Daily Market Commentary
EUR/USD Pops Above 8/13 Highs after Positive PMI Data
The EUR/USD is making a solid move higher past 8/13-8/14 highs after the wave of PMI data came in above analyst expectations. In fact, a couple PMI data points are registering expansion (50+) while the rest are making a strong case to do the same. Such positive improvements in data tend to have a larger impact on the EUR/USD than the GBP/USD since the ECB’s interest rate remains at 1%. The growth in PMI mirrors the expansion we saw in the EU’s Economic Sentiment data released earlier this week. Hence, the EU is making a good case for returning to GDP growth in H2. The EUR/USD is reacting accordingly, knocking on the door of our readjusted 2nd tier downtrend line. The EUR/USD is now in an advantageous position since our downtrend lines are tight. If the EUR/USD can get above our 4th tier downtrend line, the currency pair may experience exciting movements to the topside since the 4th tier runs through August highs. Hence, a breakdown of our 4th tier downtrend line would likely yield a retest of August 5th highs.
Meanwhile, the S&P futures are staring down their own August highs as investors await Existing Home Sales data. A large increase in this data set could propel the S&P futures to new 2009 highs and add fire to the EUR/USD’s upward momentum due to their positive correlation. However, disappointing Existing Home Sales data could drag the S&P futures back towards 1000 and keep the EUR/USD locked beneath our 4th tier downtrend line for the session. Regardless, momentum is clearly in favor of the upside do to positive developments in EU economic data.
Present Price: 1.4337
Resistances: 1.4350, 1.4360, 1.4375, 1.4405, 1.4420
Supports: 1.4237, 1.4315, 1.4304, 1.4294, 1.4264
Psychological: 1.40
GBP/USD Stares Down 8/13 Highs After Positive EU and U.S. Data
The Cable is moving higher after EU PMI and U.S. Existing Home Sales data surpassed analyst expectations. The S&P futures are setting new 2009 highs while the EUR/USD tests some important technical barriers to the topside. However, the GBP/USD is only participating partially since investors are still sour about the level of debt in Britain. Furthermore, this has been a relatively light week data-wise for the UK, giving investors less incentive to be bullish on the Pound after the surprising details of the BOE’s meeting minutes. The Cable is participating nonetheless, since a breakout in the S&P futures is certainly positive for the concept of a global economic recovery. Meanwhile, we noticed investors started snapping up the USD/JPY after the U.S. Existing Homes Data, showing us investors are dipping their toes back into risk. This is positive for the GBP/USD’s near-term outlook since the Pound should be considered a riskier currency at the point in time.
Despite today’s breakout in the S&P futures and the GBP/USD’s tilt upwards, the currency pair still faces our 3rd tier downtrend line and August 13th highs. The GBP/USD will likely need some solid backing volume-wise to get past these two technical obstacles. The currency pair continues to gravitate towards its psychological 1.65 range, and is stuck in a consolidative mindset right now. However, the GBP/USD’s near and medium-term slopes are positive, giving us reason to believe momentum ultimately lies in favor of the bulls. Meanwhile, the Cable has our 1st and 2nd trend lines to fall back on along with intraday and 8/19 lows. Britain’s economic data will get a little more active next week, beginning with Nationwide HPI on Monday.
Present Price: 1.6517
Resistances: 1.6551, 1.6569, 1.6608, 1.6631, 1.6659
Supports: 1.6512, 1.6482, 1.6455, 1.6430, 1.6407
Psychological: 1.65
USD/JPY Bumps Higher after U.S. Existing Home Sales Data
Investors are biting on the USD/JPY after U.S. Existing Home Sales beat analyst expectations. The USD/JPY’s about face shows the level of uncertainty surrounding the viability of the Dollar. Investors are suddenly more comfortable buying the Dollar after a series of positive global economic data. However, the USD/JPY still clearly faces significant downward pressure, and it will take more than one session of data to turn things around. On the other hand, we’re sure it’s comforting for the BOJ to see the USD/JPY forming some sort of bottom as the currency pair tries to get back to its psychological 95 level. Meanwhile, the S&P futures and leapt to fresh 2009 highs, a positive development for the concept of a global economic recovery. We will have to monitor whether the S&P futures can separate themselves further from their highly psychological 1000 level. If so, the USD/JPY may be inclined to follow U.S. equities higher as investors cautiously return to risk.
Technically speaking, the USD/JPY’s obstacles to the topside are our 3rd tier downtrend line and the psychological 95 level. We created a near 1st tier uptrend line running through July’s bottom. Our 2nd tier uptrend line is approaching its inflection point with our 3rd tier downtrend line, indicating volatility could escalate. The trend collision could be positive for the USD/JPY since the currency pair’s momentum is in favor of the bulls today.
Present Price: 94.61
Resistances: 94.71, 94.95, 95.26, 95.44, 95.96
Supports: 94.36, 94.08, 93.88, 93.65, 93.42
Psychological: 95
Gold Darts Past $950/oz in the Wake of Positive Data
The EUR/USD broke out to the upside after positive PMI data, and gold responded. The precious metal rode past our 3rd tier uptrend and 2nd tier downtrend lines on its way to $950/oz. However, Gold’s rally is pausing after better than expected U.S. Existing Home Sales data caused the Dollar to appreciate. Gold is not quite sure which direction to head in with the Dollar appreciating and the S&P futures setting fresh 2009 highs. Hence, the precious metal is in a correlative flux. Regardless, today’s movement is certainly positive and shows gold is still in a medium-term uptrend despite recent weakness. That being said, the precious metal must deal with a couple strong technical obstacles to the topside.
First, gold must face August 13th highs and our 3rd tier downtrend line. The significance of August 13th levels seems to be a recurring theme throughout the FX market. Furthermore, gold may still gravitate towards its highly psychological $950/oz area as it has in the past. As for the downside, today’s encouraging upward movement creates several comfortable technical cushions beginning with our 2nd tier downtrend and 3rd tier uptrend lines. Additionally, we should consider $950/oz as much of a cushion as it is a barrier. A key for gold will be leaving behind the lid of its 7/20-7/28 trading range. If the S&P futures add onto their gains today and the Dollar depreciates, gold could find the energy to extend its upward momentum. On the other hand, a rising S&P and appreciating Dollar may leave gold stuck in a correlative crossroads.
Present Price: $953.20/oz
Resistances: $953.82/oz, $954.38/oz, $955.52/oz, $956.78/oz, $959.19/oz
Supports: $952.22/oz, $951.34/oz, $950.07/oz, $949.18/oz, $947.28/oz
Psychological: $950/oz
Disclaimer: FastBrokers' market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regarded neither as investment advice or as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. All materials are property of Fast Trading services, LLC and unless otherwise indicated, any unauthorized reproduction is prohibited.
Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.
EUR/USD Pops Above 8/13 Highs after Positive PMI Data
The EUR/USD is making a solid move higher past 8/13-8/14 highs after the wave of PMI data came in above analyst expectations. In fact, a couple PMI data points are registering expansion (50+) while the rest are making a strong case to do the same. Such positive improvements in data tend to have a larger impact on the EUR/USD than the GBP/USD since the ECB’s interest rate remains at 1%. The growth in PMI mirrors the expansion we saw in the EU’s Economic Sentiment data released earlier this week. Hence, the EU is making a good case for returning to GDP growth in H2. The EUR/USD is reacting accordingly, knocking on the door of our readjusted 2nd tier downtrend line. The EUR/USD is now in an advantageous position since our downtrend lines are tight. If the EUR/USD can get above our 4th tier downtrend line, the currency pair may experience exciting movements to the topside since the 4th tier runs through August highs. Hence, a breakdown of our 4th tier downtrend line would likely yield a retest of August 5th highs.
Meanwhile, the S&P futures are staring down their own August highs as investors await Existing Home Sales data. A large increase in this data set could propel the S&P futures to new 2009 highs and add fire to the EUR/USD’s upward momentum due to their positive correlation. However, disappointing Existing Home Sales data could drag the S&P futures back towards 1000 and keep the EUR/USD locked beneath our 4th tier downtrend line for the session. Regardless, momentum is clearly in favor of the upside do to positive developments in EU economic data.
Present Price: 1.4337
Resistances: 1.4350, 1.4360, 1.4375, 1.4405, 1.4420
Supports: 1.4237, 1.4315, 1.4304, 1.4294, 1.4264
Psychological: 1.40
GBP/USD Stares Down 8/13 Highs After Positive EU and U.S. Data
The Cable is moving higher after EU PMI and U.S. Existing Home Sales data surpassed analyst expectations. The S&P futures are setting new 2009 highs while the EUR/USD tests some important technical barriers to the topside. However, the GBP/USD is only participating partially since investors are still sour about the level of debt in Britain. Furthermore, this has been a relatively light week data-wise for the UK, giving investors less incentive to be bullish on the Pound after the surprising details of the BOE’s meeting minutes. The Cable is participating nonetheless, since a breakout in the S&P futures is certainly positive for the concept of a global economic recovery. Meanwhile, we noticed investors started snapping up the USD/JPY after the U.S. Existing Homes Data, showing us investors are dipping their toes back into risk. This is positive for the GBP/USD’s near-term outlook since the Pound should be considered a riskier currency at the point in time.
Despite today’s breakout in the S&P futures and the GBP/USD’s tilt upwards, the currency pair still faces our 3rd tier downtrend line and August 13th highs. The GBP/USD will likely need some solid backing volume-wise to get past these two technical obstacles. The currency pair continues to gravitate towards its psychological 1.65 range, and is stuck in a consolidative mindset right now. However, the GBP/USD’s near and medium-term slopes are positive, giving us reason to believe momentum ultimately lies in favor of the bulls. Meanwhile, the Cable has our 1st and 2nd trend lines to fall back on along with intraday and 8/19 lows. Britain’s economic data will get a little more active next week, beginning with Nationwide HPI on Monday.
Present Price: 1.6517
Resistances: 1.6551, 1.6569, 1.6608, 1.6631, 1.6659
Supports: 1.6512, 1.6482, 1.6455, 1.6430, 1.6407
Psychological: 1.65
USD/JPY Bumps Higher after U.S. Existing Home Sales Data
Investors are biting on the USD/JPY after U.S. Existing Home Sales beat analyst expectations. The USD/JPY’s about face shows the level of uncertainty surrounding the viability of the Dollar. Investors are suddenly more comfortable buying the Dollar after a series of positive global economic data. However, the USD/JPY still clearly faces significant downward pressure, and it will take more than one session of data to turn things around. On the other hand, we’re sure it’s comforting for the BOJ to see the USD/JPY forming some sort of bottom as the currency pair tries to get back to its psychological 95 level. Meanwhile, the S&P futures and leapt to fresh 2009 highs, a positive development for the concept of a global economic recovery. We will have to monitor whether the S&P futures can separate themselves further from their highly psychological 1000 level. If so, the USD/JPY may be inclined to follow U.S. equities higher as investors cautiously return to risk.
Technically speaking, the USD/JPY’s obstacles to the topside are our 3rd tier downtrend line and the psychological 95 level. We created a near 1st tier uptrend line running through July’s bottom. Our 2nd tier uptrend line is approaching its inflection point with our 3rd tier downtrend line, indicating volatility could escalate. The trend collision could be positive for the USD/JPY since the currency pair’s momentum is in favor of the bulls today.
Present Price: 94.61
Resistances: 94.71, 94.95, 95.26, 95.44, 95.96
Supports: 94.36, 94.08, 93.88, 93.65, 93.42
Psychological: 95
Gold Darts Past $950/oz in the Wake of Positive Data
The EUR/USD broke out to the upside after positive PMI data, and gold responded. The precious metal rode past our 3rd tier uptrend and 2nd tier downtrend lines on its way to $950/oz. However, Gold’s rally is pausing after better than expected U.S. Existing Home Sales data caused the Dollar to appreciate. Gold is not quite sure which direction to head in with the Dollar appreciating and the S&P futures setting fresh 2009 highs. Hence, the precious metal is in a correlative flux. Regardless, today’s movement is certainly positive and shows gold is still in a medium-term uptrend despite recent weakness. That being said, the precious metal must deal with a couple strong technical obstacles to the topside.
First, gold must face August 13th highs and our 3rd tier downtrend line. The significance of August 13th levels seems to be a recurring theme throughout the FX market. Furthermore, gold may still gravitate towards its highly psychological $950/oz area as it has in the past. As for the downside, today’s encouraging upward movement creates several comfortable technical cushions beginning with our 2nd tier downtrend and 3rd tier uptrend lines. Additionally, we should consider $950/oz as much of a cushion as it is a barrier. A key for gold will be leaving behind the lid of its 7/20-7/28 trading range. If the S&P futures add onto their gains today and the Dollar depreciates, gold could find the energy to extend its upward momentum. On the other hand, a rising S&P and appreciating Dollar may leave gold stuck in a correlative crossroads.
Present Price: $953.20/oz
Resistances: $953.82/oz, $954.38/oz, $955.52/oz, $956.78/oz, $959.19/oz
Supports: $952.22/oz, $951.34/oz, $950.07/oz, $949.18/oz, $947.28/oz
Psychological: $950/oz
Disclaimer: FastBrokers' market commentary is provided for information purposes only and under no circumstances should be regarded neither as investment advice or as a solicitation or an offer to sell/buy any financial product. FastBrokers assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein contained. All materials are property of Fast Trading services, LLC and unless otherwise indicated, any unauthorized reproduction is prohibited.
Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors.
