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Technical analysis: Euribor Futures

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Euribor – December 2008

Thu, Nov 13 2008, 08:56 GMT
by Nicole Elliott

Mizuho Corporate Bank


Comment: The stampede into short-dated German Treasuries continues and the spread over US two-year TNotes should narrow significantly by year-end. Note that Schatz yield 2.25%, the same as UK Gilts of that maturity, and three-month Libor is priced to drop close to there by the summer. Plenty of Libids all week while three-month Libor is theoretically offered at 4.23%, a whopping 235 basis points over Bubills. This futures contract’s latest squeeze higher has put it at extremely overbought levels and interest rates could be anywhere mid-December. Running a bank in conditions like this is impossible.

Strategy: Keep away if possible. If you really have to: attempt tiny shorts at 96.555; stop above 96.885. Cover some shorts at 96.250 and the rest ahead of 95.650.


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Mizuho Corporate Bank  | 1-3-3, Marunouchi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8210
http://www.mizuho-cb.co.uk | Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk

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