EUR/USD Slumps after Sluggish Earnings
The EUR/USD is logging sizable losses today after BP and U.S. Steel issued disappointing earnings releases. The EUR/USD has dropped beneath our 2nd and 3rd tier downtrend lines on moderate volume. Both commodity-related earnings releases worry investors that production and consumption may not be picking up as much as analysts hoped. The most disconcerting is U.S. Steel’s cautious outlook for Q3, denting projected near-term aggregate demand and consumption. Also weighing on the EUR/USD is a weaker than expected CB consumer confidence number from the U.S. Since the EU has no data on the table today, the EUR/USD is taking its cue from U.S. equities. Therefore, the EUR/USD has little positive immediate-term catalysts to rely on.
Despite today’s weakness, the EUR/USD remains comfortably above 7/23 lows and our 1st and 2nd tier uptrend lines. Additionally, the EUR/USD hasn’t experienced any abnormally high volume on the sell-side so far today. Therefore, the currency pair’s present uptrend is intact. The EUR/USD is finding strength in yesterday’s GfK Consumer Confidence number coming in well above analyst expectations, continuing its upward trend while highlighting a more optimistic European consumer. The consumer confidence number adds onto Friday’s better than expected PMI data points, helping counterbalance the negative pricing and production numbers from earlier last week. The EU also released its M3 money supply on Monday. Though the headline number came in line with analyst expectations, the money supply continues its downward trajectory. This means that the ECB will be less inclined to begin tightening its monetary policy any time in the near future. However, the decline in the M3 money supply could be slowing down, creating the possibility of a new base.
On another encouraging note, the bond spreads between EU countries are narrowing, indicating that uncertainty is abating concerning the near-term stability of the troublesome economies of Ireland and Greece. If the weaker economies of the EU region can continue to stabilize, this could have a positive near to medium-term impact on the Euro. Improvement within the smaller economies of the EU could also indicate that Eastern European economies may begin to notice signs of improvement as well. This would be a key development for the Euro since shortcomings in Eastern Europe have inflicted damage on EU banks exposed via high risk loans. Therefore, the medium-term picture is gradually improving for the EUR/USD.
Regardless of the medium-term picture, the EUR/USD should continue to take its immediate-term cue from U.S. equities. Hence, investors should keep a close eye on the S&P future to monitor their ability to hold together above our 2nd tier uptrend line. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD still has July 23rd lows and our uptrend lines to rely on. As for the upside, the EUR/USD must face our 2nd and 3rd tier downtrend lines along with the lid constructed from 7/21-7/28 highs.
Present Price: 1.4178
Resistances: 1.4183, 1.4197, 1.4215, 1.4234, 1.4250
Supports: 1.4157, 1.4142, 1.4117, 1.4094, 1.4078
Psychological: 1.40

GBP/USD Rejected by our 3rd Tier Downtrend Line
The Cable is gaining back some earlier losses, bouncing off of our 2nd tier uptrend line after being rejected by our 3rd tier downtrend line once more. However, the Pound is experiencing some relative strength despite the weaker than expected realized sales data from the CBI. Today’s CBI number caught us a bit off guard since retail sales came in better than expected last week. At least the CBI reading logged a slight improvement from last week’s release. The Cable is under immediate-term downward pressure along with the EUR/USD as investors react negatively to the mixed 2nd quarter earnings and economic data from today. The S&P futures are halting their precipitous rise as the mixed news gives investors an excuse to take some profits from last week’s run. The Cable is following U.S. equities lower due to their positive correlation. However, the GBP/USD’s uptrend is intact as is the EUR/USD’s. The Cable remains above our 2nd tier uptrend line with 7/27 lows and our 1st tier uptrend line ready to defend should they be called upon. Furthermore, the GBP/USD hasn’t experienced any heighted activity on the sell-side thus far today, so investors should keep an eye on volume.
Despite today’s resilience in the Cable, Friday’s much weaker than expected GDP from Britain spooked Cable investors a bit, negating progress made by higher retail sales and mortgage approvals data. However, sentiment concerning the GBP/USD could improve as the week progresses since Britain should continue to show positive progress in unemployment and pricing. Therefore, the discouraging GDP figure could be brushed aside for the time being. Upside movements in the Cable could be limited with the S&P futures approaching their highly psychological 1000 level. It’s interesting that neither the GBP/USD nor the EUR/USD participated in Thursday’s key breakout to the upside in U.S. equities. The Cable’s lack of correlation could indicate an immediate-term downward tendency, and it may take a 1000+ S&P for the GBP/USD to crack June highs. Hence, with 1000 looming overhead and the S&P surging 11% last week, U.S. equities may have overheated. If this is the case, the Cable would likely follow a pullback in the S&P.
Britain will release net lending data tomorrow, and investors will look to see if banks are letting more liquidity flow to small businesses and individuals. Altogether, the GBP/USD’s uptrend is healthy despite today’s setback. Unfortunately for the bulls, the Cable’s battle with the psychological 1.65 area lives to see another day. The GBP/USD should continue to log limited gains until 1.65 and our 3rd tier downtrend line are overcome.
Present Price: 1.6439
Resistances: 1.6441, 1.6467, 1.6500, 1.6542, 1.6555
Supports: 1.6405, 1.6372, 1.6347, 1.6324, 1.6301
Psychological: 1.65

USD/JPY Drops Through our 1st Tier Uptrend Line
The USD/JPY is deflecting from our 2nd tier downtrend line as it gradually reaches an inflection point with our 1st tier uptrend line. The currency pair is following U.S. equities lower with investors locking in profits after today’s mixed earnings and economic data releases. The USD/JPY is logging moderate losses after the currency pair gave bulls hope by bouncing off of our 1st tier uptrend line. Meanwhile, we still haven’t seen a real commitment to the upside with volume on a steady decline since July lows. It seems the USD/JPY has little independent strength, and its stabilization/recovery depends largely upon the uptrend in U.S. equities. Japanese economic data provides little evidence supporting a sustainable recovery in the country’s manufacturing/export sectors. Hence, the S&P’s ability to gather itself after profit taking and make a move for 1000 could be key for the USD/JPY in piecing together a noteworthy rally of its own. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY has a few cushions to the downside, including 7/23 lows and our 1st tier downtrend line. As for the upside, the USD/JPY needs to overcome our 2nd tier downtrend line and leave the psychological 95 area behind before even considering a move towards our 3rd tier downtrend line.
Present Price: 94.76
Resistances: 94.99, 95.73, 96.33, 96.77, 97.20
Supports: 94.49, 93.82, 93.28, 92.90, 92.39
Psychological: 95

Gold Logs Huge Losses
Gold is experiencing a huge selloff today and we currently can’t find any reasonable explanation. Gold has crashed below all off our uptrend lines, leaving the comforts of its strong trading base behind. While the Dollar is appreciating across the board and the S&P futures are sinking, all over movements are not nearly as protracted as gold’s. Is gold sending a message of a large, pending pullback in U.S. equities and rapid appreciation of the Dollar, or are we just witnessing institutional/governmental trading? We believe gold’s large pullback today could either be the result of investor anxiety in the wake of CFTC meetings on curbing commodity trading, or a governmental shift of reserves. Most interestingly, gold has not experienced a large spike in activity as one would expect with such a huge movement. Gold may cut its losses around $935/oz since the bottom of the 7/15-7/20 range should provide some immediate-term support. Regardless, this is an eye-opening move and we will keep our eyes on the headlines for any evidence as to why the precious metal is tanking.
Present Price: $934.90/oz
Resistances: $936.79/oz, $938.49/oz, $940.54/oz, $942.58/oz, $945.82/oz
Supports: $934.23/oz, $932.70/oz, $931.33/oz, $929.63/oz, $927.76/oz
Psychological: $950/oz

Crude Dips Beneath our 3rd Tier Uptrend Line
Crude futures have slipped below our 3rd tier uptrend line after failing to test the psychological $70/bbl level. Crude is reacting to the disappointing CB consumer confidence data along with mixed earnings reports. A setback in consumer confidence dents the outlook for individual demand. Furthermore, a negative 3rd quarter outlook for U.S. Steel is a bit disconcerting for crude. A negative projection from U.S. Steel implies construction and automobile purchases may not recover as quickly as investors hope. This concept has an indirect impact on consumption of crude, placing a downward pressure on price. However, crude futures remain comfortably above our 1st and 2nd tier downtrend lines along with the psychological $65/bbl. Hence, crude has a few reliable cushions in place. The barriers to the upside become our 3rd tier uptrend line, July 27th highs, and the psychological $70/bbl. Meanwhile, investors should keep an eye on volume to see whether sell-side action picks up. If so, crude may not find support until our 2nd tier uptrend line.
Looking across the board, crude’s correlations reflect today’s pullback. In fact, the downturn in gold and the appreciation of the Dollar make crude’s losses seem relatively tame. Regardless of the broad market selloff, most up trends remain intact from last week’s buying frenzy. However, should the S&P’s pullback extend, crude would likely follow suit due to their positive correlation. It will be interesting to see if weekly inventories continue to decline, or begin an upwards trend towards par. A rise in crude inventories would likely place added downward pressure on price. Tomorrow’s durable goods orders data should have a noticeable impact on crude futures since automobile purchases are highlighted. The more automobiles there are on the road, the greater present and future demand for crude. Altogether, the uptrend remains intact until crude tests our 2nd tier uptrend and downtrend lines. Hence, we view today’s pullback as healthy behavior.
Present Price: $66.73/bbl
Resistances: $67.52/bbl, $67.99/bbl, $68.34/bbl, $68.90/bbl, $69.50/bbl
Supports: $66.79/bbl, $66.39/bbl, $65.79/bbl, $65.10/bbl, $64.55/bbl
Psychological: $70/bbl, $65/bbl

S&P Futures Dip on Mixed Earnings and Data
The S&P futures are finally cooling down, coming off yearly highs after receiving mixed earnings and economic data releases. The most disconcerting development today was the 2nd quarter earnings announcement from U.S. Steel. Profit continues to tumble and the Dow component provided a sour forecast for Q3. The decline in price and demand for steel shows infrastructure development and automobile manufacturing levels remain at discouraging levels, denting the optimism concerning the U.S. economic recovery. Economic data-wise, a disappointing CB consumer confidence number offset the encouraging improvement in home prices. Although we’ve received conflicting consumer confidence data, the rise in the HPI shows the housing sector is finally gaining its footing. Investors should keep in mind the recession began in housing, so a recovery in housing should help build a broad-based recovery.
Investors took the mixed headlines as an opportunity to cash in profits after last week’s incredible run. The 2nd quarter earnings season is faring better than expected as a whole, helping clarify present valuations and easy near-term investor anxiety. However, the highly psychological 1000 barrier is looming overhead. We believe 1000 could be more complicated than 900 due to its psychological significance. With earnings season beginning to fill out, investors will likely need more confirmations via economic data to send the S&P beyond 1000. Hence, immediate-term upward movements in the S&P futures could be limited. As a result, the S&P may settle into another trading range for the near-term. As for the downside, the S&P has July 23rd and 24th lows to fall back on along with our 1st and 2nd tier uptrend line. Therefore, momentum still resides in the bulls’ corner.
Correlation-wise, the S&P’s pullback is being confirmed across the board. We notice a broad appreciation of the Dollar along with slight gains in Treasuries. Speaking of Treasuries, investors will pay attention to how record bond auctions fare this week. Any failure in the auctions could place immediate downward pressure on the S&P futures, giving investors a great reason to sell. Additionally, investors should take note of the huge pullback in gold today. We haven’t seen any concrete evidence backing gold’s retreat, yet it does raise a red flag. However, gold is more correlated with the greenback than equities, so we’re not reading too far into the movement right now.
Despite the cautious sentiment beginning the week, investors are still optimistic about the prospects of a return to growth in a reasonable time frame. Therefore, although we do take note of the negative developments in the S&P’s correlations, we believe the S&P’s near-term uptrend has some muscle behind them.
Present Price: 970.75
Resistances: 972.75, 977, 981.50
Supports: 968.5, 963, 955.50, 950
Psychological: 1000, 950
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