http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2009-11-19.htmlComment: For over two years now investors and the money market have been wearing rose-tinted spectacles, anticipating economic recovery by the summer, eagerly spotting more and more swallows. For this reason red and green contract months have had a tendency to rally as time marches on, and hopes are dashed. At the moment we see no reason to change this view and shall allow for rates to stay ultra-low for a very long time. (Investors ought to look at the chart of the front month EuroyenThu, 19 Nov 2009 13:11:20 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2009-11-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2009-06-03.htmlComment: The long term trend since 2002 has been to higher prices, admittedly a very gentle uptrend and nothing like the massive gyrations of the mid-1990’s. Last year’s clear-out takes the shape of an A, B, C-type correction which retraced half the previous gains, bouncing neatly from trendline support with a ‘double bottom’. The front month contract is currently testing pivotal resistance between 137.00 and 154.00 cents per pound. Weekly closes above both of these levels should see bullishWed, 03 Jun 2009 12:53:43 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2009-06-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2009-04-22.v02.htmlComment: Front month futures have been forming a base since October and are now set for a decent rally. Daily and weekly moving averages confirm this and last week’s close above 1050 completes a small ‘double/triple’ bottom. Interestingly, this formed against the 800/865 area, a level that had been resistance for many years up until 2008 and is one standard deviation from the mean since 1992. This week’s tiny pullback has sorted out the overbought situation, while Bean Oil and Meal charts haveWed, 22 Apr 2009 10:40:54 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2009-04-22.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2009-04-22.htmlComment: A lot bouncier than it’s name might suggest, rallying back up to October’s highs along with LME 3-month Copper and Zinc (whose chart patterns are very similar to this one). This year’s rally underlines how very important ultra-long term support around the $800 mark is. The daily Ichimoku ‘cloud’ was broken some time ago confirming the start of a new bull trend, though a very large weekly ‘cloud’ currently lies above current prices and between $1600 and $2150. Allow for someWed, 22 Apr 2009 08:37:49 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2009-04-22.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2008-08-12.htmlComment : One by one bubbles are bursting and now it’s time for the commodities one to go pop. Novices should have learnt by now that this is a two-way street and that reversals are often sudden and brutal. Chicago Board of Trade Wheat futures, front month contracts, have formed a very large ‘head-and-shoulders’ top and are precariously poised at the ‘neckline’. If the collapse from the record high at 1334.50 cents per bushel were not enough, another clear-out is on the way. Considering theTue, 12 Aug 2008 10:49:40 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2008-08-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2008-03-13.v03.htmlComment: A major topping pattern developed at 81.00, what had been our upside target, and now a new long term trend to lower prices has started in earnest. A weekly close below 74.00, and/or a sustained break below 72.00, complete this massive complex ‘triple top’ that took the whole of last year to build. The Yen is oversold but then downside pressure is stronger than it has been in a long time. Expect a collapse to 68.00/69.00 where some consolidation is likely, then on down to 67.00 andThu, 13 Mar 2008 15:09:24 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2008-03-13.v03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2008-03-13.v02.htmlComment: The ‘neckline’ of the very powerful ‘head-and-shoulders’ top, plus the Ichimoku ‘cloud’, stopped January/February’s corrective bounce very neatly. A very large ‘shooting star/spike high’ at 109.60 marks a new interim high and prices are sliding quickly. Downside pressure should increase significantly on a sustained break below the psychological level at 100.00. The measured target remains at 90.00/92.00 and a final leg down to 85.00 cannot be ruled out. Strategy: Sell at 101.60,Thu, 13 Mar 2008 15:05:41 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2008-03-13.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2008-03-13.htmlComment: Some got excited in January because this currency pair was trading over one standard deviation above the mean of the last seven years. One really has to be a die-hard fan to care about a 1.40% move above the band. Anyway, yet again it formed a ‘spike high’ on the monthly candle, something the Swedish krona is prone to with ever-diminishing success as the highs are getting lower. Next it is due to retreat back into its box and edge towards the mean at 9.2150. Then more random movesThu, 13 Mar 2008 10:38:00 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2008-03-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2008-02-26.htmlComment : The UK yield curve is steeper than it usually is, three-month TBills yielding just 4.40% (despite Base Rate at 5.25%), two-year Gilts 4.32% and tens 4.72%. The 4.00% area has become increasingly pivotal for Consols and War Loan as well as the two-year benchmark shown in the chart above. This is a function of a twentieth century perspective; looking at the period between 1750 and 1950 Consols traded between 2.50% and 5.50% nearly all of the time, around a mean at 4.00%. We feel it isTue, 26 Feb 2008 13:06:37 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2008-02-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-12-14.htmlComment : Still looking very top heavy in what we see as a potential, massive, ‘head-and-shoulders’ top. This very big formation, which has taken all year to build, is also at the level of the 1998 high and ends the rally that started in September 2000. If not in December then early next year a monthly close below 227.00, or a weekly one below 220.00, would complete the pattern. We would then allow for an extremely sharp drop over the next three months to the psychological level of 200.00 andFri, 14 Dec 2007 11:51:05 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-12-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-12-11.htmlComment: A fabulous long term Technical picture with the Singapore dollar expected to gain against the Korean won for much of next year, and maybe longer. From January 2005 to September 2007 this currency pair has formed a massive inverted ‘head-and-shoulders’/‘quadruple bottom’ just under the psychological level of 600.00. This is also the weakest the dollar has been against the won since the 1997/1998 Asia crisis. Last month’s break through the ‘neckline’ suggests we shall now hold aboveTue, 11 Dec 2007 12:33:27 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-12-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-11-09.htmlComment: This week the Swiss franc dipped to 1.1258, just below the low of December 2004. Despite the US dollar being very oversold, by year-end we expect a test of the all-time low of 1.1100 set in April 1995. Since the summer at-the-money implied volatility back up to 8.50/9.50% from a record low at 5.00% and is expected to squeeze higher still as and when we set new records. Seeing as the Canadian dollar has already done so, this pair could also drop through parity. Strategy: Sell on aFri, 09 Nov 2007 11:51:18 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-11-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-11-07.htmlComment: In retrospect the massive collapse from July’s high was the best, if scariest, buying opportunity in months and months. Having reached our medium term target at 0.9000 the Australian dollar has lost none of its appeal, nor has bullish momentum been dented. October’s monthly close above 0.9200 should increase this further and now that the Canadian dollar has gone through par against its US counterpart, there may be an element of this one doing so too to keep up with the Joneses. WeWed, 07 Nov 2007 14:43:25 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-11-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-09-13.v03.htmlComment: Regaining its composure after collapsing ahead of our long term target at 120.00. Price action since mid-August suggests that we should prepare for a squeeze higher any moment now. The longer term picture is a lot more complex though, and we are currently keeping a very open mind as to where we go next. Not only is the trend to Yen weakness against other currencies very mature, but a 15 Yen collapse in just six weeks should act as a wake-up call. On the other hand this type of priceThu, 13 Sep 2007 14:27:57 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-09-13.v03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-09-13.v02.htmlComment: The sudden sell-off ahead of the psychological 2.5000 area suggests we shall hold below here for another month or two, maybe more. Price moves will probably be random and messy, holding very roughly in a band between 2.3500 and 2.4700. This is seen as consolidation in a slow and gentle trend of Sterling appreciation versus the Swiss franc. Only a weekly close above 2.5000 signals the start of the final push higher towards long term resistance at 2.5500. A sustained break aboveThu, 13 Sep 2007 14:18:28 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-09-13.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-09-13.htmlComment: The rally ahead of key support around 2.3000, a level it has held above for most of the last nine years, was three times as big as anything we had allowed for and it very much out of character for this currency pair. Price action over the last three weeks is a little more ‘normal’ suggesting a very large clear-out in the Australian dollar has taken place. Funnily enough none of the above has altered the long term view where we shall allow for another two months or so of cautiousThu, 13 Sep 2007 14:13:23 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-09-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-09-11.v04.htmlComment: August’s collapse has been very much bigger than we had allowed for and forces us to adjust our view. This suggests the New Zealand dollar will hold below 0.7550 for several months as positions are re-built and the currency regains its composure. Price swings should decrease in size, sending one-month at-the-money implied volatility back down to 12.0%-13.0%. Hopefully retracement support and the Ichimoku ‘cloud’ will keep kiwi above 0.6800 this month, allowing it to creep up toTue, 11 Sep 2007 14:13:01 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-09-11.v04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-09-11.v03.htmlComment: The massive collapse from July’s high at 0.8871 is, believe it or not, still within ‘normal’ retracement parameters. Luckily the monthly close was well above the key 0.8000 level, so another upside push later this year is still our favoured view. Over the next month or two we shall allow for consolidation at current levels, with a series of random and messy price swings. Dips should now hold above 0.8000, and rallies probably stall around 0.8600. A weekly close above 0.8800 should setTue, 11 Sep 2007 11:22:45 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-09-11.v03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-09-11.v02.htmlComment: Having collapsed ahead of our long term target at 260.00 we warn that this cross may have already found an important interim top. The massive price swings of Q1 are likely to be repeated this quarter, potentially forming a ‘head-and-shoulders’ top. We urge traders and investors to adopt a flexible attitude and be ready to change plans as and when necessary. At the moment we have pencilled in a move higher in Q4 to 275.00 but a sustained break below 220.00 would complete an importantTue, 11 Sep 2007 09:07:51 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-09-11.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-09-11.htmlComment: Classic textbook stuff as we drop towards our medium term target and critical support at 7.7500/7.7000. Surprisingly the Euro is not especially oversold against the Norwegian krone and momentum is decidedly bearish. Depending on whether this is maintained, an overshoot to 7.6000 and maybe more is a very real possibility. Strategy: Sell at 7.8600/7.8800; stop above 8.0000. Add to shorts on a weekly close below 7.8500 and again on one below 7.7500 for 7.7000/7.6000.Tue, 11 Sep 2007 08:49:01 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-09-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-08-31.htmlComment: Hard to believe but it’s over a year since the Swiss franc moved into a broad trading band, two standard deviations around a mean at 1.2270. Despite August’s dip below 1.2000 the currency pair remains trapped, but perhaps not for much longer. A sustained break lower, which we have been patiently waiting for, should send at-the-money implied volatility back up to 8.50%, maybe 10.00%. Downside pressure increases if we hold below 1.2250. Our long term downside target remains at theFri, 31 Aug 2007 08:39:23 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-08-31.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-08-29.v02.htmlComment: Record open interest at June’s expiry and record volume in the futures contract for the week ending the 29th July is rather surprising considering this currency pair has gone pretty much nowhere over the last three months. There is still a small chance of a squeeze up to 1.0900/1.1000, something that is seen as an excellent selling opportunity. Our very long term target remains at parity, something Torontonians have not seen since the mid-1970’s. Strategy: Trade the range betweenWed, 29 Aug 2007 15:39:34 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-08-29.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-08-29.htmlComment: The Singapore dollar has been consolidating between 1.5000 and 1.5450 as expected. Weekly moves have recently become sharper and more sudden, suggesting the currency is looking for direction. Trade the range but we remind that a very cautious rally towards 1.5700 is still possible. Then we shall be watching for an interim top followed by a drop back down to 1.5100/1.5000 and then the 1.4000 long term, last seen in 1997. A weekly close below 1.5100 would force us to adjust, starting anWed, 29 Aug 2007 09:49:37 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-08-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-08-09.v02.htmlComment: Since January 2006 the Polish zloty has held above 273.00 to the Euro, one standard deviation from the mean of the last eight years, but is unable to bounce strongly from here as we had predicted. Needless to say one-month at-the-money implied volatility has collapsed to a record low at 5.40%. The minute range of the last four months cannot last forever. Over the next three months we shall allow for more random moves between 3.7400 and 4.0000, with prices probably holding below 3.9500Thu, 09 Aug 2007 11:28:33 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-08-09.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-08-09.htmlComment: The Hungarian forint has been surprisingly steady against the Euro for the last eight years, in a 5.0% band either side of the mean at 253.00. Weakness in 2006 followed by a reversal in fortunes later that year, are bigger moves than usually seen. Price action so far this year is seen as a massive ‘double bottom’ and possibly a ‘triangle’ too. Long term moving averages have turned positive and should set off a rally later this year. A weekly close above 255.00 should add enoughThu, 09 Aug 2007 11:25:15 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-08-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-08-03.htmlComment: Very complex as prices continue to cling to the 3.7400 area, one standard deviation from the mean of the last eight years, but are unable to bounce from here as we had predicted. Over the next three months we shall allow for more random moves between 3.7400 and 4.0000. However, the longer we hold below 4.0000 the greater the chance of a dip lower. Something similar but less dramatic as what happened in 2001, with a sustained move below 3.5000 unlikely. Then back above 3.7400 threeFri, 03 Aug 2007 08:30:51 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-08-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-07-30.htmlComment: Nudging briefly to a new all-time high at 1.6687, just higher then June’s ‘spike high’, we have ended the week with a ‘bearish engulfing’ candle. Following three upside pushes in what is seen as a ‘broadening top’ this will hopefully mark an important medium term top. It had become overbought and a weekly close below 1.6400 would add weight to our view. Our medium term target remains at 1.6200, then 1.5900. Strategy: Sell at 1.6450, adding to 1.6515; stop above 1.6700. Add to shortsMon, 30 Jul 2007 13:46:32 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-07-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-07-19.v02.htmlComment: Having reached our medium term target at 0.8800, what next? Amid generalised US dollar weakness several currencies have met out first, conservative, forecasts. We shall now take a more cautious approach while still allowing for another bout of US dollar selling later this year. However, because so few had predicted moves this size, and so many have been and still are bullish on the greenback, the chance of a frenzied final move is high. A third option also exists: that the AmericanThu, 19 Jul 2007 13:54:19 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-07-19.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-07-19.htmlComment: Twelve big figures higher since mid-March, and a staggering performance over the last twelve months, means the New Zealand dollar has comfortably exceeded our medium term target at 0.7800. Having been consistently overbought since June worrying about the RSI is pointless, and one-month at-the-money implied volatility remains relatively subdued. We favour a bout of consolidation, here and in a series of other currencies, but at the moment Kiwi has no signs of instability. Drops toThu, 19 Jul 2007 13:51:04 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-07-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-07-18.htmlComment: After last year’s fiasco the Iceland crown has been this year’s best performer, up 13% against the US dollar outpacing Aussie, Kiwi and Sterling. EUR/ISK dipped to a new recent low today and is testing pivotal support at 82.00/81.80. Potential hesitation here, of course, but long term all rallies towards 84.25, and so long as we hold below 86.45, are seen as good selling opportunities for an eventual drop lower. This should allow Iceland’s crown to strengthen to 76.50 to the Euro.Wed, 18 Jul 2007 16:00:54 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-07-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-07-16.htmlComment: Last week’s close was lower than that of January 2005, which in turn had been the lowest since August 1992, just above the all-time low of 78.43. Precious few chart levels lie between here and current prices. Whichever way you look at it the US dollar is at historically extremely weak levels. We continue to feel there is a very real chance of record-breaking moves, here and of course in a whole raft of currencies. As 57.6% of the value of the index is the Euro (13.6% Yen, 11.9%Mon, 16 Jul 2007 13:07:30 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-07-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-07-10.v03.htmlComment : The collapse in Q2 2007 has taken us completely by surprise and we have had to review our outlook very considerably. The cross has held above 1.4100 so far this month in what is seen as an unstable attempt at forming a base. More important very long term support lies between 1.3900 and 1.3500, so allow for a series of cautious downside probes over the next month or two. This is seen as an attempt at forming an important long term base, a process that is likely to be very lengthy.Tue, 10 Jul 2007 10:20:03 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-07-10.v03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-07-10.v02.htmlComment : A truly stunning performance since mid-March, up a total of almost 18 big figures and 15%. Yet it has been just outpaced by the New Zealand and Canadian dollars plus the Brazilian real against the yen. It is overbought and bullish momentum has eased from terribly high levels. Perhaps a little correction and consolidation are due next, with dips seen as buying opportunities for a final squeeze higher. Later this year we shall continue to allow for the rather terrifying prospect of anTue, 10 Jul 2007 10:15:48 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-07-10.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-07-10.htmlComment : The New Zealand dollar has been consolidating against its Canadian counterpart under 0.8400 so far this year, as expected. May’s break below January/February/March’s lows has probably cleaned out the die-hards, so positions will need re-building. Over the next month or so we favour yet more work under 0.8350, and probably no lower than 0.8000. Further out we are currently pencilling in very cautious upside probes to 0.8600 (one standard deviation from the mean of the last 23 years),Tue, 10 Jul 2007 10:13:21 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-07-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-07-05.v02.htmlComment: This currency pair is struggling with January’s high at 2.4750. However, this time it is not grotesquely overbought and the corrective move lower has been fairly contained. Therefore we do not expect a dramatic collapse as we saw in February. At the moment we favour a push up to the psychological 2.5000 area, so dips to 2.4000 are seen as small buying opportunities. A sustained break above 2.5500/2.5650 is considered unlikely, but if enough momentum builds we might just get anThu, 05 Jul 2007 15:02:01 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-07-05.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-07-05.htmlComment: As we had thought the dip below 28.000 turned out to be some sort of ‘extension’, and the weekly close above 28.500 completes a complex ‘rounded bottom’ type formation. This is not necessarily ‘a bad thing’ as the Czech koruna was at its strongest ever and worth almost 25% than at its weakest point. Over the next three months we favour a slow rally to 29.500/29.650 and probably 30.000 further out. A break below 28.250 would seriously postpone this move, in which case we would allowThu, 05 Jul 2007 14:05:17 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-07-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-07-04.htmlComment: June’s short squeeze took this cross a bit higher than where it usually tops and to its most overbought since August 1998. The Swedish krona, like Sterling, has been trading as a ‘quasi-Euro’ for years. Since January 2001 it has held tightly around the mean at 9.2000. One standard deviation from here is 9.0485 and 9.3635, therefore this pair should hold between these two levels most but not all of the time. Since mid-June the cross has dropped quickly and we are now trading just belowWed, 04 Jul 2007 11:03:15 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-07-04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-06-28.htmlComment: Picking up the pace a bit after a very slow start earlier this year. The break below the psychological and pivotal level at 8.0000, courtesy of a hawkish Norges Bank, has added considerably to bearish momentum. A monthly close below 8.0000 is needed to confirm such an important break and should see the Euro retreat all the way down to critical support at 7.7500/7.7000 medium term and possibly all the way down to 7.2500 long term. Strategy: Sell at 7.9500; stop above 8.0500. Add toThu, 28 Jun 2007 10:29:47 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-06-28.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-06-26.htmlComment: Once again this currency pair is not going according to plan and is approaching key support around 2.3000, a level it has held above for most of the last nine years. We shall allow for considerable hesitation at this point but with such a large top-heavy pattern on the chart there is a very real risk of a considerable move lower. This would make sense were Cable to hesitate at $2.0000 but the Australian dollar sail higher as it is not hindered by quite such an obvious exchange rate.Tue, 26 Jun 2007 14:30:53 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-06-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-06-21.v02.htmlComment: After trading sideways around 102.00 for 17 months, this pair has definitely shifted up a gear or three! The tight ‘channel’ has forced prices inexorably higher to a level not seen since November 1991. Needless to say it has been overbought for a month but bullish momentum is stronger than it has been since 1990. We continue to hold our long term target at 120.00, but be warn that the ‘train track’ price action is unlikely to continue for much longer. Note that the 1990 high at 137.00Thu, 21 Jun 2007 14:26:57 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-special/2007-06-21.v02.html