Just Below our Previous 3rd Tier Downtrend Line
Crude futures are hanging just below our previous 3rd tier downtrend line after posting a solid recovery from our 1st tier uptrend line. Crude futures picked themselves up after Friday’s selloff on large volume following broad-based depreciation of the Dollar coupled with the S&P breaking through 1050. Investors returned to risk in the aftermath of better than expected global economic data. The most positive catalyst for crude futures was the impressive showing in Core Retail Sales on Tuesday. Improvement in consumption helps raise the outlook for present and future demand for commodities such as crude. As for the supply side, the U.S. reported another large inventory shortage for the third time in the past four weeks. The dramatic drop in supply combined with a brighter outlook for demand warrants crude trading towards the top of its trading range.
Economic data will be relatively light until Wednesday’s flood of EU PMI data. The EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and gold are all trading around heavy resistances/supports along with strong psychological levels. We are anticipating consolidation mixed with profit taking in crude’s aforementioned correlations for the next few session. Therefore, crude futures may lack the positive catalyst required to send them beyond August highs and the psychological $75/bbl in the immediate-term. Hence, we may witness crude continue to trade within OPEC’s $68-$72/bbl comfort zone until we receive some more econ data. On the other hand, if the S&P futures ascend towards 1100, this would likely help drive crude towards our new 3rd tier downtrend line. A break above our 3rd tier downtrend line would indicate fresh 2009 highs around the corner. As for the downside, crude futures now have a wealth of supports in our 1st and 2nd tier uptrend lines along with the highly psychological $70/bbl level.
Price: $72.51/bbl
Resistances: $73.02/bbl, $73.33/bbl, $73.55/bbl, $74.06/bbl, $74.54/bbl
Supports: $72.28/bbl, $72.01/bbl, $71.62/bbl, $71.27/bbl, $70.94/bbl
Psychological: $70/bbl, $75/bbl

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