EUR/USD Climbs to Safety after Positive Unemployment Rate Data
The EUR/USD is rising quickly after basing yesterday in reaction to the surprise decline in Germany’s unemployment change number. Today’s EU unemployment rate data confirmed the improving employment market in Europe. The EUR/USD has popped above our 1st and 2nd tier uptrend and 2nd tier downtrend lines, separating itself from the highly psychological 1.40 level. However, optimism is a bit mixed since the EU CPI flash estimate came in two basis points below analyst expectations. The EU continues to face deflationary pressures despite declining unemployment and rising consumer confidence. Therefore, the ECB may need to lower rates again or increase the funding to its alternative liquidity measures since the injection of liquidity doesn’t seem to be having a potent enough impact on prices. The possibility of an increase in liquidity is creating a drag on the Euro, noted in the subpar performance of the EUR/GBP. Regardless, the improvement in unemployment and consumer in confidence is key since prices and industrial production should follow later.
Meanwhile, the spread between German and Greek bonds continues to narrow, showing investors are willing to take more risk with their EU investments. Additionally, we’ve seen mixed yet positive data from the U.S. recently, giving the EUR/USD more motivation to recovery strongly Wednesday’s pullback. On a cautionary note, Deutsche Bank’s CEO, Josef Ackermann, warned that individual and small business delinquencies may cause another wave of financial turmoil. However, investors are focusing on the immediate-term once again rather than dire remarks regarding the medium-term. Global economic fundamentals are improving and immediate-term, concrete data is telling a positive story.
The EUR/USD’s defense of 1.40 has been impressive, yet expected. The EUR/USD is logging some encouraging volume on the buy-side while the currency pair’s correlations make positive moves. Despite the recovery in the EUR/USD, the currency pair still has to deal with our 3rd tier downtrend line and previous July highs. July highs could prove to be problematic since the contraction in CPI and PPI are capping gains in the Euro. Additionally, the S&P futures are trading just below their highly psychological 1000 mark. The EUR/USD may need the S&P to tackle 1000 before the currency pair can take down its own July highs. Since we believe 1000 should prove to be a worthy obstacle, the EUR/USD could continue to slope downwards in a consolidative fashion from daily highs for the near-term. This analysis seems realistic considering investors may hesitate ahead of the ECB meeting on Wednesday. The ECB has issued surprise monetary shocks in the past, and an injection of liquidity next week isn’t entirely out of the question considering this week’s pricing data.
Present Price: 1.4195
Resistances: 1.4196, 1.4214, 1.4225, 1.4242, 1.4266
Supports: 1.4176, 1.4165, 1.4154, 1.4136, 1.4117
Psychological: 1.40

GBP/USD Locks and Pops from our Inflection Point
The Cable is registering exciting gains after locking in on the inflection point of our 2nd tier uptrend and 3rd tier downtrend lines. The GBP/USD was denied by our 3rd tier downtrend line on three previous attempts, and finally broke through on the fourth go around. The Pound’s exertion of a relative strength is paying dividends as the GBP/USD aims for previous July highs. This is a very bullish move by the GBP/USD, and there are not many barriers left standing in the Cable’s way of 1.70. Meanwhile, the GBP/USD has separated itself from 1.65 while volume rises to the upside. We notice similar, large movements in both gold and the EUR/USD, confirming the weight of today’s breakout. However, the GBP/USD may opt to top out today beneath previous July lows since next week is Britain’s turn to highlight economic data headlines. Investors may want to see how upcoming economic data fares, and possibly the BOE’s monetary policy decision before making a full commitment to 1.70.
Britain will kick off next week with its Halifax HPI and Manufacturing PMI data points. Investors will be looking for continual improvement in Britain’s housing market, confirming yesterday’s positive Nationwide HPI and last week’s better than expected BBA Mortgage Approvals data points. Investors will be paying particularly close attention to the data points leading up to Thursday’s BOE monetary policy decision. More positive signs in economic data may lead investors to believe that the BOE won’t touch its QE package, a good sign for the GBP/USD. However, negative data points could have the opposite effect. However, economic data has already made enough encouraging developments in unemployment and housing, leading us to believe that the BOE meeting will adjourn on a positive note. Either way, investors will likely trade on the rumor before the BOE makes its decision.
Regardless of fundamentals, the GBP/USD is making a technical bull charge today. Our 3rd tier downtrend line is the final near-term downtrend line for quite a while, meaning the Cable could have a good amount of room to run. However, such moves can often get overextended, meaning the currency pair should log a healthy consolidative pullback sometime in the near-future. We can’t find too many negative things to say about the Cable’s technicals, usually a positive sign.
Present Price: 1.6661
Resistances: 1.6662, 1.6684, 1.6739, 1.6864, 1.6969
Supports: 1.6624, 1.6600, 1.6563, 1.6532, 1.6506
Psychological: 1.70, 1.65

USD/JPY Buckles on Climbing Volume after Mixed U.S. Eco. Data
The USD/JPY is back below 95 and our 1st tier uptrend line as it reaches an inflection point with our 2nd tier downtrend line. Volume is sizable, showing investors are backing today’s decline. The combination of weaker than expected Japanese Industrial Production and Household Spending coupled with mixed U.S. GDP data regarding consumption is proving too much for the USD/JPY’s uptrend to handle. The mixed consumption data from the U.S. GDP number is taking some of the luster away from the optimism surrounding America’s economic recovery. As we explained before, the uptrend in the USD/JPY is presently reliant on a comparatively stronger U.S. economy vs. Japanese economy. Since both central banks lowered their benchmark rates close to zero while initiating QE and alternative liquidity policies, the valuation of the USD/JPY is heavily influenced by comparative economic performance of the two nations. An appreciating Yen only inflicts more damage on fragile Japanese exporters since higher prices of Japanese products could discourage foreign consumers.
Meanwhile, the S&P futures are staring up at their highly psychological 1000 level. The 1000 mark should prove to be a tough obstacle, meaning the S&P could have limited near-term mobility to the upside. This could cap gains in the USD/JPY since the currency pair is positively correlated with U.S. equities. Technically speaking, it would be an encouraging sign if the USD/JPY could fight back above our 1st tier uptrend line as it collides with our 2nd tier downtrend line. The currency pair will need to deal with the psychological 95 level again while our 3rd tier downtrend line gradually approaches. As for the downside, the USD/JPY has 7/29 and 7/23 lows to fall back on should the situation deteriorate.
Present Price: 94.62
Resistances: 94.99, 95.73, 96.33, 96.77, 97.20
Supports: 94.49, 93.82, 93.28, 92.90, 92.39
Psychological: 95

Gold Rockets Past $950/oz with Depreciating Greenback
Gold has recovered from July 15 lows, and is surging back past the psychological $950/oz on considerable volume. The turnaround in gold has been unbelievable, recovering all of Wednesday’s losses in the process. The excitement in gold comes with a broad-based depreciation of the Greenback. Meanwhile, the GBP/USD is making a technical bullish move and crude are popping back towards $70/bbl. Hence, it seems confidence is returning in regards to the concept of a global economic recovery and gold is reaping the rewards. Our 2nd tier downtrend line and July 27 highs serve as the major immediate-term barriers. An eclipse of these obstacles could carry the precious metal towards our 3rd tier downtrend line in a hurry.
The buy-side action today is encouraging, and it seems investors are setting up gold for another bull leg up. However, we believe gold may want on its near-term barriers with key economic data from Britain and BOE/ECB monetary policy decision on the way. Furthermore, the S&P futures still need to deal with their highly psychological 1000 level. Regardless, gold is reversing its misfortune and making a loud statement today. The precious metal just needs a follow-through and we could see near-term gains accelerate. As for the downside, gold has three fresh uptrend lines to fall back on along with the psychological $950/oz and our bottom-end supports.
Present Price: $952.25/oz
Resistances: $953.78/oz, $955.13/oz, $956.62/oz, $958.12/oz, $959.32/oz
Supports: $951.09/oz, $949.55/oz, $948.39/oz, $946.79/oz, $945.70/oz
Psychological: $950/oz

Crude Futures Re-approach $70/bbl as Congress Expands ‘Clunkers’ Package
Crude futures have reversed from Wednesday lows with conviction, logging large gains for the second straight session on considerable buy-side volume. Investors snapped up crude after America’s ‘Cash for Clunkers’ plan proved very successful. The concept of an increase in automobile purchases reignited crude, sending the futures to huge gains on Thursday. However, one would think that the upgrade to more fuel efficient vehicles would have a negative impact on consumption of crude. Regardless, crude nets an immediate impact, especially since it appears individuals are opting to buy more fuel efficient Asian-made vehicles. The new automobiles need to be transported vast distances from production to purchase, consuming crude in the process.
In addition to the ‘clunkers’ impact, crude is add onto yesterday’s gains as the Greenback experiences a swift depreciation across the board. A depreciated Dollar makes crude cheaper to import, increasing potential demand and decreasing price. Furthermore, today’s Chicago PMI shows the data point continues to ascend towards 50, or the barrier between growth and contraction. The increase in production implies greater consumption of greater, improving the upward momentum of crude. Overall, investors are making a loud statement today, backing the argument for a global economic recovery. As a result, investors are shrugging off the downward revision in U.S. GDP.
Meanwhile, we’ve adjusted all of our levels and trend lines to compensate for the bull run over the past 24 hours. Crude futures are looking to retest July 28th highs, with our 2nd tier downtrend line and the psychological $70/bbl serving as the next obstacles after these highs. The ability of crude to overcome its near-term barriers will likely rely on the wave of key economic data from Britain next week with BOE and ECB monetary policy decisions on the table. Investors should keep in mind inventories showed a dramatic rise this week. It will be interesting to see if a surplus pattern emerges for this could drag on near-term gains. As for the downside, crude has two new uptrend lines to rely on along with June 23rd lows.
Present Price: $68.36/bbl
Resistances: $68.62/bbl, $68.92/bbl, $69.23/bbl, $69.71/bbl, $70.49/bbl
Supports: $67.90/bbl, $67.61/bbl, $67.09/bbl, $66.56/bbl, $66.40/bbl
Psychological: $70/bbl, $65/bbl

S&P Futures Enter Debate with 1000
The S&P futures are entering their battle with the highly psychological 1000 level after unemployment claims held under 600k and GDP/PMI data came in better than expected. Though investors are a bit concerned about the downward revision in the previous GDP release and the lag in U.S. consumption, the headline number still came in 4 basis points ahead of consensus(-1% vs. -1.4%). While the S&P futures are hesitating just below 1000, the S&P’s correlations are running wild with the news. Crude, gold, the GBP/USD, and EUR/USD are all experiencing large breakouts to the upside, giving the S&P futures courage to meet 1000 head on.
The near-term momentum appears to be shifting from mixed to optimistic in a hurry, especially after America’s ‘cash for clunkers’ package drained in a hurry. Despite the upward momentum provided by the S&P’s correlations, 1000 should still be a difficult barrier to deal with, particularly in the near-term. Investors will likely wait to see how economic data shapes up next week and how the monetary decisions of the BOE and ECB pan out on Thursday. Bulls will be looking for the BOE and ECB to hold their alternative liquidity measures steady while signaling no intention of injecting more funds. If economic data surpasses expectations and central banks leave their meetings on an optimistic note, the S&P futures could have the fuel to pop past 1000 with a bullet.
Scanning the board, we notice the 30 Year T-Bond futures continue their drive higher. Hence, it appears the bond auctions are faring just fine despite all of the media speculation. In fact, the 30 Year futures are on a nice little run with considerable volume backing their upward movements. Therefore, investors shouldn’t worry too much about bond yields right now. This is more good news for the S&P futures, clearing the runway for a showdown with 1000.
Technically speaking, the S&P futures largest barrier is obviously the psychological 1000 zone. Meanwhile, the futures are building a nice base above July 24th lows that can serve as an immediate-term cushion. In addition to the base the futures also have our 1st and 2nd tier uptrend lines to fall back on.
Present Price: 985.50
Resistances: 990.25, 994.25
Supports: 981.50, 977.5, 971, 966.25, 963
Psychological: 1000, 950
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