EUR/USD Dips Following Positive Wave of U.S. Econ Data
The EUR/USD is heading south along with the GBP/USD and gold while the USD/JPY pops following a much better than expected wave of economic data from the U.S. Strength in the Dollar off of positive U.S. econ data is the opposite reaction of what we’d normally expect. Therefore, we are witnessing an interesting alteration in sentiment as investors favor the Dollar due to comparative strength of the U.S. economy. We will monitor the correlation between the Dollar and the S&P closely over the next 24 hours to see if this reversal follows through. Meanwhile, The Euro is exhibiting relative strength against the Pound after BoE Governor King announced the central bank is leaning towards decreasing the deposit rate it pays banks on reserves, thereby increasing liquidity in the financial system. King’s continual dovish attitude counters that of the ECB’s Trichet, who has incessantly fought off the doves and maintained a relatively hawkish stance during the economic downturn. The ECB’s steadfast behavior is paying dividends for the Euro as we witness a huge breakout in the EUR/GBP. In fact, this appears to be a new leg up in the EUR/GBP, indicating further strength in the EU vs. Britain over the near-term.
The Euro is managing to exercise relative strength despite the fact that Germany’s ZEW Economic Confidence number came in shy of analyst expectations today. However, even though Germany’s number missed, the overall EU ZEW Economic Confidence data eclipsed expectations. Regardless of the mixed results, the ZEW Economic Confidence readings have recovered considerably and are nearing 2006 highs. Today’s data helps confirm that the economic recovery continues to take root in the EU region. The Euro is benefitting from the mixed/positive data in conjunction with the ECB’s minimum bid rate holding steady at 1%. The EU will release CPI data tomorrow and we will watch closely to see whether the rapid decline in consumer prices can finally reach some form of stabilization. Positive CPI data would only help buoy the Euro more since this would allow the ECB to feel comfortable keeping their present liquidity measures in place instead of being pressured to fight off deflation. Meanwhile, it seems like the divergence in attitudes regarding monetary policy at central banks is resulting in more independent performance among the major currency pairs. We believe the divergence in correlations could persist over time since the central banks may take different approaches in regards to the process of unwinding their respective liquidity packages. Hence, investors shouldn’t overreact to the collapse in the GBP/USD today since Trichet and King obviously have their differences.
Technically speaking, the EUR/USD is still riding high off of last Tuesday’s breakout to the topside. The currency pair continues to set higher lows while trading above the psychological 1.45 level. We still place significance on Tuesday’s movement since the EUR/USD leapt to new 2009 highs. There aren’t any concrete, historical downtrend lines we can cross through present ranges. Hence, the medium-term uptrend is clearly intact. However, the 1.45-1.50 should continue to be a sticky range since there is quite of bit of historical trading in this range in late 2008. As a result, the EUR/USD will likely need another jolt to break free of its topside obstacles. The next technical barriers are December 2008 highs along with the highly psychological 1.50 level. As for the downside, the EUR/USD has Monday’s lows along with the psychological 1.45 level.
Present Price: 1.4590
Resistances: 1.4591, 1.4607, 1.4639, 1.4672, 1.4710
Supports: 1.4669, 1.4550, 1.4534, 1.4518, 1.4506
Psychological: 1.45

GBP/USD Reverses Quickly Following Gov King’s Statements
The GBP/USD is dropping like a rock today while the EUR/GBP soars following a dovish statement from BoE Governor King. King said the BoE is leaning towards decreasing the deposit rate it pays banks on reserves they park at the central bank. Such a decision would encourage banks to lend more and increase liquidity in the system. The continual dovish monetary stance of the BoE is punishing the Pound relative to other currencies. It seems the central bank is intent on pumping up liquidity despite this week’s improvement in pricing. Today’s CPI and RPI data beat expectations along with a strong rise in Input PPI last week. However, Governor King is not impressed, and it appears the BoE may even add onto the balance of its QE program at the next policy meeting. The last time King applied a monetary shock we received a stream of negative economic data from Britain, thereby justifying the BoE’s action. Is King preparing us for another set of disappointing economic data? We will find out tomorrow since Britain will print its CCC data.
Meanwhile, gold and the EUR/USD are holding up relatively well despite the large pullback in the Cable. If the BoE continues to take measures devaluing the Pound, then we may begin to witness a more consistent divergence in correlation among the major currency crosses. In fact, King’s intention may be to create an environment conductive of a weaker Pound in order to attract more global demand for Britain’s services and manufactured goods. The central banks are clearly starting to make more individual judgements regarding their monetary policy after the banks acted in unison during the height of the economic downturn. We will monitor the behavior of the GBP/USD and EUR/GBP closely over the next 24-48 hours to see whether the dramatic divergence in performance abates following the psychological monetary shock issued by King. Investors should keep in mind the last monetary shock from the BoE resulted in an incessant leg down. Therefore, the GBP/USD could have more negative territory ahead of it in the near-term. However, the BoE didn’t actually enact any policy, only implied the possibility of an event occurring. Therefore, the pullback might not be as dramatic as when the BoE surprisingly added onto its QE package.
Technically speaking, the pullback taking place in the Cable today is large and abrupt. The sharp reversal in the GBP/USD is accompanied by a shot of sell-side volume. Therefore, there is obviously weight behind today’s movement. The currency pair has dropped beneath the psychological 1.65 level and 9/9 lows, both negative technical developments. The next question will be whether the GBP/USD can hold onto the bottom of the 8/19-8/24 trading range along with our 2nd tier uptrend line. Ultimately, our new 1st tier uptrend line serves as the most important gauge in regards to the currency pair’s near-term uptrend since it connects through September lows. However, our 1st tier uptrend line is still sitting far off in the distance. As for the topside, the GBP/USD must now deal with all three of our downtrend lines along with the psychological 1.65 level. A positive development today would be for the Cable to close above 1.65 and our 2nd tier uptrend line. We are negative on the GBP/USD for the immediate-term due to the developments today regarding Britain’s monetary policy.
Present Price: 1.6475
Resistances: 1.6495, 1.6524, 1.6551, 1.6570, 1.6595, 1.6622
Supports: 1.6455, 1.6431, 1.6402, 1.6388, 1.6366
Psychological: 1.65

USD/JPY Struggles with our 1st Tier Downtrend Line
The USD/JPY’s mini-rally is cooling after interacting with our 1st tier downtrend line. The USD/JPY experienced further strength initially this morning after investors snapped up the Dollar following a wave of better than expected U.S. economic data. However, this favoritism is wearing thin as the S&P futures return earlier gains and the GBP/USD collapses. Regardless of today’s broad-based appreciation of the Dollar, the USD/JPY remains entrenched in its medium-term downtrend due to the currency pair’s incredible selloff since the beginning of August. The USD/JPY is well out of reach of our 1st tier uptrend line, and it seems the currency pair is headed for a battle with its psychological 90 level. Despite the USD/JPY’s negative tendency, the currency pair seems to be running out of room to the downside since it has historical trading ranges nearby dating back to December 2008 and January 2009 lows. Meanwhile, investors continue to act off of the belief that the DPJ will enact economic policies supportive of a stronger Yen. However, it remains to be seen whether the BoJ will alter its monetary policy approach in any dramatic way. Late Wednesday the BoJ will meet for the first time since the DPJ’s victory. Though we expect the BoJ to keep its monetary policy intact, such a large shift in governmental power does create a sense of uncertainty in the Yen crosses. In the meantime, the USD/JPY’s performance should be reliant on its negative correlation with U.S. equities, at least until Wednesday’s BoJ meeting that is.
Present Price: 91.25
Supports: 91.18, 90.96, 90.78, 90.57, 90.26
Resistances: 91.43, 91.65, 91.84, 92.04, 92.24
Psychological: 90

The S&P Futures Trade Near Par Despite Wave of Positive Data
U.S. economic data hit a home run today with Retail Sales, PPI, Business Inventories, and the Empire State Manufacturing Index all surpassing analyst expectations. However, the S&P futures are hovering around par as investors digest a barrage of cautionary outlooks from well-respected analysts. Tim Congdon from International Monetary Research reported that bank lending continues to decline at an alarming rate, compromising the foundation of the economic recovery. Furthermore, BoE Governor King implied that the central bank is leaning towards lowering the deposit rate it pays banks on reserves. Such a move should increase liquidity in Britain, and the Pound is taking a drubbing as a result. King’s incessant use of liquidity is increasing investor uncertainty that the economic recovery is not standing on as stable of footing as one would hope. These negative psychological shocks are countering the rather impressive performance of U.S. economic data. The most encouraging release is the Core Retail Sales number since it excludes auto and gasoline purchases. It will be interesting to see if the auto subsidies provided by the U.S. will ignite a more broad-based recovery in domestic consumption as we witnessed earlier this year in China. The breakdown in U.S. consumption has been the most disconcerting effect of the global economic downturn. Therefore, any considerable improvement in consumption is certainly noteworthy.
The U.S. will release more economic data throughout the week. Therefore, we anticipate the S&P futures may not be stuck in neutral for too long. Tomorrow the U.S. will release CPI, Current Account, TIC Long-Term Purchases, Capacity Utilization, and Industrial Production data. We will be curious to see the details of the TIC Long-Term Purchases data since investors are concerned that U.S. Treasuries are losing their appeal. Meanwhile, investors should keep a watch on the behavior of the EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and gold. Any further breakouts in the EUR/USD and gold to the topside or the USD/JPY to the downside could be a buy signal for U.S. equities. Investors should disregard the S&P’s correlation with the GBP/USD for the time being since the Pound is trading off of BoE activity rather than economic fundamentals. We maintain our positive outlook on the S&P futures since they continue to separate themselves from the highly psychological 1000 area. Furthermore, last week’s technical movements in the EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and gold are still intact, a positive catalyst for the S&P.
Price: 1050
Resistances: 1049.75, 1053
Supports: 1043.5, 1039.5, 1034.75, 1030.5, 1027.25
Psychological: 1050
Crude Consolidates Just Below $70/bbl
Crude futures are returning earlier gains after failing to break through the psychological $70/bbl level following much better than expected Retail Sales data. The optimistic Retail Sales data is an encouraging development for battered U.S. consumption. A recovery in Retail Sales implies an improvement in broad based consumption, lifting the price of crude. However, the positive impact from the outperformance of U.S. data is being countered by a collapse in the GBP/USD. BoE Governor King delivered another monetary shock today (refer to GBP/USD analysis), sending the Pound sharply lower against all of its major crosses. The negative performance of the GBP/USD is dragging on crude since it is a dollar-denominated commodity. On the other hand, it is encouraging to see the EUR/USD and gold holding steady despite the Cable’s negative performance. Therefore, investors may opt to hold crude above our 1st tier uptrend line for the time being. However, should crude drop below our 1st tier uptrend line, we could witness a heightened immediate-term selloff since it connects through previous September lows.
Friday’s selloff come on a surge in sell-side action, signaling investors are beginning to prefer the downtrend. Meanwhile, crude futures are stuck in the August trading range. OPEC stated publicly that it is comfortable with the $68-$72/bbl range. Hence, investors aren’t eager to send crude outside of this zone. However, our trend lines are gradually closing in on price, meaning crude futures will likely need to make a more concrete directional decision sooner or later. We are witnessing multiple inflection points today, implying volatility has the opportunity to rear its head in the next 24 hours. Meanwhile, investors should keep a sharp eye on activity in the Dollar to see whether the Euro and Yen can extend their gains against the Greenback. A combination of a weak Dollar and further positive performance in the S&P futures would provide a positive catalyst for crude and help counteract present weakness. We will maintain a neutral outlook on crude until the futures either break free of our 1st tier uptrend line or 3rd tier downtrend line. Since our 1st tier uptrend line is more vulnerable, the downtrend is favored for the time being.
Price: $68.86/bbl
Resistances: $69.39/bbl, $69.67/bbl, $70.03/bbl, $70.39/bbl, $70.94/bbl
Supports: $68.48/bbl, $68.11/bbl, $67.74/bbl, $67.38/bbl, $66.92/bbl
Psychological: $70/bbl

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