http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-11-20.htmlComment: Eurodollar futures have taken on board the new reality – that ultra-low interest rates are likely to be with us for a very long time – even front Dec rallying for six consecutive weeks despite trading perilously close to 100.00. Front Sep and red Dec still have plenty of room to move higher, and TNote yields should drop as investors are forced out along the yield curve. Caution is warranted as year-end pressures might emerge, or more likely just a dose of the jitters. Strategy:Fri, 20 Nov 2009 09:02:54 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-11-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-11-13.htmlComment: Front month Eurodollars and five-year TNotes have got the message: interest rates are likely to stay low for a very long time. Very low, so that we witness a one-off shift lower in the whole of the yield curves of the major currencies – not just in Japan. This futures contract has reached our upside target but as bullish momentum is very steady allow for an extension to 99.725. Front June and September contracts have a lot more upside potential. Remember though that as we approachFri, 13 Nov 2009 09:25:38 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-11-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-11-06.htmlComment: Investors appear to be as happy now with five-year TNotes as they are with two’s, so benchmark yields look set to test the pivotal 2.25% level. Front Eurodollar and Fed Funds futures have again inched up to new contract highs though the European cash market is as dead as a dodo. Technically this contract has broken above the top of a ‘triangle’ at the apex of a very large ‘wedge’, moving averages and the Ichimoku ‘cloud’ are still very much in bullish mode. It ought to follow-throughFri, 06 Nov 2009 09:08:05 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-11-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-10-30.htmlComment: Money market futures remain well bid and US 2-year TNotes are getting used to the idea that they yield less than 1.00% (as do 2014 TIPS). Front Eurodollar and Fed Funds futures have sneaked up to new contract highs though liquidity in the European cash market remains dire. Technically this contract has broken above the top of a ‘triangle’ at the apex of a very large ‘wedge’, giving mixed signals. Moving averages and the Ichimoku ‘cloud’ are still very much in bullish mode. It is noFri, 30 Oct 2009 08:54:57 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-10-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-10-23.htmlComment: Front month Eurodollar futures are holding up well though red ones edged a little lower because they have more room to manoeuvre. Hints of year-end worries have crept into market psychology, but so far have had little effect on prices. Technically this contract is holding in a ‘triangle’ at the apex of a very large ‘wedge’, giving mixed signals. It is no longer overbought and momentum is still nil. We shall continue to allow for a small initial dip to trendline support and possiblyFri, 23 Oct 2009 08:24:52 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-10-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-10-16.htmlComment: Eurodollar futures have proved remarkably resilient despite Euribor ones edging lower and Treasury yields backing up by more than we had expected. Technically this contract is holding in a tiny ‘triangle’ at the apex of a very large ‘wedge’, giving mixed signals. Is in no longer overbought but then again momentumis nil. We shall continue to allow for a small initial dip to trendline support and possibly the Ichimoku ‘cloud’, though note that this might be achieved by creeping sidewaysFri, 16 Oct 2009 08:12:54 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-10-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-10-09.htmlComment: Eurodollar futures retreated from record highs and the top of very large ‘wedge’ formations. This move appears to be caused by Euribor futures moving lower (flattening the yield curve further), a process that is likely to continue next week. Therefore we could see a clear-out of new recent longs, as prices alternate between painfully slow rallies and sudden slides. Expect a drop to trendline support and possibly the Ichimoku ‘cloud’, at which point a new interim low should form.Fri, 09 Oct 2009 08:08:49 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-10-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-10-02.htmlComment: Whether it’s refugees from the zero interest policy, or that we are due another dose of banking jitters, investors have suddenly moved out along the US Treasury curve, flattening it in the process. We feel this is the start of a big move, safe-haven buying of yield as the American public follows in Mrs. Watanabe’s footsteps. Eurodollar futures inched to new record highs, Dec09 Fed Funds futures trading at 99.850; could we conceivably get to 100.00? (Note that from 2001 to 2005 EuroyenFri, 02 Oct 2009 09:10:57 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-10-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-09-25.htmlComment: As TBill rates march relentlessly towards zero (one-month today 0.02% and twelve-months 0.38%), Dollar interbank rates for US banks are too: overnight Libor 0.21% and three-months 0.28%. This has allowed several Eurodollar futures contracts to inch to new record highs (Oct09 99.675) and a picture of American bankers being force-fed free money like geese comes to mind. We still feel it is just a matter of time before they are tempted out along the yield curve so that June and Sep10Fri, 25 Sep 2009 08:56:47 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-09-25.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-09-18.htmlComment: Last week’s small pullback from the top of a potential big ‘broadening top’ formation has corrected the overbought situation while keeping other aspects in bullish mode. Nevertheless the chance of a sudden slide has increased fractionally, with a potential drop towards 99.140 before recovering next month. Strategy: Possibly attempt tiny shorts at 99.340; stop/reverse above 99.400 for 99.540/99.650. Cover shorts between 99.200 and 99.140 and look to buy on signs of basing here using aFri, 18 Sep 2009 08:25:25 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-09-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-09-11.htmlComment: Rapidly looking like Japan with the lowest funding rates around: front Fed Fund futures have rates at 0.1525% and Sep09 Eurodollars at 0.295%, with some good names in New York able to raise three-month money below 0.25%. We are beginning to see a split between rates for true US domestic borrowers and others. In other words, we are going back to a 1970/1980’s world of dollars versus Eurodollars. With June09 breaking above 99.000 we have had to review our outlook. Though very overboughtFri, 11 Sep 2009 09:27:25 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-09-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-09-04.htmlComment: Very tricky as Fed Fund futures price in rates at 0.165% this September, rising to 1.00% in a year’s time, benchmark two-year TNote yields drop to 0.88% (close to December’s all-time low at 0.6125%), and front month Eurodollar futures showing small signs of instability at record highs (99.685 front Sep). This March contract continues working in a potential ‘broadening top’ and is still very overbought. Strategy: Possibly attempt tiny shorts at 99.315; stop above 99.380. Short termFri, 04 Sep 2009 10:43:02 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-09-04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-08-14.htmlComment: Massive moves in all money market futures this week as many are forced to cover at any cost. New all-time high here as front months squeeze to new records (99.570), dragging Treasury yields lower. With so much going on it is easy to loose sight of the fact that the interbank market is still not working as it should and that Libor rates are indicative only. Though very surprised by the latest rally we continue to feel that futures contracts are working in highly unstable ‘broadeningFri, 14 Aug 2009 08:07:08 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-08-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-08-07.htmlComment: Red contracts dropped by more than front ones but the point is that prices are consolidating under record highs. This is expected to continue next week and maybe all month as they work in ‘broadening tops’ like this one, or ‘wedge’ formations which is what front ones are doing. Note that moving averages look set to cross to bearish and that a massive weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’ should provide plenty of support lower down. This contract is still overbought and momentum might turn bearishFri, 07 Aug 2009 08:52:14 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-08-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-07-31.htmlComment: The US Treasury curve flattened dramatically today, (we say at last!) in what is seen as the start of a trend which should continue for many months. While two-year TNote yields are up 25 basis points this week, thirty-year TBond ones dropped 15 basis points yesterday. This has not been reflected in the money market where no money is changing hands and quotes are the same as last week. Eurodollar futures have retreated from the upper edge of potential ‘broadening tops’ and there is aFri, 31 Jul 2009 08:19:42 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-07-31.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-07-24.htmlComment: Though September Fed Funds futures are trading at just 20 basis points, for the second time this year Eurodollar futures are showing signs of instability. Because they are overbought, and because they have formed ‘broadening’ or ‘wedge’ potential topping patterns, there is a chance that we could see another sudden (relatively) big drop as we saw at the beginning of June. For a third consecutive week they are struggling at or under May’s high, a tiny ‘bearish engulfing’ candle lastFri, 24 Jul 2009 09:05:07 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-07-24.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-07-17.htmlComment: Front-month futures are consolidating neatly at record highs, one-month Libor still at 0.29% and three-months 0.51%. We feel futures prices will continue to sneak higher with red months having more room. Contracts are somewhat overbought and therefore prone to sudden slippage on the slightest piece of bad news so extreme caution is warranted. Note that open interest at 6.6 million contracts is now half that of the 2007 peak, underlining just how much money is no longer swilling aroundFri, 17 Jul 2009 07:52:43 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-07-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-07-10.v02.htmlComment: Front-month futures are trading at new record highs and one-month Libor is almost at the Fed Funds target of 0.25%. We feel futures prices will continue to sneak higher with red months having more room for manoeuvre. Contracts are also overbought and therefore prone to sudden slippage on the slightest piece of baddish news so extreme caution is warranted. Nevertheless the hope of even lower rates continues. Strategy: Attempt small longs at 99.460, adding to 99.390; stop well belowFri, 10 Jul 2009 08:20:35 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-07-10.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-07-03.htmlComment : Scrambling back up towards contract high (99.420) as two and five-year TNotes catch up with what has been going on in the money market, where US banks are finding it a lot easier and cheaper to borrow dollars than other institutions can. This futures contract is overbought and prone to sudden slippage on the slightest piece of baddish news so extreme caution is warranted. Nevertheless the hope of even lower rates continues. Strategy: Attempt small longs at 99.395, adding to 99.320;Fri, 03 Jul 2009 08:32:17 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-07-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-06-26.htmlComment: Bullish momentum has increased significantly this week allowing front futures contracts to rally towards the record highs set in May. Moving averages have crossed to bullish and the Lagging Span has plenty of support from last month’s candles. Some are hoping the ECB’s generosity will translate to lower yields in the Eurodollars too. We feel this is unlikely as the dollar market in Europe has no depth and is very quiet indeed. Therefore we continue to favour a broadly sideways moveFri, 26 Jun 2009 08:22:02 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-06-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-06-19.htmlComment: Once again we wish to remind traders what can happen when the whiff of a banking problem hits sky-high futures prices: the market collapses in a frenzied clear-out, something that will remain a problem for months to come. Yesterday we suffered a smaller version of what happened on the 5th June, again a correction lower where trendline support held. Swirling rumours of potential changes to Fed policy fly in the face of the generous funding supplied by the authorities. Prices are backFri, 19 Jun 2009 07:59:05 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-06-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-06-12.htmlComment: The US Treasury yield curve is expected to flatten from what is now close to its steepest ever, where yields are no longer historically low but closer to their average of the last decade. Ten large US banks have been allowed to throw off the coils associated with TARP but the interbank market for US dollars remains exceedingly tight, a move which may result in bigger differentiation between the haves and have-nots. Last Friday’s huge clear-out in futures contracts is a reminder ofFri, 12 Jun 2009 08:14:19 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-06-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-06-05.htmlComment: Because benchmark US Treasury two-year yields are firmly stuck just under 1.00%, and because very long dated paper is out of fashion, stress and cracks are centred on five and ten year maturities so that the spread between these hit a new record at 162 basis points. Eurodollar futures continue in neat correction mode with the second small leg lower we had warned about. Channel support may or may not limit the most recent drift, and a break is would not be decisive. We continue to feelFri, 05 Jun 2009 08:30:00 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-06-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-05-29.htmlComment: The correction of the last five days has been very contained and appears to be trying to base against first Fibonacci support and ahead of channel support. It has eased the overbought situation very considerably though we cannot rule out a second small leg lower. We continue to feel contracts should trade broadly sideways over the coming month, with very small upside biases as central banks throw money at the problem. Be warned however that any loss in confidence/sign of jitters willFri, 29 May 2009 08:05:04 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-05-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-05-22.htmlComment: With a high at 99.443 (June 2009) front month contracts have exceeded even our most optimistic targets. They have become terribly overbought in the process and yesterday, on good volume, formed ‘bearish engulfing’ candles. These suggest a period of correction and consolidation is likely as we try to re-assess the spreads over official interest rates, the premium different banks must pay (three-month Libor today 0.65%), and the steepness of the yield curve. We continue to feelFri, 22 May 2009 11:18:07 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-05-22.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-05-15.htmlComment: Having met our upside target at a record 99.250, things get more difficult, especially as even front December is trading over 99.000 already. Not surprisingly volume and open interest are roughly half of last year’s peak. We have to question the whole concept of official Libor rates because the spread between what the best and worst names have to pay is too eye-watering to believe. Three-month Libor has crept down to 0.83% but a lucky few might get away with 0.70% as some money isFri, 15 May 2009 08:05:47 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-05-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-05-08.htmlComment: Front month Eurodollar futures are trading very close to or at record highs as hopes for an economic recovery in H2 2009 are scaled back (whatever view the authorities might be trying to peddle). Three-month Libor inching down to 0.94%, just as Euro and Sterling ones are doing, as we ponder the possibility of 0.75%. We continue to feel contracts should trade broadly sideways over the coming months, with upside biases as central banks throw more money at the problem. Be warned howeverFri, 08 May 2009 08:18:41 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-05-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-05-01.htmlComment: This week the US yield curve steepened a lot more than we had thought possible, narrowing the spread under Bunds. Front month Eurodollar futures are trading as high as they did in June 2003 as the enormity of the problem sinks in and three-month Libor inches down to 1.00%. We continue to feel contracts should trade broadly sideways over the coming month, but now with a small upside bias. Strategy: Possibly attempt tiny longs at 99.020/98.975; stop below 98.900. Cover ahead of 99.250.Fri, 01 May 2009 07:30:05 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-05-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-04-24.htmlComment: Hard to believe but true: over half analysts polled by Bloomberg think the Fed will cut the Fed Funds target to 0.13% this Wednesday. And what exactly might this achieve? When three-month Libor is 1.08% today, offers few and far between, and the spread between the haves and have-nots has widened significantly this week. We continue to feel front month Eurodollar futures contracts should trade broadly sideways over the coming month, with moves above 99.000 unlikely to be sustained.Fri, 24 Apr 2009 07:51:22 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-04-24.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-04-17.htmlComment: Ichimoku ‘clouds’ have done a better job propping up front Eurodollar futures contracts than we had thought possible. It underlines the fact that the trend since September 2007 is towards lower interest rates, albeit with some massive gyrations around September 2008. Open interest has halved from 12 million or so to 6 million during these months, as banks shrink. Three-month Libor down the tiniest fraction to 1.10% today despite many claiming to see signs that the economy is beginningFri, 17 Apr 2009 08:05:06 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-04-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-04-10.htmlComment: Another contract expiry, another big drop in open interest underlining how much banks’ books have shrunk. Over the coming month we favour a series of random, snaking moves either side of the Ichimoku ‘cloud’ with small ‘extensions’ likely beyond the expected 98.500 to 98.950 band. Despite myriad US government initiatives (acronyms springing up a lot faster than ‘green shoots’) they have not grasped the notion of the ‘Eurodollar’, a market that has been around since the 1970’s oilFri, 10 Apr 2009 14:38:26 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-04-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-03-20.htmlComment: As suggested here last week the Fed moved to ‘quantitative easing’, flattening the yield curve, though for some reason thirty-year remains relatively out of favour. This decision has caused Eurodollar futures to bounce beyond what we had allowed for and forcing a small shift in our outlook. Over the coming month we now favour a series of random, snaking moves either side of the Ichimoku ‘cloud’ with small ‘extensions’ likely beyond the expected 98.500 to 98.950 band. It should beFri, 20 Mar 2009 08:39:16 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-03-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-03-13.htmlComment: The US yield curve should flatten as investors ponder whether the Fed will follow the Bank of England and Swiss National Bank’s lead in ‘quantitative easing’. Eurodollar futures dipped below our downside target and the Ichimoku ‘cloud’, this contract to a low at 98.415. This week prices ought to hold above here, though probably consolidating below the pivotal area at 98.640. Later this month we still feel that the risk of another small drop remains, maybe as low as 98.300. Strategy:Fri, 13 Mar 2009 09:07:32 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-03-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-03-06.htmlComment: We feel the spread between TBills and Libor should widen again,here as well as Euro and Sterling. This means that there is a chance that March09 Eurodollar futures contracts suddenly plunge to 98.000. The US yield curve should flatten quickly, especially 30-year TBonds, as investors learn from the Bank of England exactly what ‘Quantitative Easing’ means. Eurodollar futures contracts are moving sideways just above pivotal support in the middle of a large Ichimoku ‘cloud’. We feel thatFri, 06 Mar 2009 08:50:34 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-03-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-02-27.htmlComment: Strangely open interest in this futures contract has increased over the last fortnight hinting at continued severe pressure in the money market ahead of delivery in under three weeks. All the more so as contracts for 2009 delivery appear to be settling down at rates equivalent to 1.30%. The Libor yield curve is set at 45 degrees, from 0.35% overnight to 2.12% for twelve-month money. Futures contracts are moving sideways just above pivotal support (98.640 here and June09, 98.550 Sep09)Fri, 27 Feb 2009 09:06:25 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-02-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-02-20.htmlComment: Futures contracts are priced for economic recovery by Christmas which seems a little too optimistic considering the number and size of bail-outs being requested, plus the increasing threat of nationalisation. They are also coming round to the idea that term interbank rates are unlikely to drop much below 1.00%, regardless of the Fed Funds target, with three-month Libor firmly stuck at 1.25% for some time now. Futures contracts are moving sideways just above pivotal support (98.640Fri, 20 Feb 2009 09:44:32 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-02-20.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-02-13.htmlComment: The US Treasury two-year/ten-year yield spread is close to its steepest in thirty years and should flatten as investors accept they have to move into longer-dated maturities to pick up something resembling a vaguely acceptable yield. Meanwhile bankers have to face facts and pay an awful lot more than key central bank rates for money, and that it is just a question of how many basis points for which maturities. Supply and demand, plus a little bluff and counter-bluff, will decide theseFri, 13 Feb 2009 09:19:14 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-02-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-02-06.htmlComment: The US Treasury yield curve is expected to start flattening this month, two’s/ten’s around the 200 basis points level. Interbank rates are looking more ‘real’, overnight quoted 0.35%-0.25% and three-month Libor at 1.24%, the 100 basis points over the Fed Funds target that we had predicted. This spread may widen out a little more by delivery of this March contract as Japanese year-end coincides with continued banking woes. This futures contract is consolidating under the ‘neckline’ ofFri, 06 Feb 2009 09:23:04 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-02-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-01-30.htmlComment: A few are still clinging to the image of economic recovery after the summer; the reality is that many have already written off the whole of this year. Three-month TBills yield 0.24%, with the Fed’s target at 0.25%, so they no longer command a premium on concerns about potential bank failures. This does not, however, mean that three-month Libor need be anywhere near this low, a concept futures traders seem to be having trouble with. Money desks seem to be getting the message withFri, 30 Jan 2009 09:24:46 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-01-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-01-23.htmlComment: Markets are streets ahead of regulators, politicians et al, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange on Monday introducing Eurodollar options with strikes which allow for negative interest rates. While unlikely except in very unusual conditions, thinking the unthinkable has been useful over the last eighteen months. Eurodollar futures volumes are about one third of what they were this time last year, and open interest half of 2007’s peak, a testament to the rapidly shrinking banking sector.Fri, 23 Jan 2009 09:38:26 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-eurodollar-futures/2009-01-23.html