EUR/USD Breaks below its Neckline on Climbing Volume


The EUR/USD broke below our neckline yesterday, logging the selloff we anticipated. Yesterday’s move came on large volume, continuing the theme of considerable activity to the downside. So far this month we’ve seen rising volume to the downside on 6/4, 6/5, 6/10, and now 6/15. The heightened interest on the sell-side could indicate there is more room to go to the south. In addition to snapping the neckline, the EUR/USD closed beneath 5/28 lows, another negative technical indicator. While we could see an immediate-term recovery towards our 2nd tier downtrend line and uptrend lines, we likely won’t witness any sizeable, game-changing gains. The S&P futures also made a key technical pullback yesterday. Due to their positive correlation, the movement of the S&P further supports our negative outlook on the EUR/USD. It appears as if the next stop for the EUR/USD could be our 1st tier uptrend line and/or the 1.36 area. This would likely serve as the next point of consolidation should the currency pair decided to stabilize and turn around. As for the upside, the EUR/USD would need to fight back above our 2nd tier uptrend line and the psychological 1.40 level on large volume for us to alter our near-term outlook.

Meanwhile, the Euro continues to experience relative weakness across the board, emphasized by the deterioration of both the EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY. The weakness results from the comparatively spotty data from the EU during the recovery process. Additionally, investors could be showing the ECB has acted insufficiently in regards to their monetary policy in reaction to the economic crisis. Flight to the Dollar could continue as investors try to diversify and decrease their overall risk exposure. However, we do maintain our positive outlook for the medium-term.

The medium-term downtrend line formed through 12/18 lows, or our 1st tier downtrend line, is still far out of reach. As long as 1.35 in the EUR/USD and the 900 area in the S&P are intact, the currency pair is in pretty good shape technically for the longer-term. On the other hand, we have yet to see if the pullback we’re witnessing is healthy, or a reversal into the medium-term downtrend. Ultimately, the fate of the Dollar relies upon the outcome of the current economic stabilization taking place. If we are not witnessing a true recovery, then the Dollar would likely appreciate heavily once again. However, we would need to witness a large, broad-based contraction in economic data globally. Therefore, we maintain our negative near-term outlook and positive medium-term outlook on the EUR/USD trend-wise.

The EU will release key economic sentiment data along with its CPI number. The U.S. and Britain will release important economic data points of their own, so we expect another session of high volatility.

Present Price: 1.3856
Resistances: 1.3895, 1.3954, 1.4019, 1.4052, 1.4111
Supports: 1.3847, 1.3807, 1.3759, 1.3724, 1.3682.
Psychological: 1.40, 1.35

EUR/USD



GBP/USD Deflects Off our 3rd Tier Trend Lines

The Cable pulled back on large volume yesterday as the Dollar appreciated across the board. However, the GBP/USD’s losses were not technically significant as with the EUR/USD due to Britain’s relative strength economically. The Cable now appears to be following our 2nd tier downtrend line while trading comfortably above the psychological 1.60 level. Additionally, the GBP/USD is well above June lows whereas the EUR/USD closed beneath their respective June lows yesterday. The relative strength of the Pound is further exemplified by the overall outperformance of the GBP/JPY and underperformance of the EUR/GBP. Investors are rewarding the Pound for Britain’s strong showing in economic data while it seems that the BOE has taken the more appropriate measures to fight the crisis as compared to the Fed and ECB. Investors will get a better sense of how the British economy is faring in less than an hour upon the release of the nation’s year-over-year CPI and RPI data. Additionally, investors will digest important pricing data from both the EU and U.S. If the numbers signify deflation, we could witness further near-term strength in the Dollar.

Despite the relative outperformance of the Pound, the Cable is still facing some considerable downward pressure due to the currency pair’s positive correlation with U.S. equities. The S&P futures are indicating there may be further room to go to the downside. Investors are concerned that international governments will not continue to support America’s expanding burden of debt. Furthermore, U.S. equities may be overvalued due to their impressive run in the first half of 2009. The challenge for the Cable to the upside is presented in the form of our 2nd and 3rd tier downtrend lines. While we could see a bounce today in the face of oversold conditions, the Cable may be forced to participate in the near-term downtrend we’ve forecasted in the EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and S&P futures. Ultimately, as with other major Dollar pairs, the medium-term fate of the GBP/USD relies upon the ability of the global economy to follow through on its path to recovery. Any broad-scale pull back in the global economy, or a retraction into the problems we saw in 2008 would likely kick the Cable back into its medium-term downtrend. However, we have no reason to suspect this and the medium-term uptrend line remains intact.

Meanwhile, our 3rd tier uptrend line is playing an important role as far as support is concerned. If our 3rd tier doesn’t hold, we could witness a sharp near-term contraction towards our 2nd tier uptrend line and the psychological 1.60 level. The rising volume yesterday to the downside is certainly a cause for concern and could be foreboding of an oncoming pullback. As for the upside, the Cable will need to get above our 2nd and 3rd tier uptrend lines to have a chance at overcoming previous June highs. We maintain our negative outlook for the short-term in the GBP/USD trend-wise due to the negative pressures in the global market place.


Present Price: 1.6335
Resistances: 1.6371, 1.6412, 1.6498, 1.6574, 1.6620
Supports: 1.6315, 1.6263, 1.6210, 1.6141, 1.6080
Psychological: 1.65, 1.60


GBP/USD



USD/JPY Sags as Investors Flee to the Dollar


The USD/JPY is selling off from our 3rd tier downtrend line after the currency pair failed to climb past previous June highs. Encouragingly, the pullback comes on declining volume while lacking the conviction to the downside like that of the EUR/USD. We are not surprised by the USD/JPY’s current weakness, and the tango between the near-term uptrend and medium-term downtrend lives to see another day. While the USD/JPY has made three consecutive declining highs with multiple downtrend lines bearing down on price, the currency still has two strong uptrend lines to fall back on. Hence, even though the power of the downtrend outweighs that of the uptrend, there is little evidence showing another collapse in the USD/JPY is imminent. We could continue to see the currency pair trade within the range of our 1st tier uptrend line and 5th tier downtrend line as they slowly approach their respective inflection points.

Meanwhile, any further systemic weakness in the global economy should have a corresponding impact on the appreciation of the Dollar. The USD/JPY is reacting to yesterday’s data showing that central banks are slowing their purchases of U.S. paper. Therefore, we suspect the USD/JPY will exhibit a positive correlation with U.S. equities for the foreseeable futures since the fate of the Dollar relies upon the ability of the global economy to stabilize and recover from here. Further deterioration of the global economy could increase the likelihood of the world powers opting to replace the U.S. Dollar as the global standard for monetary pegs and transactions.

Altogether, we maintain our negative outlook trend-wise on the USD/JPY due to the precedence and strength of the downtrend. The currency pair has fallen below our 3rd tier uptrend line again. Keep an eye on our 2nd tier uptrend line. If this support doesn’t, hold we could see the pullback pick up speed. The USD/JPY is currently fighting to stay above April lows, and it is certainly plausible for the currency pair to hop back above our 3rd tier uptrend line should U.S. equities recover.

Present Price: 96.46
Resistances: 96.90, 97.45, 97.58, 98.66, 99.49.
Supports: 96.33, 95.82, 95.20, 94.45, 93.76
Psychological: 95, 100


USD/JPY



Crude Futures Climb with Confident Consumers



Crude futures are recovering from yesterday’s pullback which saw the futures testing the psychological $70/bbl level and our 2nd tier uptrend line. The futures are now battling with our 3rd tier uptrend line, which presently rests just below previous June highs. Crude is reacting positively to the better than expected economic sentiment data from the EU. Economic data from the EU has been coming in mixed over the past month and a half, including last week’s light showing from industrial production. The EU continues its mixed performance today by releasing an economic sentiment number the likes of which have not been seen since May 2006. As a result, the EUR/USD is experiencing some much needed relief, boosting crude since it is a Dollar-based commodity. A confident economy implies a confident consumer which could help boost production and consequently consumption of crude.

Investors are now awaiting the key economic data from the U.S., including Building Permits, PPI, Housing Starts, and Industrial Production. If today’s data coming from the U.S. also exceeds expectations, we may see new 2009 highs. The next foreseeable stop to the topside past 2009 highs would be the psychological $75/bbl. Although, this psychological level could prove to be a simple stepping stone in the path of crude’s ascent. However, we should note that all of crude’s positive correlations have a negative inclination right now due the near-term downward pressure developed over the past few trading sessions. Therefore, even though crude has a relative strength, gains could be restrained should the U.S. data miss expectations and result in a pullback in crude’s correlations. We believe crude’s relative strength comes from a few sources: Improvement in China’s economy, constrained production from OPEC, and a 900+ S&P. Hence, even if the S&P should falter in the near-term, the first two factors could keep crude futures at a comparatively reasonable level.

Present Price: $72.36/bbl
Resistances: $72.37/bbl, $72.98/bbl, $75/bbl
Supports: $71.56/bbl, $70.72/bbl, $69.65/bbl
Psychological: $75/bbl, $70/bbl, $65/bbl.


Crude



Gold Weakens with Equities


Gold continued to decline from its broken neckline yesterday with investors exiting equities and running towards the Dollar for cover. Gold continues to exercise its positive correlation with U.S. equities, and serves as a competent indicator for the S&P futures. Despite yesterday’s decline, losses were tempered as bulls came to the rescue at our critical 1st tier uptrend line. The 1st tier uptrend line is important since it originates from 2008 lows and touches several lows along the way, including 11/13/08, 4/20/09, and 5/04/09. Therefore, any contraction below our 1st tier uptrend line could result in a relatively quick retest of the highly psychological 900 level.

The current state of gold’s technicals represents the fragility of the global market right now. The S&P futures are flirting with the possibility of a large pullback, and gold could continue to lead the way as far as indicators are concerned. Therefore, investors should keep a close eye on gold whether or not they are invested in the precious metal. We maintain our near-term negative outlook on gold, which could turn into a medium-term outlook should the 1st tier uptrend line not hold.

Present Price: $935.85/oz
Resistances: $939.82/oz, $941.94/oz, $945.67/oz, $949.34/oz, $953.31/oz
Supports: $935.06/oz, $931.41/oz, $927.40/oz, $923.96/oz, $920.95/oz
Psychological: $950/oz, $900/oz


Gold




S&P Futures Move Sideways, Investors Await Next Week’s Data


The S&P futures did in fact break below our 1st tier uptrend line yesterday, proceeding to retest May highs and June lows in one swoop. Yesterday’s weak long-term purchases data sent up a red flag and only exacerbated investor fear that declining foreign interest in U.S. debt could compromise the economic recovery taking place due to higher governmental borrowing costs. Despite the size of the pullback compared to the sideways action as of late, the futures still manage to avoid a retest of 900. In fact, the S&P futures were edging up this morning after better than expected economic sentiment from the EU coupled with a higher than anticipated PPI number from Britain. However, the pre-market rally halted after the U.S. released disappointing PPI data of its own, raising the fear of deflation. Deflation indicates a slowing economy since producers must lower their prices to satisfy higher supply and declining demand, and consequently lower earnings for some U.S. corporations. On the bright side, housing starts and building permits came in better than anticipated. Although, the housing and building data remains at an uncharacteristically low level, essentially discounting any small progress made. The U.S. will release its capacity utilization rate and industrial production in less than half an hour to cap the busy day.

Even though the S&P is putting up a stabilization fight, we can’t forget we’ve seen technically significant declines from both gold and the EUR/USD. These two investment vehicles are positively correlated with U.S. equities, and their fundamental deterioration is discouraging for the bulls. The S&P futures have been stuck at a crossroads for a while due to the combination of bulls buying into a global economic recovery coupled with investors taking profits due to the perception of overvalued equities. It will be interesting to see if the S&P futures bump back into their narrow trading range to continue their sideways activity, or whether yesterday’s pullback signifies a new near-term downtrend. We believe there is still a downward force at work due to the recent correlative behavior and the fact that equities have made such an impressive run so far this year. In the meantime, the S&P has build up quite a few support bases and has the psychological 900 level to rely upon. Therefore, even if the downside does pick up momentum, 900 should provide a reliable backstop.

Present Price: 927.00
Resistances: 933.75, 939.50, 945.75, 952
Supports: 927, 918. 914, 906.75, 897.50
Psychological: 900, 950




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