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Technical Analysis Special
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CBT Wheat
Tue, Aug 12 2008, 10:49 GMT
by Nicole Elliott
Comment: One by one bubbles are bursting and now it’s time for the commodities one to go pop. Novices should have learnt by now that this is a two-way street and that reversals are often sudden and brutal. Chicago Board of Trade Wheat futures, front month contracts, have formed a very large ‘head-and-shoulders’ top and are precariously poised at the ‘neckline’. If the collapse from the record high at 1334.50 cents per bushel were not enough, another clear-out is on the way. Considering the price declines so far have occurred while the US dollar has strengthened, the extent of wealth destruction is truly astounding. Prices have dipped below a very large Ichimoku ‘cloud’, and if the now hold below 830 bearish pressure should increase significantly. Our downside targets are 600 short term and 550/525 medium term. These are conservative estimates because a drop to 340 long term (the mean price since 1973 excluding the nonsense of the last twelve months) is also a possibility.
A weekly close above 950 forces us to review.
Published on Tue, Aug 12 2008, 10:51 GMT
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Published On Tue, Aug 12 2008, 10:49 GMT
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