Volume topped out yesterday as anticipated and the EUR/USD slipped down towards our 1.4117 support. The currency pair is bouncing back on Wednesday despite the EU unemployment rate coming in one basis point higher than expected at 9.2%. Our trend lines are reaching their inflection point right now, indicated we could see a bullish breakout today into the 1.43-1.44 range. The present relative strength of the Euro is supported by a rising EUR/GBP. However, yesterday the EUR/GBP registered significant losses from a technical standpoint. The EUR/GBP sank beneath December 2008 lows, a very bearish move. Therefore, even though we’re witnessing an intraday recovery in the currency pair, it appears the EUR/GBP’s downtrend has more room to go. Hence, even though we maintain our bullish outlook on the EUR/USD trend wise, it seems the currency pair may continue to post a relatively weak performance as compared to the GBP/USD should the Dollar depreciate further.
Regardless of the near-term peak, the EUR/USD remains in great shape. The currency pair continues its bull run with all foreseeable medium-term downtrend line pressures fading into the distance. Even though the EUR/USD’s uptrend has played out beautifully, the currency pair is approaching some near-term obstacles which could result in some consolidation. These obstacles include 12/29 and 12/18 highs. Therefore, the 1.43-1.47 area could prove to be a bit challenging in the near-term. While a wide 3% range, 1.43-1.47 gives you an idea of where the EUR/USD might bounce around. 1.43-1.44 could naturally serve as the 1st consolidation point with investors awaiting the results of the ECB meeting on Thursday. We won’t see too much data from the EU until then, giving all the more reason to anticipate an incoming period of consolidation. However, if the EUR/USD can manage to pop above 1.4432 then the currency pair may ignore 1.43 consolidation and accelerate near-term gains.
Meanwhile, economic data around the globe continues to improve. Investors are shrugging off the GM bankruptcy in what appears to be a buy on the news. While investors are anticipating the ECB to keep its benchmark rate at 1%, the central bank pulled a trick card last meeting by announcing the purchase of covered bonds. As a result, investors will be paying more attention to the ECB’s action and if inaction language concerning their alternative monetary policy actions. The EUR/USD should continue to benefit as long as the global economy recovers and investors exit the dollar from fear of inflation in the U.S. Therefore, it appears we are returning to pre-crisis norms of a weak dollar and pricey oil.
Fundamentally, we maintain our resistances of 1.4222, 1.4290, 1.4325, 1.4374, and 1.4432. To the downside, we hold our supports of 1.4187, 1.4117, 1.4078, 1.4024, and 1.3987. The 1.40 area serves as a psychological cushion with 1.45 acting as a psychological barrier. The EUR/USD is currently exchanging at 1.4216.

GBP/USD Stabilizes After Better Than Expected Construction PMI
The Cable pulled back on declining volume yesterday, although losses were negligible. The GBP/USD is already popping up Tuesday after British Construction PMI and Net Lending to Individuals both came in encouragingly above analyst expectations. The recovery in the British economy continues to outpace even optimistic expectations, giving the Pound relative strength. Though the EUR/USD is outperforming the GBP/USD on the present 4-hour bar, we believe the recent British economic data will help push the Pound higher over the remainder of the week.
Meanwhile, the S&P futures are breaking out to new yearly highs, adding fuel to the fire of the uptrend of both the Cable and the EUR/USD due to their positive correlation with U.S. equities. However, as with the EUR/USD, we notice an upcoming zone of technical resistance which may result in some near-term consolidation. For the Cable, the next obstacle becomes October 30 highs, making the psychological 1.65-1.66 zone a possible area of consolidation. The GBP/USD has made quite a run as of late, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see some bulls cash in profits.
We’re going to see some more important economic data surface from Britain over the next few days leading up to Thursday’s interest rate decision. With the EU pretty quiet until Thursday, we could see the GBP/USD exert higher comparative volatility for the time being. Investors will watch for continued confirmation of a recovery in British economic data along with good news from the U.S. economy. Despite our anticipation of approaching consolidation, we maintain our bullish outlook on the Cable trend wise due to the incredible progress made fundamentally over the past week. The GBP/USD has left behind our key 2nd tier downtrend, meaning there is quite a bit of room to work with to the upside.
Looking ahead to Wednesday, Britain will release their Halifax HPI and Services PMI data points along with key numbers from the U.S. If the data is better than expected all around, the GBP/USD may bypass consolidation and dart higher in optimism concerning a recovering global economy. If the Cable can climb above our 1.6679 resistance the currency pair could really take off. We maintain our bullish outlook on the GBP/USD due to the aforementioned analysis.
Fundamentally, we find resistances of 1.6462, 1.6522, 1.6587, 1.6679, and 1.6734. To the downside, we see supports of 1.6379, 1.6343 1.6307, 1.6233, and 1.6170. The 1.60 level acts as a psychological cushion with 1.65 serving as a psychological barrier. The GBP/USD is currently exchanging at 1.6440.

USD/JPY Consolidates With High Volatility Between our 2nd Tier Trend Lines
The USD/JPY is exhibiting some interesting consolidative volatility while bouncing between our 2nd tier uptrend and downtrend lines. It seems this pattern could continue until these two trend lines reach an inflection point, which may not be until Friday’s trading session. Meanwhile, the GBP/USD, and EUR/USD are encountering some technical obstacles, indicating slightly consolidative patterns until Thursday’s double-header ECB and BOE meetings. The USD/JPY remains encouragingly above March 19 lows and is slowly floating north. Therefore, the USD/JPY’s uptrend has a faint glimmer of hope. The uptrend may ultimately rely upon a continued rise in the S&P coupled with investors regaining confidence in the viability of the U.S. Dollar. However, despite the USD/JPY finding near-term support, we maintain our bearish outlook on the USD/JPY trend wise. We haven’t seen any game-changing, fundamental moves to the upside to swing the momentum. There are still 5 downtrend lines bearing down on price with the highly psychological 100 level hanging in the distance. However, the USD/JPY may begin to wake from its sideways action as our trend lines collide.
Fundamentally, we maintain resistances of 95.82, 96.33, 96.90, 97.45, and 97.98. To the downside, we hold our supports of 95.12, 94.43, 93.77, 93.11, and 92.65. The 100 level serves as a key psychological barrier with 95 acting as a psychological cushion. The USD/JPY is currently exchanging at 95.73.

Crude Oil Futures Consolidate Around $68/bbl as Bulls Lock-In Profits
Crude futures experienced consolidation yesterday as we anticipated. Volume continued its decline while the futures settled around the $68/bbl level. However, investors shouldn’t get too comfortable since economic data carries on today with the release of pending home sales at 10am EST. While signs of recovery in the housing market are desired, volume should be stronger on Wednesday with the U.S. releasing key non-manufacturing PMI and employment change data. Investors will also get weekly inventories on Wednesday. It will be interesting to see if the rapid decline in crude oil inventories carries through for a second week. Therefore, we wouldn’t be surprised to see continued consolidation in crude today back towards the range of our 2nd tier uptrend line as investors lock in profits ahead of Wednesday’s news.
Regardless of possible near-term weakness, crude’s uptrend is clearly alive and well. The S&P futures broke through May highs yesterday, a very bullish move. Meanwhile, both the GBP/USD and EUR/USD remain in their respective uptrends, all positive news for crude due to the positive correlations. The recovery of PMI data globally bodes well for the consumption of crude, and rising U.S. equities only fuel the rise of crude futures.
The crude futures are trading comfortably above our 2nd tier uptrend line while there haven’t been any fundamental pullbacks on high volume. We will have to see a game-changing setback or considerable consolidation to begin to question the sustainability of crude’s medium-term uptrend. Economic data will roll in throughout the week with the ECB and BOE meetings on Thursday, meaning volatility should remain at a heighted level for the time being. If the economic data comes in above analyst expectations we could see another near-term pop in crude towards the psychological $70/bbl level.
Fundamentally, we maintain our supports of $67.23/bbl, $66.78/bbl, $66.18/bbl, $65.49/bbl, and $63.45/bbl. To the topside we hold our resistances of $68.02/bbl, $68.41/bbl, and naturally $70/bbl. $65/bbl becomes a psychological cushion with $70/bbl serving as a psychological barrier. The crude futures are currently trading at $67.85/bbl.

Gold Finds Comfort in Our 2nd Tier Downtrend Line
Gold continued Monday’s pullback on declining volume has investors locked in profits from the precious metal’s nice run. Since volume fell with price, we don’t view yesterday’s selloff as significant and gold is presently finding support on our 1st tier downtrend line. The precious metal has outperformed as of late, putting on an impressive show and clearing the way for a breakout in the S&P futures due to their positive correlation. In fact, the S&P set new 2009 highs yesterday. It appears as if it is the S&P’s turn to lead way as investors look to make a statement by following through on Monday’s key fundamental step. Gold has a few challenging obstacles to overcome in the near-term, the most important being our 3rd tier downtrend line and the highly psychological $1000/oz level.
Gold will need a strong confirmation from the S&P and continued depreciation of the Dollar to have a chance of leaving $1000/oz behind. Until our 3rd tier downtrend line is breached, the possibility remains that gold could duck back into its medium-term downtrend line. However, this attempt to beat $1000/oz seems more promising than gold’s last try in February. Both the GBP/USD and EUR/USD made fundamental bull statements a while back and the global economic recovery is gaining steam. Furthermore, crude has been on a tear as investors worry about future inflation. Gold has traditionally served as a reliable inflationary hedge. Therefore, we maintain our bullish outlook trend-wise unless the precious metal should make a fundamentally significant move to the downside.
Fundamentally we find resistances of $978.11/oz, $980.56/oz, $983.25/oz, $985.33/oz and $987.29/oz. To the downside, we see supports of $975.81/oz, $972.34/oz, $970.35/oz, $967.81/oz, and $964.89/oz. Gold is currently trading at $977.30/oz.

S&P Futures Consolidate as Investors Await Pending Home Sales
The S&P futures are consolidating after Monday’s strong gains in reaction to the continual improvement in global economic data. The futures are puttering along. It seems they may experience a slight pullback towards our 2nd tier uptrend line as investors lock in profits. The S&P’s performance today will likely rely on the outcome of the pending home sales release due in roughly one hour. However, we wouldn’t be surprised to witness a relatively quiet trading session as investors wait for the wave of U.S. economic data on Wednesday followed by the ECB and BOE meetings on Thursday.
The S&P futures have made a clear statement in favor of the uptrend by blowing past May highs. Additionally, the futures are now trading comfortably above the psychological 900 level along with our two uptrend lines. Meanwhile the uptrends of the S&P’s positive correlations, GBP/USD, EUR/USD, gold, and crude, are in good shape. Therefore, there is little reason to alter our bullish outlook for the S&P futures trend-wise. If the remainder of this week’s economic data releases beat analyst expectations the S&P futures could receive another boost to the upside. As for today, keep a close eye on the S&P’s correlations. If the correlations bust through resistances, this could be a sign that the S&P futures will continue their ascent.
Fundamentally, we maintain resistances of 942.75 and 950. To the downside we hold our supports of 931, 924.75, 915.5, and 905.5. The S&P futures are currently trading at 938.00.
30 Year T-Bond Futures Bottom-Out Above May 28 Lows
The 30 Year T-Bond futures sold off sharply again yesterday, yet managed to bottom out just above May 28 lows. The 30 Year futures exercised their positive correlation with U.S. equities as the S&P futures busted out of May highs. Investors are still concerned about the possibility of rising treasury yields dampening the current economic recovery. U.S. home sales remain at discouraging levels, though we have seen positive signs in the housing market. Investors fear climbing mortgage rates could discourage cash/credit strapped buyers from stabilizing housing. In retrospect, mortgage rates are at historically attractive levels and investors shouldn’t be overly concerned, yet. As we mentioned in our previous posts, treasury yields are at a critical juncture, and there is the possibility of a reversal in yield coincided with a bottom in the 30 Year and 10 Year futures. However, we will need to see May 28 lows hold, with a climb above our 2nd tier and 3rd tier downtrend lines on substantial volume to consider a bottom. If May 28 lows don’t hold, we could see the downtrend pick up speed once again. Due to the lack of conviction to the upside, we maintain our bearish outlook trend wise on the 30 Year T-Bond futures.
Fundamentally, we find supports of 116.10, and 115.67. To the topside we see resistances hanging at 116.75, 117.20, 117.69, 118.36, and 118.83. The 30 Year T-Bond futures are currently trading at 116 24.0.

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