http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-11-19.htmlComment: The German Treasury yield curve flattened over the last week as investors realise short-dates have little room for manoeuvre the closer they get to zero. This move should continue and gather pace, US TNotes leading the way so that these eventually yield less than their German counterparts. Slowly, and on rising open interest, the Euribor money market is beginning to understand that the ECB’s 1.00% target is not the lowest level for interest rates, the deposit rate currently payingThu, 19 Nov 2009 09:32:24 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-11-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-11-12.htmlComment: Over the week some investors woke up to the delights of five-year treasury paper seeing as two-year yields are at record lows of 1.00% or less (as are many index-linked issues). This has helped Euribor contracts higher, where massive volume (especially in front March) on Thursday and Friday hint at many changing their minds. Three-month Euribor is about 5 basis points higher than Libor, a fact which must be taken into account on delivery. Technically futures contracts are overboughtThu, 12 Nov 2009 08:27:12 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-11-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-11-05.htmlComment: Slow work but Euribor contracts are trading higher, propelled by trendline and Ichimoku cloud support, the Lagging Span helped up by the 26-day moving average. Price action since September looks increasingly like ‘triangle’ consolidation and, being a continuation pattern, hints at a break to new contract highs this month – helped along by moving averages which have turned bullish. Central bankers will probably do anything to avoid the merest whiff of year-end pressures as seen in 2007Thu, 05 Nov 2009 08:25:40 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-11-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-10-29.htmlComment: Schatz yields have dropped more than others over the last fortnight but with benchmark two-year yielding 1.276%, double their US counterparts, we feel there is still room to drop further. Euribor contracts are trading very neatly, the latest small sell-off contained by trendline, cloud and Fibonacci support. Price action since September looks increasingly like ‘triangle’ consolidation and, being a continuation pattern, hints at a break to new contract highs next month. Moving averagesThu, 29 Oct 2009 08:48:57 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-10-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-10-22.htmlComment: Having met the minimum downside objective of this year’s fourth and smallest corrective move lower, life gets more difficult. Despite moving averages being bearish we feel that the combination of trendline support and the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud will stem this latest small decline. Strategy: Attempt small longs at 98.940; stop well below 98.875. Add to longs on a sustained break above 99.000 for 99.150 medium term and maybe more.Thu, 22 Oct 2009 08:24:39 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-10-22.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-10-15.htmlComment: Almost record volume last week (and record for this contract on the 9th October), just behind that of the week ending the 7th June, suggest traders have not entirely grasped the dynamics behind this market; either that or blame it on those slashing two by one option spreads. Three-month Libor at 69 basis points today, well below the ECB’s target 1.00%, and unlikely to drop much further as year-end pressures start building and excess liquidity is not renewed after mid-November. PricesThu, 15 Oct 2009 08:13:49 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-10-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-10-08.htmlComment: The German Treasury yield curve has flattened (30/2 year by a not inconsiderable 50 basis points) as yields at the long end drop; this has come as a surprise to many and is making equity bulls nervous. Three-month Libor at 70 basis points today and becoming more costly to produce through the forwards, while futures contracts look top-heavy, stalling at the top of ‘wedges’ at record highs. Good volume on yesterday’s slip suggests we are due another of our periodical clear-outs. AllowThu, 08 Oct 2009 08:59:32 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-10-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-10-01.htmlComment: Eurozone interbank offered rates are edging a little higher than those in London, and Euribor futures sold off from record highs on very good volume yesterday. The Eurozone yield curve has flattened considerably over the last two weeks, the start of a longer term process we feel, and EZ16 index-linked Treasuries yield less than they have ever done as government budget deficits inflate rapidly. Three-month Libor at 71 basis points today, ones fixed at 0.395% at the BBA - well below theThu, 01 Oct 2009 08:21:01 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-10-01.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-09-24.htmlComment: New record highs, here and in many other contract months, as the ECB’s ‘target rate’ becomes an irrelevance. The German treasury yield curve’s writhing is worthy of the Loch Ness Monster as Bobls get hit, Schatz and thirty-year remain bid while Bunds are stuck in the mud. Three-month Libor at 70 basis points today, and ones offered at just 40, so that the next question is how low dare we take rates? Expect futures to creep higher with, as ever, the potential for another bankingThu, 24 Sep 2009 11:23:09 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-09-24.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-09-17.htmlComment: Now that nobody knows what ‘target rate’ central bankers are aiming for, money market futures can trade at whim keeping in mind that rates may well remain exceptionally low for a very long time. Euribor futures retreating from record highs (highest so far Dec09 at 99.315), the latest in a series of corrective moves in the massive rally of the last twelve months. Expect more of the same with, as ever, the potential for another banking ‘crisis’. Strategy: Attempt small longs atThu, 17 Sep 2009 07:58:48 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-09-17.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-09-10.htmlComment: Re-thinking the meaning of the ECB’s ‘target rate’ as benchmark Schatz yields drop to a record low 1.038% while other investors extend out into Bobls. Euribor futures contracts regularly setting new records (highest so far Dec09 at 99.315) on good volume and rising open interest suggesting many are reluctantly beingdrawn in. Likewise three-month Libor rates creep very slowly lower, 0.75% today, as billions are parked overnight at the ECB’s deposit rate. Strategy: Possibly attempt tinyThu, 10 Sep 2009 10:36:09 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-09-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-09-03.htmlComment: Futures contracts are pricing in a gradual recovery from next summer, though others are maybe not so keen piling into Shatz paper instead so that benchmark yields are very close to March’s record low at 1.097%. While the ECB is expected to keep its target rate at 1.00% today market rates are well below that as about €160B of excess cash is parked overnight with the central bank at 0.20-0.25%. Despite this there is a second offer of one-year money from the ECB due at the end of thisThu, 03 Sep 2009 08:49:40 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-09-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-08-13.htmlComment: Odd price action this week as central banks’ exit strategies are discussed at length while money market futures contracts rally, some to new record highs. Euribor’s price action last week was a miniature version of June’s slide and it now looks set for another cautious upside probe. The longer this sort of price action repeats itself (as it has done this year), the more unstable it becomes. Strategy: Possibly attempt small longs at 99.025, adding to 98.960; stop below 98.850. UpsideThu, 13 Aug 2009 08:37:52 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-08-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-08-06.htmlComment: The German Treasury yield curve flattened as expected, the 30/2-year spread narrowing 35 basis points as 30-year yields drop 25 basis points and then 2-year rallies by 25. This Euribor contract inched up to a new record high at 99.105, at which point it was dragged down by Eurodollar and Short Sterling contracts, precisely what we had warned about. The process is not over yet and might gather momentum, so that a slide to the bottom of the channel must be allowed for. Strategy:Thu, 06 Aug 2009 08:31:11 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-08-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-07-30.htmlComment: The German Treasury yield curve should flatten slowly as yields drop more than those of US ones. Front month Euribor futures have inched up to new record highs, front Sep to 99.150, and red months should outperform over the coming month. While there is little to stop futures contracts nudging even higher still, we remind that the mix of record low rates/record futures prices and a shaky banking system mean sudden slips and slides are highly likely. Strategy: Attempt small longs atThu, 30 Jul 2009 07:27:54 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-07-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-07-23.htmlComment: Reuters’ Financial Crisis Poll this week has the overwhelming majority (80 analysts) suggesting the US government needs no further economic stimulus packages because the recession has ended or will end this year. Tempering this view they see the financial sector remaining in a mess for another 12 months, so that bank lending will not resume in earnest for another year or two. This goes some way to explain why Euro interbank yields are under the ECB’s 1.00% target on all maturities outThu, 23 Jul 2009 08:43:26 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-07-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-07-16.htmlComment: Euribor futures have inched up to new record highs, front Sep to 99.100, three-month Libor is 0.96% and one-month is still holding at 0.56%; looks like the ECB might be one step behind yet again. While there is little to stop futures contracts nudging even higher still, we remind that the mix of record low rates/record futures prices and a shaky banking system mean that volatility should remain high. Strategy: Attempt small longs at 98.910, adding on a sudden drop to 98.825; stop wellThu, 16 Jul 2009 08:25:07 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-07-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-07-09.htmlComment: Worried stock market investors have been piling into Schatz (benchmark yield 1.20%) over the last three weeks (and 6-month Bubills which yield just 0.50%), and are now moving out along the yield curve a little, as US ones are doing this week. Credit spreads should widen again, Moody’s Baa 10-year to 500 basis points against a current 375, iTraxx Crossover from 775 to 900/950. Euribor futures have inched up to new record highs, front Sep to 99.075 as some may try and force the ECB intoThu, 09 Jul 2009 09:25:55 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-07-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-07-02.htmlComment: Euribor futures are consolidating happily just under record highs as the ECB meets again today. Front March looks set to break higher and catch up with this December one. As with Short Sterling futures, the question now is whether contracts can hold above the 99.000 level. We remind that the mix of record low rates/record futures prices and a shaky banking system mean that volatility should remain high. Strategy: Attempt small longs at 98.815, adding 98.770; stop well below 98.650.Thu, 02 Jul 2009 08:27:11 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-07-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-06-25.htmlComment: Bunds, Bobls, and now Shatz are outperforming their US counterparts as the ECB kindly donates €442B to 1,121 banks for a year. Not surprisingly Euribor futures rallied to new record highs, becoming very overbought in the process, while interest rates for less than one month dropped the most as overly long banks decide what to do with their new money. We remind that the mix of record low rates/high futures prices and a shaky banking system mean that volatility in these contracts shouldThu, 25 Jun 2009 08:41:03 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-06-25.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-06-18.htmlComment: Recovering well from the major upset in the first week of June. There is no room for complacency though because record futures prices and a still shaky banking system mean further slippages of this sort remain a real possibility. With the ECB ready to lend unlimited one-year Euros value the 25/06.09 political voices claiming their financial system is sound are laughable. Interestingly, it is precisely because of this complex mix that Euribor futures should present better tradingThu, 18 Jun 2009 07:49:06 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-06-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-06-11.htmlComment: The German Treasury yield curve has started to flatten at last, thirty-year doing best and also gaining against US TBonds. We see this as the beginning of trends that have a lot further to go. Futures contracts collapsed, an example of what can happen when apathy meets the summer lull and contracts trading at record highs. It is nevertheless a corrective drop and the very long term trend is to higher prices. Interesting to note how the Ichimoku ‘cloud’ has limited closing prices, andThu, 11 Jun 2009 08:14:50 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-06-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-06-04.htmlComment: Futures contracts are consolidating under May’s record highs (Sep09 highest 98.980) easing the overbought situation very considerably. Price action is seen as ‘triangle’ consolidation within the ‘channel’ and above the Ichimoku ‘cloud’. More interestingly perhaps, low volumes and apathy seem to suggest the summer lull has set in early. With a little luck prices will base against the 26-day average at 98.695 setting off a re-test of 98.830 and then a push up to 99.000. Then sidewaysThu, 04 Jun 2009 08:56:00 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-06-04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-05-28.htmlComment: Three-month Libor holding above 1.25%, though one-week has eased to 0.89%, so futures contracts are consolidating under this month’s record highs. This front December contract is no longer overbought or momentum bullish, yet there are no signs of instability. With a little luck prices will hold within the channel established in January, setting up for a re-test of the 98.850 area, maybe 99.000. Then sideways work, probably between 98.650 and 98.950. Strategy: Attempt small longs atThu, 28 May 2009 08:25:36 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-05-28.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-05-22.v02.htmlComment: Most contracts posted new record highs, September 2009 at 98.980, but rising open interest over the last week suggests hedging on the pullback. Three-month Libor is a tad lower again at 1.25% though short-dates edged up towards 1.00%. Having met our upside target it would make life easier if we could see some signs of instability – but we can’t. We remind that at these very lofty levels perceptions can change suddenly and dramatically so extreme caution is warranted. We shall allowFri, 22 May 2009 11:48:47 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-05-22.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-05-14.htmlComment: Benchmark Shatz yields at 1.30% could be described as ‘firmly anchored’, even more so US ones which have been yielding just under 1.00% for five months now, though very long-dated paper has been a lot more volatile. Good volume last Thursday as futures contacts rally to new record highs suggest some have been forced into action. Three-month Libor is a tad lower again at 1.27%, the feeling being the spread over official target rates will narrow a little further. Perceptions can swingThu, 14 May 2009 09:27:02 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-05-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-05-07.htmlComment: Benchmark Shatz yields at 1.45% look generous compared to UK and US ones, especially as interbank hostility continues. The ECB has belatedly bowed to market forces and is expected to trim the key rate to 1.00% today (thereby narrowing the band to 75 basis points from the current 100). The extent of the mismanagement can be seen in the chart above. ‘Triangle’ consolidation since April in this front June futures contract means there is still everything to go for between now andThu, 07 May 2009 07:36:27 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-05-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-04-30.htmlComment: ‘Triangle’ consolidation over the last month while Shatz and long-dated Bund yields drop suggest this contract will break higher eventually as the enormity of Germany’s banking woes sinks in. Three-month Libor is a tad lower again at 1.37% today as short-dates move towards the ECB’s deposit rate. While allowing for random moves between 98.500 and 98.750 for up to three weeks, rallies to new record highs should be pencilled in starting with the front December and March 2010 contracts.Thu, 30 Apr 2009 08:00:26 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-04-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-04-23.htmlComment: Open interest has been dropping since Easter, presumably because futures remain within recent trading ranges. Meanwhile three-month Libor seems quite stuck at 1.41% hinting that this contract will hover uneasily around 98.600. Therefore we shall adjust our outlook allowing for random moves between 98.500 and 98.750 for another three or four weeks. Strategy: Attempt small longs at 98.650, adding to 98.600; stop well below 98.500. Upside target 98.750/98.800.Thu, 23 Apr 2009 07:40:33 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-04-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-04-16.htmlComment: Euro three-month Libor at 1.41% today as the Bundesbank’s Weber warns against cutting the target rate below 1.00% (because it will paralyse the money market) and saying that there is no credit crunch in the Eurozone. One has to assume something was lost in translation. Euribor futures still have a bid tone and the chance of posting yet another new record high in the front months remains. Strategy: Possibly attempt tiny longs on a dip to 98.700/98.650; stop/reverse below 98.600 forThu, 16 Apr 2009 07:51:44 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-04-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-04-10.htmlComment: Record volume in this futures contract as it sells off from contract high at 98.780 suggests a little complacency that Libor will ease. Funnily enough rates have actually dipped since then, three-month offered at 1.43% today, so that of the G7 these are the closest to the central bank’s target rate. Open interest has declined and more profit-taking is likely next week. Strategy: Stand aside if possible. For those who have to: attempt tiny longs on a dip to 98.695/98.650; stop/reverseFri, 10 Apr 2009 14:35:04 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-04-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-03-19.htmlComment: The ECB may claim the moral high ground, but in a world of competitive devaluations and manipulation of interest rates and banks, they are out of touch. They have also given the market an excellent opportunity to re-position for a narrowing of the spread between US and German Treasury yields, and whatever they say we feel the Eurozone yield curve should flatten a lot further, quickly. Not surprising therefore to see Euribor futures hit a new record high at 98.690, on soaring openThu, 19 Mar 2009 09:10:20 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-03-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-03-12.htmlComment: The German Treasury yield curve should continue to flatten, probably quite quickly, as it moves towards a more Japanese-style shape. Therefore we feel that ten-year Bunds will yield less than their US counterparts, say about 40 or 50 basis points less. Three-month Bubills yield 0.60% while Libor is 1.64%, 100 basis points over official rates probably now considered the minimum banks have to pay. Note how steadily this futures contract’s rally has clung to trendline support and how theThu, 12 Mar 2009 08:57:03 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-03-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-03-05.htmlComment: A lack of viable alternatives has sent investors scurrying back into Shatz and the German Dax index is expected to tumble faster than others over the next couple of months dropping towards 2003’s low. Consensus opinion is that the ECB is way ‘behind the curve’ which explains the booming open interest in this contract month as it hits a record high at 98.590. Note how steadily the rally has clung to trendline support and how the candles have helped push the Lagging Span higher. More ofThu, 05 Mar 2009 09:06:09 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-03-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-02-26.htmlComment: The German yield curve should continue to flatten as Shatz’s progress is hampered as yields approach 1.00%. Money markets are still divided into two very different halves at the moment, overnight out to one month closer to conventional spreads, while longer term dates as tight as they have ever been. While Euribor futures contracts might consolidate under 98.500 for another week, it is just a matter of time before they sneak up to new record highs where June09 has more room thanThu, 26 Feb 2009 08:44:49 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-02-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-02-19.htmlComment: Shatz and Bobl prices at new record highs, Bunds hovering just under theirs, as yield spreads with other EU countries balloon alarmingly - Austrian ten-year Treasuries a record 135 over Bunds on fears for Eastern Europe exposure. The German yield curve is flattening as expected though very long dated paper (here and in other G7 countries) remains terribly skittish. Money markets are divided into two very different halves at the moment, overnight out to one month closer to conventionalThu, 19 Feb 2009 10:06:08 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-02-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-02-12.htmlComment: Bunds and Bobls are waking up to the dangers inherent in the Euro and the ECB, outperforming Shatz (which is perhaps not so surprising when at a record low 1.315%). Euribor contracts inched to new record highs, June09 highest at 98.435 as investors roll from March09 into this one, despite waning bullish momentum. Banks are awash with Overnight money which they lend mostly to the ECB at about half the rate of three-month Libor (1.960% today). Journalists take note: since the singleThu, 12 Feb 2009 09:34:55 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-02-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-02-05.htmlComment: The spread between German and US Treasuries continues to narrow, led by insatiable demand for Schatz, a process that should continue this month. Euribor calendar spreads are flat as there is less and less to go for in a practically zero interest rate environment. Nevertheless, and despite much lower open interest in this front March contract, we feel that the risk of a liquidity shortage at the end of Q1 2009 remains. We expect all contract months to hold below the all-time high priceThu, 05 Feb 2009 09:18:18 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-02-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-01-29.htmlComment: The German yield curve is as steep as it was in June 2004, in turn its steepest in at least a decade. We feel it ought to start levelling off soon and then flattening, a process that started this week with 30-year paper, although we might see Schatz outperform for another month or so. Volume and open interest are migrating out to the June 2009 contract as the ECB is seen to be dragging its feet and, having set an all-time high price at 98.405, should consolidate below here for a weekThu, 29 Jan 2009 09:53:48 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-01-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-01-22.htmlComment: Trichet quibbling over deflation and disinflation, telling us ‘we have correctly anchored inflation expectations’ (who, the royal we?), while the PIGS’ (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain) yield spreads over Bunds balloon to unthinkable levels. Soaring open interest on very good volume in this futures contract as interest rates could be anywhere by mid-March, and not even a hint of an apology from the ECB who got policy so wrong in H1 2008. Because overnight rates have dropped toThu, 22 Jan 2009 09:21:39 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-euribor-futures/2009-01-22.html