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Technical analysis: Short Sterling

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Short Sterling – March 2009

Wed, Oct 22 2008, 11:19 GMT
by Nicole Elliott

Mizuho Corporate Bank


Comment: The authorities, asleep at the wheel for over a year, are eventually coming round to the idea that the patient needs help. Last night Bank of England Governor King said, ‘not since the beginning of the First World War has our banking system been so close to collapse. We are far from the end of the road back to stability’. True, but hardly the confidence-booster needed now. With friends like these…No wonder this futures contract gapped higher this morning, at its most overbought ever, and open interest in all contracts is lower than anything since February 2006. Some contract months are trading close to their most expensive ever. A 300 basis point move since June is more than most can cope with, yet three-month Libor is offered at 6.03% this morning. Totally chaotic conditions still, although some money is moving around the system.

Strategy: Stand aside if possible and use the Gilt market for any savings. For the very daring: attempt shorts at 96.370; stop above 96.550. Cover between 95.500 and 95.200.


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Mizuho Corporate Bank  | 1-3-3, Marunouchi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8210
http://www.mizuho-cb.co.uk | Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk

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