Technical analysis: US Ten Year Note Future
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US TNote Future – Dec 2008
Tue, Sep 30 2008, 07:59 GMT
by Nicole Elliott
Comment: Overnight interbank US dollars tentatively offered at 8.00% today, when the Fed Funds target is 2.00%, so that the gulf between hope and reality has rarely been this wide. This explains the attraction of two-year TNotes, but more interestingly thirty-year have also kept pace, now yielding close to a record low of 3.90%. Benchmark ten-year yields look set to re-test the pivotal 3.25% yield and the spread of Bunds over US Treasuries should narrow. After that the question will be how close to the October 1946 all-time low yield of 1.82% do we get. Note that ten-year JGB’s yielded 8.00% when the Nikkei topped out in January 1990, yields dropping to 0.75% nine years later. This December futures contract should move up to re-test 119.00/119.16, eventually the all-time high at 121.26. Note that open interest is roughly half of last year’s peak suggesting a lot less speculation.
Strategy: Buy at 116.00, adding to 115.00; stop below 114.00. Add to longs on a daily close above 117.04 for 118.00 where some hesitation is likely, then 119.12 and on to 121.00/121.26.
Published on Tue, Sep 30 2008, 08:01 GMT
Archive
- US TNote Future – Sep 2009
Published On Tue, Jun 30 2009, 08:00 GMT - US TNote Future – Sep 2009
Published On Tue, Jun 23 2009, 09:08 GMT - US TNote Future – Sep 2009
Published On Tue, Jun 16 2009, 08:17 GMT - US TNote Future – Sep 2009
Published On Tue, Jun 9 2009, 07:54 GMT - US TNote Future – Sep 2009
Published On Tue, Jun 2 2009, 08:52 GMT
Mizuho Corporate Bank
| 1-3-3, Marunouchi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8210
http://www.mizuho-cb.co.uk | Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk
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