EUR/USD Hits a Wall after Disappointing EZ INO Data
The EUR/USD has hit a wall and is consolidating with a downward slope after the Euro Zone’s industrial new orders data showed slight contraction while analysts were expecting a swing to growth (-0.2% vs. 1.9%). The Euro is also digesting the fact that French consumer spending came in higher than expected. However, we believe the EZ INO number is more prevalent since we’ve seen French CS flutter between growth and contraction. Hence, the EU continues to display a theme of disappointing data. Over the past week and a half investors have received discouraging data concerning EU economic sentiment, pricing, and now manufacturing. The economic data shows that although the peak of the crisis may be behind us, the economic return to growth could be a long, steep road.
Despite the recent negative data points the bulls continue to hold the line, preventing a protracted pullback. Near-term investor sentiment is still on the upswing with the confidence that the economic recovery will keep on trucking. The EUR/USD confirms investor confidence by trading comfortably above weighted medium-term downtrend lines and the psychological 1.40 level. Furthermore, there’s a dense trading range wielding an upward slope between June lows and highs. However, the immediate-term tells a different story. Investors are exercising caution after today’s disappointing data coupled with mixed earnings from the U.S. Though the majority of U.S. 2nd quarter earnings have been positive thus far, investors are digesting some questionable results from Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo. Additionally, corporations beating analyst bottom-line estimates come on declining revenue and strategic cost-cutting. As a result, there remains an uncertainty concerning the prospect of future growth.
We’ve tweaked our trend lines, and see a new immediate-term wedge between our 3rd tier uptrend and downtrend lines. If the EUR/USD should break below our 3rd tier uptrend line we could witness a pullback towards our 2nd tier uptrend and the 1.41 area. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD is trading well above the psychological 1.40 level, and has quite a few cushions between 1.40 and present price. As for the upside, the EUR/USD now has to deal with fresh July highs and then June highs. Therefore, there are a few speed bumps on the road ahead. An immediate-term fluctuation between our 3rd tier trend lines would not be surprising. As usual, the EUR/USD’s path is highly reliant on the S&P futures. Should the S&P break out of its own obstacles the EUR/USD would likely follow suit due to their positive correlation.
Present Price: 1.4190
Resistances: 1.4197, 1.4214, 1.4230, 1.4247, 1.4269
Supports: 1.4138, 1.4157, 1.4142, 1.4124, 1.4101
Psychological: 1.40, 1.45

GBP/USD Stabilizes Despite Disappointing CBI Data
The Cable is climbing back above our 2nd tier uptrend line despite disappointing CBI industrial new orders data. Today’s CBI data is a bit disconcerting because it counters the gradual improvement since March. In fact, today’s reading of -59 is worse than March’s -58. Present stabilization counters a pullback resulting from a bleak report from the IMF concerning the state of Britain’s budget balance amid spiraling injections of liquidity. Investors are also reacting positively to the BOE minutes released earlier showing the central bank currently has no intention of adding onto its $125 Billion QE program. Hence, the BOE could be thinking about the future by reigning in spending. On the other hand, the BOE also revealed it plans on increasing the reserve requirements of financials, denting future revenue. Taking all of this into account, the Cable is proving resilient to the downside, and investors are still encouraged about the concept of an economic recovery. Although the medium-term is filled with question marks, the immediate-term momentum remains in the bulls corner for now.
The GBP/USD is in the thick of June’s trading range, which we predicted could be a tough zone to break free of. The 1.65 psychological area proved to be a worthy adversary to the upside, though the uptrend lines are holding firm. The topside obstacles are clear: 1.65, July 20th highs, and our 3rd tier downtrend line. If the Cable can dart past these barriers a retest of July highs is likely. Britain will release retail and BBS mortgage approvals data tomorrow. We believe the mortgage approvals number could have a larger impact on the Cable than retail sales. Mortgage approvals are at an important technical juncture. Investors are expecting a slight increase from the last release, while a much higher/lower than expected number could result in a sizable appreciation/depreciation of the Pound. In addition to tomorrow data, the interaction of the S&P futures with 950 and yearly highs should have a strong influence on the path of the Dollar. Should the S&P breakout to the upside the GBP/USD would likely follow suit to its 3rd tier downtrend line.
As with the EUR/USD, the GBP/USD has an upward sloping near-term trend with hefty support to the downside. Therefore, near-term momentum is tilted towards the bulls’ corner for the time being. Looking at the downside, the Cable has our 2nd and 3rd tier uptrend lines and July 17th lows should sentiment turn sour. Hence, there are quite a few cushions on the bottom-end to weather a storm should it strike.
Present Price: 1.6402
Resistances: 1.6405, 1.6441, 1.6467, 1.6500, 1.6542
Supports: 1.6372, 1.6347, 1.6324, 1.6301, 1.6265
Psychological: 1.65

USD/JPY Balances on our 1st Tier Downtrend Line
The USD/JPY failed in its recent attempt to build positive momentum from our 1st tier uptrend line. The currency pair has since fallen back to our 1st tier downtrend line on declining volume. Though the currency pair is trading comfortably above July lows, investors are hesitant in making a larger, necessary commitment to the upside. Japan will release its trade balance late Wednesday and the data will monitored closely by investors. Analysts are expecting further improvement (0.51 trillion) from last month’s surprising 0.22 trillion surplus. However, should the trade balance come in below June’s release, the USD/JPY could be under some near-term selling pressure. Investors should keep in mind last month’s 0.22 trillion surplus was a vast improvement from Japan’s budget deficit since September 2008. Therefore, expecting an increase from 0.22 to 0.51 trillion may be a bit bold. Though we anticipate an improvement from 0.22 trillion, we believe the trade balance number may not live up to expectations. We will just have to wait and see.
Regardless of tomorrow’s trade balance data, the behavior of the S&P futures should have a greater near-term impact on the USD/JPY. If the S&P can manage to break free of 950 and 2009 highs, this could help the USD/JPY strengthen back above its 1st tier uptrend line. A recovery in the U.S. economy trumps Japan’s trade balance since this would imply an improvement in consumption and demand for Japanese exports. On the other hand, a large setback in Japan’s trade balance could strike overall investor confidence since it implies global demand and consumption may not be picking up as much as anticipated. Technically speaking, our 1st tier uptrend and 2nd tier downtrend lines serve as near-term barriers along with the psychological 95 area. As for the downside, the USD/JPY has our 1st tier downtrend line, previously July lows, and the highly psychological 90 level to fall back on.
Present Price: 93.72
Resistances: 93.82, 94.49, 94.99, 95.73, 96.33
Supports: 93.28, 92.90, 92.39, 91.75, 91.36
Psychological: 95, 90

Gold Bounces Back to $950/oz
Gold has popped back above $950/oz to our 1st tier downtrend line as the precious metal builds a new psychological base. However, we do notice some rising action to the downside for a couple hours yesterday, so investors should monitor volume over the next couple sessions to see where interest lies. While gold is tempted to pop higher towards June 10th highs and our 3rd tier downtrend line, investors are standing on the sideline as they monitor the S&P’s interaction with its own psychological 950 level. Gold and U.S. equities are positively correlated, so any immediate-term breakout past 950 and 2009 highs in the S&P’s could result in sizable gains in the precious metal. Near-term momentum is in favor of the uptrend even though the market as a whole is has experienced some hesitation from investors over the past 24 hours. We notice similar consolidation in both the EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Therefore, today’s session could be important in determining whether gold takes the next step to the upside, or opts for near-term downward consolidation. Gold has our 1st and 2nd tier uptrend and 1st tier downtrend lines to fall back on along with July 20 lows.
Present Price: $951.35/oz
Resistances: $952.67/oz, $954.57/oz, $958.05/oz, $960.58/oz, $962.80/oz
Supports: $949.39/oz, $947.92/oz, $946.02/oz, $944.11/oz, $941.58/oz
Psychological: $950/oz

Crude Futures Rally from Our 2nd Tier Uptrend Line
Crude futures are stepping up from our 2nd tier uptrend line on a boost of buy-side volume despite weekly inventories coming in 100k barrels heavier than analyst expectations. Regardless of missing analyst predictions, crude inventories continue to decline. As we stated in our previous analysis, crude has been neglected for the most part during the S&P’s huge rally coupled with a broad depreciation of the Dollar. Hence, investors could be making up for lost time with the S&P futures trading just below their fresh 2009 highs. Better than expected 2nd quarter earnings are aiding crude’s upward mobility since an improvement in corporate performance implies an increase in production, manufacturing, and consequently consumption of crude. However, the 30-day MEND ceasefire seems to be paying dividends with Eni SPA and Royal Dutch Shell taking actions which should increase production in Nigeria. Therefore, should stability in Nigeria continue, this could place a downward pressure on price due to the anticipated increase in supply.
Meanwhile, volume is picking up and bulls are taking interest in crude’s attempt to leave the psychological $65/bbl behind. Crude futures need clear July 8th highs again and our 2nd tier downtrend line. If crude can accomplish these two feats, we believe near-term gains could accelerate. That being said, should the S&P futures decide to break free of their psychological 950 level and 2009 highs, then we believe crude would be inclined to participate this time. On the other hand, a near-term downward consolidation in the S&P could result in a similar behavior in crude due to their positive correlation. Fortunately for the bulls, our near-term supports are relatively tight with the 2nd tier uptrend line holding steady.
Present Price: $65.51/bbl
Resistances: $65.79/bbl, $66.18/bbl, $66.79/bbl, $67.48/bbl, $68.25/bbl
Supports: $65.23/bbl, $64.85/bbl, $64.49/bbl, $64.19/bbl, $63.67/bbl
Psychological: $65/bbl, $60/bbl

S&P Futures Jog Around New 2009 Highs
The S&P futures have peaked through previous 2009 highs in a key technical development. Meanwhile, volume is climbing to the upside, and the futures are flirting with the idea of making a confirmation move. Today would be key timing for a confirmation, or the bulls may be discouraged with near-term downward sloping consolidation ensuing. Investors are showing moderate hesitation after Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo cast a shadow of doubt over the impressive 2nd quarter earnings season. Additionally, Britain and the EU each released disappointing industrial new orders data. Regardless, the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and gold are stabilizing and appear as if they could be readying themselves for another leg up. Furthermore, the 30 Year T-Bond futures are yielding a downward inclination. Hence, the correlations continue to create a supportive environment for a substantial breakout to the upside in the S&P futures. The futures are creating a new foundation in the meant-time which can help mitigate immediate-term losses.
All eyes were on Bernanke for a second day as Congress grilled the Fed Chairman. However, Bernanke didn’t reveal anything groundbreaking. On the other hand, we didn’t expect him to. Investors were hoping for guidance and plans regarding an ‘exit strategy’ from the massive injections of liquidity used to fight the economic crisis. The fear is that the spike in the money supply could result in rapid inflation down the road. While investors and analysts want an ‘exit strategy’, we believe the actions by the Fed to reduce the level of liquidity in the system will be fluid and flexible in their own right. The Fed will do what they think is appropriate at the time, testing different methods to see what the markets respond to. We are treading in unprecedented monetary waters, meaning the Federal Reserve will have to be creative and adaptive to deal with the unpredictable situation. We believe the Fed will delay any large action until they see concrete evidence of uncomfortable levels of inflation in economic data. Any action taken before this development could be viewed as premature. As far as the economy goes, Bernanke didn’t describe anything we didn’t know already. Unemployment is climbing and consumption decreasing while housing shows encouraging improvements.
Speaking of housing, the U.S. will release existing home sales along with unemployment claims tomorrow. Positive results from both of these data points could ignite a rally in the S&P futures. While uncertainty remains about the medium-term performance of the U.S. economy, 2nd quarter earnings have outperformed analyst expectations for the most part. Earnings are the immediate-term catalyst investors are watching, meaning current momentum resides in the bulls’ corner. We’re running short of near-term resistances to the upside, normally an encouraging sign for the immediate-term. As for the downside, the S&P futures have our 1st and 2nd tier uptrend lines as well as July 16 lows to fall back on should sentiment turn sour.
Present Price: 954.24
Resistances: 955.5
Supports: 953.25, 950, 946.75, 943.50, 939.75, 934.50
Psychological: 950
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