Daily Market Commentary


EUR/USD Flies as FX Markets Come to Life



The EUR/USD is screaming higher and we are witnessing the return to volatility forewarned by the multiple inflection points of our trend lines on both the EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Investors started the fall with the bang and we may finally be The Dollar is depreciating swiftly across the board as investors react to the surge in gold and a wave of statements predicting a large, medium-term flight from the Dollar due to the massive liquidity injected into the system to abate the credit crunch. The recent gold rush has proven to be a signal that investors are eager to divest from the Dollar in fear that hyper inflation may be around the bend. While we were speculating China might bring the topic of a new monetary standard to the forefront at the G20 meeting, it seems the global economy as a whole is beginning to step in unison regarding this very sensitive issue. Today’s reaction in the FX markets is a fundamental shift because investors are beginning to trade on the psychology of a resoundingly weaker Dollar instead of focusing on economic data. These two developments are energizing the bulls and giving them ammunition to finally select a new direction. Today’s movements are a resounding technical message with the EUR/USD and GBP/USD rising in unison as the USD/JPY retests previous September lows.

The EUR/USD has broken through our important 3rd tier downtrend line and is presently testing the psychological 1.45 level. The currency pair is setting fresh 2009 highs and appears to be leaving the August trading range behind. While the EUR/USD could experience a little hesitation at 1.45 in light of the extent of today’s upward movement, it seems the currency pair is headed for a new leg higher. We left our trend lines as is on our chart for today so you can view the currency pair’s reaction to the inflection points. All we need is a confirmation in heightened buy-side volume to solidify a new near-term uptrend. The next technical resistances to the topside are the EUR/USD’s psychological 1.45 level and December 2008 highs. As for the downside, August highs should serve as a support should they be tested.

Germany released disappointing Industrial Production number today and is taking a bite out of the Euro’s relative strength considering Britain’s Manufacturing Production data eclipsed analyst expectations. Volatility should only heat up as the week progresses considering tomorrow’s release of the Beige Book and the wealth of U.S., Chinese, and British economic news on Thursday. China’s Industrial Production number will be in focus since the recovery’s attention has been pinpointed on the resilience of China’s economy during the downturn. Any further cooling in China’s economic growth could take some wind out of the EUR/USD’s sails. On the other hand, a continual rise in China’s Industrial Production would only lead investors further away from the Dollar. Regardless, the EUR/USD’s movement today is a strong technical indicator in favor of the uptrend and we could see gains accelerate over the near to medium-term.

Present Price: 1.4479
Resistances: 1.4480, 1.4506, 1.4525, 1.4546, 1.4582
Supports: 1.4454, 1.4430, 1.4408, 1.4388, 1.4363
Psychological: 1.45

EUR/USD



GBP/USD Charges Higher Amid Broad Dollar Depreciation



The Cable has leapt past our 3rd tier downtrend line, and is trading just above the psychological 1.65 level as we witness a broad-based selloff of the Dollar. We recognize similar, aggressive movements in both the EUR/USD and USD/JPY confirming investor distaste for the Greenback. As we explained in today’s EUR/USD commentary, today’s volatility in the FX market is mostly based on concern that America’s massive injection of liquidity will ultimately result in a large depreciation of the Dollar as investors hedge against potential hyperinflation. We believe the concern is a result of talks at the G20 summit. Meanwhile, it’s widely known that gold has hit the highly psychological $1000/oz mark again. The recent gold rush is likely a result of the same fear surrounding future inflation. The multiple inflection points of our trend lines in both the GBP/USD and EUR/USD turned out to be a reliable sign for future volatility. Investors are sending a resounding technical message regarding their preference for the uptrend following a season of summer doldrums. Meanwhile, volatility should remain high as the week progresses considering we will receive a wealth of economic data from Britain, China, and the U.S. along with a monetary policy decision from the BOE on Thursday.

Despite today’s positive showing in Britain’s Manufacturing Production number, the GBP/USD’s gains may be capped from here on out as investors eagerly await Thursday’s BOE monetary policy decision. The BOE has been proactive regarding its alternative liquidity package as policy makers try to stymie the immediate threat of deflation. The BOE could remain in an aggressive monetary stance as they try to limit the Pound’s appreciation by injecting more liquidity so as not to derail the economic recovery taking root. Either way, volatility may not peak until we receive Thursday’s wave of news and data.

The BOE’s recent injection of liquidity has surely impacted the GBP/USD. While the EUR/USD has broken through August highs, the Cable’s August highs remain well out of reach. Therefore, the GBP/USD has a more complicated path ahead if the currency pair opts to head higher over the near-term as we anticipate. The first technical obstacles to the topside will be the psychological 1.65 level and the lid of the 8/13-8/21 trading range. The GBP/USD should experience more exciting topside movements beyond these barriers. As for the downside, the Cable has intraday lows and our 3rd tier downtrend line to fall back on.

Present Price: 1.6520
Resistances: 1.6552, 1.6570, 1.6593, 1.6611, 1.6635
Supports: 1.6520, 1.6498, 1.6478, 1.6460, 1.6442, 1.6417
Psychological: 1.65


GBP/USD




USD/JPY Looks to Test July Lows as Investors Exit the Dollar



The USD/JPY’s bounce ran out of steam as we anticipated and the currency pair was deflected by our 1st tier uptrend line today after buy-side volume proved insufficient. We recognize a rise in sell-side activity with investors exiting the Dollar amid fear that America’s liquidity measures will result in a broad-based devaluation over the medium-term. Both the EUR/USD and GBP/USD are experiencing a rapid appreciation against the Dollar as well today. We cautioned that a strong downward force is still bearing down on the USD/JPY with our 2nd tier downtrend line and makeshift 1st tier uptrend line fading into the distance. Investors are clearly favoring the Yen over the Dollar with important data from Japan, China, Britain and the U.S. on the way.

While investors will surely be scrutinizing Japan’s Core Machinery Orders data tomorrow, Thursday will be the center of attention with a monetary policy decision from the BOE coupled with key economic data from China. China’s data will be important for the Yen since Japan is much more reliant on its exports to the communist nation with consumption damaged in the West. Weak data from China and the U.S. could mitigate losses in the USD/JPY and help the currency pair keep its head above water. However, the combination of strong Industrial Production from China coupled with weak U.S. data would likely result in an aggressive appreciation of the Yen vs. the Dollar. Considering the downward pressure on the USD/JPY and topside breakouts in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD, it seems the USD/JPY’s pullback may have quite a ways to go over the near-term.

Technically speaking, the immediate-term key will be for the USD/JPY to stay above September lows. If not, we should see a quick test of July lows. Beneath these levels, the currency pair does have historical consolidation dating back to January and February trading ranges. Furthermore, the USD/JPY has the highly psychological 90 level to fall back on should the downturn pick up speed again. As for the topside, the USD/JPY needs to climb back above our 1st tier uptrend and 2nd tier downtrend lines along with previous September highs in order to save face.

Present Price: 92.14
Resistances: 92.27, 92.37, 92.54, 92.67, 92.76
Supports: 92.05, 91.95, 91.79, 91.64, 91.50
Psychological: 90


USD/JPY



Gold Stares Down February Highs



Gold is staring down February highs as the precious metal continues its impressive run. It seems these previous 2009 highs may soon become history considering gold has charged past our 3rd tier downtrend line running through 2008 and 2009 highs. However, current hesitation is easily understood as the precious metal deals with 2009 highs and the psychological $1000/oz area. Additionally, the EUR/USD and GBP/USD may soon encounter topside obstacles of their own. Regardless, we’ve witnessed technical breakouts to the topside in both of these currency pairs as well as further deterioration to the downside in the USD/JPY. Hence, investors are confirming their preference to hedge against inflation amid worries that America’s liquidity measures will haunt the Dollar down the road. This is all great news for gold considering the precious metal’s negative correlation with the Greenback. Even though gold’s rally may tap on the breaks today, volatility should pick up across the markets on Thursday with key economic data and news from Britain, China, and the U.S. We left our trend lines as is on our gold chart to give investors an idea of how price has responded to upcoming inflection points. Meanwhile, our 3rd tier downtrend line should serve as a technical cushion along with Friday lows. $1000/oz should continue to play a large role over the immediate-term considering its psychological significance.

Price: $1002.40/oz
Resistances: $1003.46/oz, $1005.46/oz, $1007.83/oz, $1010.26/oz, $1012.39/oz
Supports: $1000.38/oz, $998.16/oz, $996.62/oz, $993.55/oz, $991.84/oz
Psychological: $1000/oz


Gold



The S&P Futures Register Modest Gains Despite Dollar’s Depreciation



The S&P futures are experiencing only modest gains today despite the swift depreciation of the Dollar across the board. A weaker Greenback has normally correlated with stronger U.S. equities throughout the crisis. Hence, it’s a bit suspicious that the S&P futures are participating with the technical breakouts in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD. However, it could be that the Dollar’s depreciation and the rise of gold and now crude indicate an upcoming breakout to the topside in the S&P. After all, a deviation from these correlations would be odd and signify an important turn of events, which is highly unlikely. Investors may opt to keep the S&P futures range bound as they await the wave of data coming Thursday.

Investors will receive key data from the U.S., China and Britain along with a BOE monetary policy decision. Not to mention the Trade Balance and Core Machine Orders releases from Japan mixed in. Therefore, we’ll get a much clearer picture of how global demand and consumption is shaping up through trade balance and industrial production numbers. The spotlight will be on China’s Industrial Production data since analysts have been debating whether the Chinese economy is cooling off. If Industrial Production comes in light, the Dollar’s depreciation and the S&P’s rise may both come to a halt. However, we believe the technical breakouts in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD are a strong buy signal regarding the health of the global economy. Therefore, we expect Thursday’s economic data should prove to be a positive catalyst for the markets. The Fed will release the Beige Book tomorrow. Investors will dig for information regarding the Fed’s more intricate sentiment regarding the health of America’s economy and their future plans regarding alternative liquidity measures.

Meanwhile, the S&P futures are looking to separate themselves from 1000 once again. However, investors should still be wary considering the August run to 1030+ faded into a retracement. The technical barriers to the topside are August highs and our uptrend lines. As for the downside, the S&P futures have Monday lows and of course the highly psychological 1000 level to depend on.

Price: 1022.50
Resistances: 1025.25, 1030, 1035.5, 1039
Supports: 1017.75, 1013.5, 1005, 999.25, 994.25
Psychological: 1000



Crude Pops Past $70/bbl and Climbing Buy-Side Volume



Crude futures have darted beyond $70/bbl and our 1st and 2nd tier downtrend lines due to today’s rapid, broad-based depreciation of the Dollar. The Dollar’s weakness makes crude a more attractive import internationally since it is a Dollar-denominated commodity. Hence, bulls have received the development they’ve been looking for to send crude back to comfortable levels. The rise in buy-side activity only supports the strength of today’s movement to the topside. However, the S&P’s failure to participate thus far is bearing down on crude a bit, and could keep crude locked beneath our 3rd tier downtrend line for the time being.

Meanwhile, investors are eagerly awaiting Wednesday’s OPEC meeting followed by China’s wave of economic data on Thursday. Though investors are expecting OPEC to keep production unchanged, investors will be looking for guidance regarding the OPEC’s outlook for future consumption. In addition to the OPEC meeting, China’s economic data should have a noticeable impact on crude should Industrial Production come in above or below analyst expectations. China’s thirst for crude during the global economic downturn has attributed to crude’s impressive rebound from previous lows. Therefore, investors will be paying particularly close attention to the news wire on Thursday.

Correlation-wise, technical breakouts in both the EUR/USD and GBP/USD bode well for crude’s near-term outlook. All crude needs is for the S&P futures to follow suit before really causing some damage to the topside. Meanwhile, crude is experiencing multiple inflection points of its own. We expect volatility to pick up as the week progresses due to the wealth of data approaching. Technically speaking, crude has some more breathing room to the downside now with our 1st and 2nd tier downtrend and 1st tier uptrend lines serving as cushions along with the psychological $70/bbl level. As for the topside, crude futures must face our 3rd tier downtrend line and the lid of the August trading range, no easy feat. Regardless, crude is gaining momentum to the topside and yet needs a follow-through on large volume for confirmation.

Price: $71.50/bbl
Resistances: $71.78/bbl, $71.97/bbl, $72.31/bbl, $72.78/bbl, $73.14/bbl
Supports: $71.13/bbl, $70.91/bbl, $70.71/bbl, $70.18/bbl, $69.82/bbl
Psychological: $70/bbl


Crude






Disclaimer: FastBrokers' market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regarded neither as investment advice or as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. All materials are property of Fast Trading services, LLC and unless otherwise indicated, any unauthorized reproduction is prohibited.

Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.