The Euro is depreciating against the Dollar as the EUR/USD’s volume dips. The currency pair’s impressive bull-run is cooling off below the highly psychological 1.40 level, and could get squeezed between our 2nd tier downtrend line and 1st/2nd tier uptrend lines. The relative weakness of the Euro is reflected in the rapid selloff in the EUR/GBP with investors favoring the Pound over the Euro. Although, since recent economic data from the EU hasn’t given investors much of a reason to balk, we view present losses as a symptom of overbought conditions. Therefore, we are witnessing a healthy consolidation unless the downturn should pick up speed with sizeable volume. However, we don’t believe this to be the case. We view the bull-trend as alive and well with the last concrete downtrend, our 1st tier, fading into the background. As for the immediate term, keep a close eye on our 1.3889 support. If this doesn’t hold we could see a solid near-term decline. As a result, our 2nd tier uptrend line should prove to be an important defense.
The EU will be relatively quiet on the economic news front, meaning the EUR/USD should reflect a sharp positive correlation with U.S. equities for the time being. Hence, should the S&P futures build off of yesterday’s strong showing, the EUR/USD could be incline to follow suit to the upside. Meanwhile, investors will be looking for a slight increase in the German Unemployment Change release tomorrow as manufacturers and exporters struggle with a stronger Euro and waning global consumption. We maintain our bullish outlook on the EUR/USD trend-wise with fundamentals working in the bulls’ favor.
Fundamentally, we find resistances of 1.3922, 1.3958, 1.3991, 1.4024, and 1.4060. To the downside, we see supports of 1.3889, 1.3847, 1.3807, and 1.3751. The 1.35 area serves as a psychological cushion with 1.40 acting as a psychological barrier. The EUR/USD is currently exchanging at 1.3911.

GBP/USD
The Cable continues its incredible run and is currently working to climb above our 2nd tier downtrend line and the psychological 1.60 level. Our 2nd tier downtrend line is a critical obstacle since it stretches back to July 2008 highs, forming our last foreseeable blockade for the medium-term. Hence, even though the Cable’s near-term gains have been impressive, we could witness even more exciting movements to the upside if the currency pair can clear the 2nd tier. Due to the significance of present levels, we wouldn’t be surprised to experience a little hesitation back around 1.60 as investors debate leaving the key resistance behind. We advise keeping a close eye on volume over the next couple sessions. A large up-bar backed by considerable volume could indicate a forthcoming breakout.
The Cable is riding high despite BBA Mortgage Approvals showing home purchases may not be picking up as quickly as investors hoped. Today’s BBA release reflects the same mixed message sent by yesterday’s Home Price Index release from the U.S. Therefore, the housing sector continues to be a sore thumb in both Britain and the U.S. Regardless, economic data from Britain has beat analyst expectations from almost every other economic standpoint over the last month. As a result, economic releases will have to disappoint for the next couple weeks for investors to change their optimistic attitude.
Investors are shrugging off the fact that Britain now has a 33% chance of losing its AAA debt rating. Hence, investors are sending a message that the U.S. is worse off concerning debt-exposure and monetary saturation induced by the massive injections of liquidity. As a result, we’re witnessing a broad-based devaluation of the dollar around the globe. The positive performances of both U.S. equities and Oil futures are only adding fuel to the fire with both the Cable and EUR/USD exercising their positive correlation with the S&P futures to the fullest extent. Investors will be keeping a close eye on economic releases over the next two sessions including Existing and New Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders, and weekly Unemployment Claims from the U.S. coupled with Britain’s CBI Realized Sales. We maintain our bullish outlook trend wise on the GBP/USD for the aforementioned reasons.
Fundamentally, we find resistances of 1.6062, 1.6129, 1.6233, 1.6307, and 1.6388. To the downside, we see supports of 1.5988, 1.5.5899, 1.5822, 1.5727, and 1.5662. 1.60 is becoming a psychological cushion with 1.65 acting as a psychological barrier. The GBP/USD is currently exchanging at 1.6032.

USD/JPY
The USD/JPY is rebounding nicely from our 2nd tier uptrend line and critical March 18 lows despite the tensions surrounding North Korea. Additionally, investors are brushing aside a much worse than expected Japanese Trade Balance coupled with a large downward revision in April’s release. Japan’s negative Trade Balance shows global consumption may not be recovering as quickly as investors are pricing in. Furthermore, exports to China could be slowing, indicating China’s economy may not be as strong as thought. An overall appreciated Yen is really taking its toll on demand for Japanese exports. However, before we read too far into the Trade Balance, we can’t forget Core Machinery Orders are rising at an encouraging pace. Therefore, Japan’s forward-looking economic performance is looking up. Japan will release Retail Sales later in Wednesday’s session, giving investors a better idea of the state of the nation’s economy.
Meanwhile, the USD/JPY remains lodged between our 2nd tier uptrend line and 1st tier downtrend lines. The pressure is still clearly applied to the downside with 5 downtrend lines and the critical 100 level bearing overhead. Every recent near-term pop has been accompanied by disappointing volume, showing the bulls lack conviction. The USD/JPY has neglected its positive correlation with U.S. equities as of late, preferring to participate in the broad depreciation of the Dollar. March 18 lows and our 2nd tier uptrend line continue to play a key defensive role. If these cushions don’t hold, we could see the downturn pick up speed towards our 1st tier uptrend line. The line of defense is running thin, meaning the Yen is on the cusp of a rapid appreciation against the Dollar. Therefore, a large near-term pop backed by sizeable volume is sorely needed to keep the weak near-term uptrend alive. We maintain our bearish outlook trend-wise due to the aforementioned reasons.
Fundamentally, we find resistances of 95.88, 96.33, 96.90, 97.32, and 97.98. To the downside, we see supports of 95.12, 94.51, 93.66, 92.75, and 92.07. The 100 level serves as a key psychological barrier with 95 acting as a psychological cushion. The USD/JPY is currently exchanging at 95.26.

Crude Oil
Crude futures continued their incredible run yesterday, setting new May highs on impressive volume as bulls ran with much better than expected consumer confidence data from the U.S. An encouraging sign is the rising volume we’ve seen as crude has blow through the 50s into the 60s. Investors are ignoring large U.S. inventory levels week in and week out while banking on a global economic recovery. The performance of crude is a forward looking indicator showing nations using economic stimulus packages to boost their economies will ignite the global consumption of energy. However, despite crude’s impressive bull-run, the futures are well off their 2008 high of $147/bbl. Therefore, investors seem to be normalizing the price of crude in what may have been an over-exaggerated selloff in reaction to the economic crisis.
Technically, it is difficult not to be bullish on crude futures with no near-term significant barriers in sight coupled with large upward movements backed by considerable volume. On the other hand, the overwhelming optimism surrounding crude could be a sign of overbought conditions. Is it possible crude has risen too far too quickly? Then again, we are not in normal times. The liquidity injections and quantitative easing taking place globally is stoking fears of inflation, implying rising CPI and PPI with oil leading the way. Therefore, although some near-term consolidation/pullback is possible, we maintain our bullish stance trend-wise until further notice.
The U.S. will release some key economic data over the next two sessions, including weekly crude oil inventories on Thursday. Investors expect inventories to continue their uptrend pattern, meaning we could see some downward pressure in the near-term. However, the performance of crude will ultimately depend on its positive correlation with U.S. equities. Therefore, if housing and durable goods data come in better than expected and the S&P rallies strongly, we would expect crude futures to follow suit. Keep an eye on volume, for if activity tails off this could be an indicator of a near-term pullback.
Fundamentally, we find supports of $62.42/bbl, $61.98/bbl, $61.40/bbl, and $60.78/bbl. To the topside we see resistances of $63.03/bbl, $63.45/bbl, and $64.00/bbl. $60/bbl becomes a psychological cushion with $65/bbl serving as a psychological barrier. The crude futures are currently trading at $62.91/bbl.

Gold
Gold is consolidating after Tuesday’s losses, balancing along the highly psychological $950/oz level. Meanwhile, our resistance and support levels are fairly as the S&P battles 900, meaning consolidation could continue for the near-term. Our 2nd and 3rd tier uptrend and downtrend lines are reaching an inflection point today, reflecting the relative importance of present levels. Gold continues to exhibit a positive correlation with U.S. equities. The recovery in global equity markets is sending oil sky high while the Dollar depreciates across the board, sparking fear of inflation. Gold has served as a reliable hedge against inflation in the past. As a result, investors are fleeing to the precious metal. Additionally, we wouldn’t be surprised if China is aggressively purchasing the precious metal to diversify its reserves.
While momentum is in favor of the uptrend, the downtrend still has several upcoming barriers preventing gold from a large breakout to the upside. To give you a better idea of the limitations to the upside trend-wise, create layers of downtrends beginning from March 2008 highs and connecting through February 2009 highs. If the precious metal can manage to rally above these potential downtrend lines, then we may witness an all-out bull trend. The fact that gold is stabilizing around $950/oz is a positive sign indicating bulls could be preparing to take the next step to the upside.
Fundamentally we find resistances of $948.96/oz, $950.87/oz, $953.40/oz, $955.66/oz, and $959.24/oz. To the downside, we see supports of $947.61/oz, $944.48/oz, $942.24/oz, $940.45/oz, and $938.41/oz. Gold is currently trading at $951.20/oz.

S&P
The S&P futures woke from their depressive state yesterday, charging back past 900 after the consumer confidence data came in much better than expected. Yesterday’s movement gives the bulls a sigh of relief since the S&P futures appeared to be slipping into a downtrend. Instead of heading south, the futures leapt from May 18 lows and are trading back above our 1st tier uptrend line. Therefore, the uptrend is back in play as investors await a flood of economic data beginning with Existing Home Sales this morning.
Meanwhile, crude investors continue to buy into the economic recovery, sending crude futures well past the psychological $60/bbl on significant volume despite of the S&P’s hesitation around 900. Additionally, the GBP/USD and EUR/USD are both on fire while gold balances above its psychological $950/oz. Therefore, the S&P’s correlations are indicating an uptrend in equities, and are awaiting a confirmation from the S&P futures before breaking through key resistances of their own.
The key for the S&P futures will be continuing yesterday’s momentum throughout the rest of the week on rising volume. If the futures can climb past previous monthly highs, the S&P may finally leave 900 in the rear-view mirror in its ascent towards 1000. All of the economic and political tensions don’t seem to faze the bulls. It seems the factor that would stall the S&P’s bull trend would be a clear contraction in broad economic indicators. Therefore, investors will be paying close attention to housing and durable goods data over the next two sessions.
Fundamentally, we find resistances of 910.75, 915.5, 919.25, 925.75, and 930.25. To the downside we see supports of 903.75, 898.25, 893.5, and 889. The S&P futures are currently trading at 910.00.
30 Year
The 30 Year T-Bond futures continue to experience considerable downward pressure as record treasury auctions prove to be difficult. Additionally, treasuries are exhibiting their normal negative correlation with equities. We’ve seen some incredible volume to the downside, particularly the selloff on May 21. However, the rapid decline in price of the 30 Year T-Bond futures is reasonable considering the incredible run they had during the height of the economic crisis. Unfortunately for the U.S., rising yields are adding pressure to a ballooning debt burden as interest payments climb.
While the 30 Year yields are climbing quickly, they still haven’t cleared their medium term downtrend. Therefore, although the 30 Year T-Bond futures appear stuck in a persistent downtrend, the downtrend of the 30 Year’s yield creates the possibility of the futures hitting a solid bottom shortly. However, whether the bottom proves to be temporary or lasting remains to be seen. Naturally, the 30 Year futures will turn towards the performance of U.S. equities. If the S&P futures can leave 900 in the past, then the 30 Year’s yield may find the fuel to break its downtrend, resulting in a continuation of the pull back in the 30 Year futures. We maintain our bearish stance trend-wise on the 30 Year futures for the time being with multiple downtrends bearing down on price. However, we will keep a close watch to see if the yield hits a brick wall, creating a bottom for the 30 Year futures.
Fundamentally, we find support of 118.0625 with resistances hanging at 118.375, 118.781, 119.281, 119.61, and 119.86. The 30 Year T-Bond futures are currently trading at 118 12.5.

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