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Technical analysis: Euribor Futures

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Euribor – December 2008

Thu, Sep 4 2008, 07:52 GMT
by Nicole Elliott

Mizuho Corporate Bank


Comment: German Treasury twos/tens are flat and Bobls yield less than either. How long will it take for thirty-year to wake up? Credit spreads started to widen again this month and we expect them to continue to do so. Pressure for year-end Euro funds remains high, and may become more difficult if the ECB tightens collateral criteria. Open interest in this contract has ballooned over the last week despite prices going nowhere. We appear to have formed an interim top just above the psychological level at 95.000 and look set to drift a little lower over the coming fortnight. We still favour a drift to 94.760/94.650 and a re-test of 94.500 cannot be ruled out.

Strategy: Attempt shorts at 94.920, adding to 95.000; stop above 95.105. Cover shorts between 94.760 and 94.640 and watch for signs of basing and consider going long.


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Mizuho Corporate Bank  | 1-3-3, Marunouchi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8210
http://www.mizuho-cb.co.uk | Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk

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