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Technical analysis: Euro-Bund Future

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Euro−Bund future –Dec 2008

Mon, Sep 8 2008, 08:12 GMT
by Nicole Elliott

Mizuho Corporate Bank


Comment: Schatz have remained well-anchored while longer dated maturities fly about. The words ‘knee jerk’ and ‘ill conceived’ spring to mind. Bunds should continue to outperform US Treasuries with thirty-year having most room; eventually two-year should catch up. Decent volume as contracts roll is irrelevant. Despite price action of the last two working days we still see this as consolidation at a fairly pivotal level, the psychological 4.00% yield. If not this week then some time this month we favour another rally, our medium term measured target at 117.70/118.00, roughly equivalent to a benchmark yield of 3.75% and one standard deviation from the mean of the last decade.

Strategy: Buy at 114.45, adding to 113.50; stop below 112.50. Add to longs on a daily close above 115.50 for 116.00/116.45, eventually 117.70/118.00.


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Mizuho Corporate Bank  | 1-3-3, Marunouchi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8210
http://www.mizuho-cb.co.uk | Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk

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