S&P Daily Commentary 2.25.09
The S&P futures posted large gains on Tuesday after Bernanke’s speech encouraged investors the U.S. government will not need to nationalize Citigroup and Bank of America. Both stocks flew during the session, an encouraging sign considering the losses the financials have incurred so far this year. The large gains in the S&P show just how eager investors are to jump back into the water. After all, CB Consumer Confidence hit an all-time low and house prices are plummeting, yet Bernanke’s psychological speech shot the S&P up over 4%. However, yesterday’s gains came on moderate volume, and the S&P futures failed to get above our previous 773.5 top-end resistance. Not to mention, The S&P futures still have to face the psychological 800 level and our 3rd tier downtrend line. Furthermore, considering the move on Tuesday was highly psychological, harsh economic data could bring the bulls back to reality. As a result, we have little reason to change our negative stance on the S&P futures, and will need convincing clarification fundamentally. Investors will get a dose of economic data on Wednesday with the U.S. releasing Existing Home Sales data and Crude Oil Inventories. Since the economic downturn began in the housing market, investors will be keeping a close eye on today’s release. Crude Oil popped above our near-term downtrend line, yet is currently wrestling with the psychological $40/bbl level. Additionally, the 30 Year futures experienced profit taking yesterday, but nothing we’d consider significant. Gold sold off sharply, but is still above our 1st tier uptrend line. Therefore, although the correlations all behaved properly in Tuesday’s trading session, none of them made any trend changing moves. Hence, the S&P futures will need considerable follow through to convince investors a bottom has been put in place. If the futures should fall notably below 2008 lows, then we anticipate a brisk selloff. Fundamentally, we maintain our resistance of 774 with fresh 2nd tier and top-end hanging at 782 and 789.75, respectively. To the downside, we find support of 766.25, with 2nd tier and bottom-end supports resting at 760.25 and 754.25, respectively. The S&P futures are currently trading at 770.00.