EUR/USD Jogs Between our Trend Lines
The EUR/USD is recovering from earlier losses, bouncing from our 2nd tier uptrend line as the S&P futures float well above their psychological 1000 mark. The Euro has exerted incredible relative strength lately, exhibited by the breakout in the EUR/GBP. Euro bulls were inspired by Friday’s EU PMI data coupled with yesterday’s better than expected Industrial Production release. Industrial Production registered its strongest level of growth since August 2007 as global stimulus packages and auto purchase programs ignite EU factories. However, despite the EUR/USD’s resilience, the currency pair still faces our 2nd-4th tier downtrend lines. We believe out 4th tier downtrend line should be a key player since it runs through August highs. Hence, if the EUR/USD can take our 4th tier downtrend line, the currency pair will likely continue its upward momentum by retesting its previous 2009 highs.
Although we are receiving some important housing and consumer confidence data from the U.S. this morning, investors may wait until tomorrow’s German Ifo Business Climate release before dislodging the EUR/USD from its recent consolidative pattern. In addition to tomorrow’s Germany Ifo number, the U.S. will release Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales. The Durable Goods Orders data could have a large impact on the EUR/USD since it implies consumption and demand for the EU’s durable goods. Since manufacturing plays such a large role in both the German and French economies, better than expected durable goods data could send the EUR/USD past our 4th tier downtrend line, and vice-versa.
Meanwhile, economists are cautioning of asset bubbles caused by the global injections of liquidity, keeping the Dollar at bay and U.S. equity gains capped despite better than expected global economic data. However, although the liquidity measures surely pose a longer-term threat, we believe the immediate and near-term economic data releases should continue their theme of recovery and slight expansion. On the other hand, liquidity injections could come back to haunt the FX markets at the end of the 3rd quarter since investors will expect a growth in corporate earnings and shouldn’t be too impressed by gains from cost-cutting.
In all, investors should keep a close eye on the currency pair’s interaction with our downtrend lines. Near-term momentum remains to the upside despite investor uncertainty since economic data points have been outperforming expectations. However, if this week’s economic data comes in shy of analyst expectations the EUR/USD may opt to test the patience of our 1st tier uptrend line.
Present Price: 1.4325
Resistances: 1.4327, 1.4347, 1.4360, 1.4375, 1.4405
Supports: 1.4315, 1.4304, 1.4294, 1.4272, 1.4254
Psychological: 1.40, 1.45

GBP/USD’s Slide Bottoms Before 8/17 Lows
The Cable is recovering above 8/17 lows as investors headed to the Dollar with uncertainty rising in reaction to the words of caution from economists around the world. The Pound has been under considerable relative weakness the last week. Investors continue to punish the Pound amidst the confusion surrounding the BOE’s decision to inject 50 billion more into its QE package, not to mention King’s vote to tack on an addition 25 billion to the tab. However, the Pound may experience a reversal in fortune with some key British economic data on the way. Britain hasn’t released very much economic data since the BOE’s monetary policy decision, so investors seem to have forgotten that British economic data was beating analyst expectations before the BOE delivered its monetary shock. In fact, analysts were caught a bit off-guard by the BOE’s decision since Britain’s data had been encouraging. Our reaction to the BOE’s policy decision was one of belief that the central bank is attempting to devalue the Pound to keep currency from getting ahead of economic growth so as not to place British companies at a competitive disadvantage. Today’s BBA Mortgage Approvals number beat analyst expectations, supporting the argument that Britain’s housing market is in the midst of a remarkable recovery. Investors also shouldn’t forget Britain’s employment market has made vast improvements from the height of the economic downturn.
Though Britain won’t release anymore economic data today, we will receive Nationwide HPI and CBI Realized Sales on Thursday followed by Revised GDP on Friday. All of these data points are normally market-movers, allowing investors to value the Pound more on fundamentals than the negative psychological impact of the BOE’s injection of liquidity. We expect Britain’s data to continue to outperform, re-energizing the Pound and sending the Cable back towards the lid of its 8/13-8/21 trading range. However, if British and U.S. economic data underperforms the GBP/USD could test the patience of 8/17 lows. In the meantime, 1.65 should continue to have a psychological impact on the Cable as the currency pair waves between 1.64 and 1.66.
Present Price: 1.6399
Resistances: 1.6407, 1.6430, 1.6458, 1.6508, 1.6544
Supports: 1.6380, 1.6366, 1.6342, 1.6311, 1.6278
Psychological: 1.65

USD/JPY Heads Higher after Improvement in America’s HPI
Investors are nibbling on the USD/JPY after America’s HPI data came in nine basis points ahead of analyst expectations. The USD/JPY has experienced encouraging support in our 1st tier uptrend and 2nd tier downtrend lines while bulls work to avoid a retest of July lows. It remains to be seen whether the USD/JPY will opt to participate in a broad-based depreciation of the Dollar or choose to recover with U.S. equities. The decision will likely depend on the comparative performance of U.S. and Japanese economic data. Thus far, America’s economic data hasn’t been faring much better than Japan’s. Therefore, the Yen has appreciated against the Dollar despite breakouts in the S&P futures. Speaking of which, the S&P futures are separating themselves from 1000, and it will be interesting to see if the USD/JPY participate to the topside should U.S. equities continue their impressive climb.
Japan will release its Trade Balance during America’s evening session, creating the possibility of heightened volatility in the USD/JPY. Japan will also deliver Household Spending and its Tokyo Core CPI data points on Thursday. Investors will be eyeing tonight’s Trade Balance data to see whether there is a noticeable improvement in demand for Japan’s exports. A larger than expected surplus coupled with an outperformance in exports could help fuel an immediate-term global equity rally. However, it remains to be seen whether stronger Japanese data would have a positive or negative impact on the USD/JPY. While investors would expect the USD/JPY to exhibit a positive correlation with U.S. equities should Japan’s data beat expectations, investors could opt to favor the Yen over the Dollar instead. On the other hand, underperformance of Japan’s economic data coupled with rising U.S. equities would likely result in a healthy rise in the USD/JPY.
Meanwhile, the USD/JPY faces sizable medium-term downward pressure considering all of our downtrend lines the currency pair faces, not to mention the highly psychological 100 level waiting patiently in the distance. If our 1st tier uptrend line doesn’t hold, the USD/JPY could experience another leg down. As for the topside, bulls are hoping to get the USD/JPY back above its psychological 95 level. Regardless, we anticipate heightened near-term volatility with the flood of economic data. Our prediction is reinforced by the inflection points of our 1st tier uptrend and 2nd tier downtrend lines and our 2nd tier uptrend and 3rd tier downtrend lines.
Present Price: 94.22
Resistances: 94.53, 94.71, 94.95, 95.26, 95.54
Supports: 94.08, 93.88, 93.65, 93.42, 93.27
Psychological: 95

Gold Fluctuates Wildly around $950/oz
Gold sold off sharply yesterday on a surge in sell-side volume on the 1-hour despite the relative lack of economic data, only to climb back above $950/oz in reaction to a positive U.S. HPI number. However, the precious metal is edging back below $950/oz as investors react negatively to better than expected consumer confidence data. The negative response to an improvement in consumer confidence is odd, and we notice the S&P futures are relinquishing their pre-market gains. Meanwhile, the Dollar is strengthening in the wake of the consumer confidence news, only adding downward pressure on gold due to their negative correlation.
Despite gold’s wild fluctuations, the precious metal always tends to fluctuate back towards its psychological $950/oz level while setting higher lows and lower highs. Hence, we continue to view this wide correlation pattern leading towards an unknown end-point. Investors are likely waiting to see what happens to the Dollar’s trend since both the GBP/USD and EUR/USD have been consolidating heavily as well. Gold’s behavior reflects the overall investor decisiveness present in the marketplace as economists debate whether the economic recovery will be lasting or not.
Technically speaking, to the topside gold must deal with our 2nd tier and 3rd tier downtrend lines along with 8/21 highs. As for the downside, the precious metal has multiple technical cushions including our 3rd and 2nd tier uptrend lines along with intraday lows and the $940/oz level. Investors should pay attention to the EUR/USD’s interaction with our 2nd-4th tier downtrend lines. If the EUR/USD can break free of our 4th tier, gold may breakout to the upside since it has recently held a stronger positive correlation with this currency pair.
Present Price: $948.45/oz
Resistances: $949.69/oz, $951.21/oz, $952.35/oz, $953.74/oz, $954.88/oz
Supports: $947.28/oz, $945.51/oz, $944.50/oz, $942.98/oz, $941.46/oz
Psychological: $950/oz

The S&P Futures Edge Higher Despite Rise in Unemployment Claims
The S&P futures are stuck in neutral right now despite better than expected housing and consumer confidence data this morning. The positive splash of data is being countered by the U.S. government announcing that the economy is worse than they anticipated earlier this year. The negative psychological message is capping gains in the S&P. Economists continue to debate the longevity of the global economic recovery. Regardless, global economic data continues to outperform for the most part with EU and British reports eclipsing analyst expectations, including today’s BBA Mortgage Approvals.
The news-wire is going to heat up as the week progresses. Tomorrow the U.S. will release Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales along with the EU’s German Ifo Business Climate. Thursday will be the busiest session with America’s Prelim GDP number leading the headlines. Meanwhile, the S&P futures are creating some space between price and their highly psychological 1000 level, a key development in our eyes. Additionally, crude futures are creeping beyond $70/bbl with their 2009 highs in sight. However, the GBP/USD and EUR/USD have failed to break free of their downtrend pressures while gold gravitates around $950/oz. Hence, the S&P’s correlations aren’t participating to the topside as one would hope.
Regardless, there’s little technical/fundamental reason to question the S&P’s upward trajectory right now. Perhaps the Dollar is starting to appreciate with good U.S. economic news as opposed to the other way around, it’s just too early to determine. However, the response to this week’s data should give us a better idea of where the markets are headed for the near-term. If U.S. economic data outperforms on Wednesday and Thursday, we could witness explosive movements to the topside. As for the downside, the S&P futures have their intraday lows and our 1st tier uptrend line to fall back on.
Price: 1030.52
Resistances: 1032.75, 1038
Supports: 1026.25, 1020.75, 1018, 1010.75, 1004
Psychological: 1000
Crude Futures Consolidate as Investors Eye 2009 Highs
Crude futures are consolidating just below $75/bbl and their previous 2009 highs as the Dollar’s slight appreciation counterbalances the S&P futures’ positive performance. Correlations aside, near-term momentum is clearly in favor of the bulls since we haven’t seen a convincing pullback in crude for a while. However, further immediate-term consolidation with the possibility of a slight pullback is certainly feasible since crude faces some hefty technical barriers to the topside. Crude’s medium-term uptrend should remain intact as long as the futures can stay above our 1st tier uptrend line and the highly psychological $70/bbl. Meanwhile, the S&P futures are separating themselves from 1000, a key development psychologically. Crude futures are responding by leaving $70/bbl behind with the pick-up in domestic and global manufacturing and production. Investors got more good news this morning with U.S. consumer confidence data come in ahead of analyst expectations. The improvement in the confidence of America’s citizens should apply an upward force on crude’s price since it implies greater demand for crude down the road.
Investors are still debating the longevity of the current economic recovery and whether the global markets will experience a double-dip recession. Investor contemplation is keeping the S&P futures at bay and crude below $75/bbl. However, we will receive important economic data as the week progresses. If the data outpaces analyst expectations, this could propel crude futures to fresh 2009 highs. Investors will be watching tomorrow’s weekly inventory release closely since last week’s number registered a dramatic shortage. We attributed the shortage to the cash for clunkers program and the artificial boost this provided to production and demand for crude during the manufacturing process along with the transportation of finished goods (autos). We anticipate the added consumption of crude resulting from the cash for clunkers program could bleed over into this week’s release as well. Investors will also be paying close attention to tomorrow’s durable goods orders release since the headline figure includes autos. Meanwhile, if the S&P futures can breakout further and bring the EUR/USD with it, this could send crude futures beyond their technical topside barriers.
Price: $73.80/bbl
Resistances: $73.99/bbl, $74.24/bbl, $74.84/bbl, $75.21/bbl
Supports: $73.56/bbl, $73.15bbl, $72.73/bbl, $72.32/bbl, $72.02/bbl
Psychological: $70/bbl, $75/bbl

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