http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-10-29.v02.htmlComment: October’s low at 8.8200, just above 1976’s record low around 8.2000, put Sterling close to its most oversold against Norwegian krone. Fairly sharp intra-day moves over the last two months suggest a major re-think and intermediate turn in the pound’s fortunes, here against one of this year’s best performers and against a raft of other currencies too. Yesterday’s close well above the ‘neckline’ of an inverted ‘head-and-shoulders’ has a first measured target at 9.8000 with a possibleThu, 29 Oct 2009 13:18:40 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-10-29.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-10-29.htmlComment : Very big intra-day moves have formed a large ‘head-and-shoulders’ top in Euro/sterling, completed yesterday with a close below the ‘neckline’. This adds weight to our view that an interim high has probably formed and that we shall hold below here at least until the end of this year. However, while above 0.8400 which is two standard deviations from the equivalent long term mean at 0.7135, the danger is that EUR/GBP may re-test the all-time high (and weakest ever for sterling) atThu, 29 Oct 2009 13:17:32 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-10-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-10-27.htmlComment: Leading the pack and the one with the neatest price action of all the Yen crosses. Rallying strongly from decent support between 140.00 and 142.00, retracing half of the declines since August. This, combined with the daily Ichimoku ‘cloud’ (note how much bigger it gets over the coming month) should send this pair down again, hopefully quickly. Though moving averages have crossed to bullish, these should provide resistance to the Lagging Span so watch for an interim top to form aroundTue, 27 Oct 2009 15:26:34 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-10-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-10-22.htmlComment: Last week’s ‘bearish engulfing’ candle with a ‘spike high’ at its top suggests that an immediate meltdown in the value of sterling has been postponed, and maybe averted for the rest of this year. However, as we remain just a whisker away from the all-time low on the Bank of England’s Trade Weighted basis there is absolutely no room for complacency. While above 0.8400, two standard deviations from the equivalent long term mean at 0.7135, the danger is that EUR/GBP will be drawn toThu, 22 Oct 2009 12:45:16 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-10-22.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-10-13.htmlComment: Deadly dull for much of 2008 and then we see the biggest ever gyrations between these two Scandinavian currencies since the Euro’s introduction. This year’s retreat from an all-time high at 1.3200 ended at the 61% Fibonacci retracement with a small ‘double bottom’. Bullish momentum has increased over the last three weeks to almost the highest on record, allowing prices to close above a good-sized weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’. A monthly close above 1.2500 should send the Norwegian kroneTue, 13 Oct 2009 10:26:43 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-10-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-09-22.v02.htmlComment: Making its way up towards our medium term target which remains at 0.8800/0.8900, while trailing the Kiwi since May; a break above 0.9000 on a first attempt is unlikely. The ultra-long term perspective suggests that last year’s collapse below 0.8000, followed by a 25 cent rally this year, was all some sort of massive ‘extension’ cause by a manic rush through a tiny fire exit. Though overbought bullish momentum is running at some of the higher levels of the previous five years so weTue, 22 Sep 2009 10:35:36 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-09-22.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-09-22.htmlComment: Having comfortably met our extended measured target from ‘triangle’ consolidation (0.7200), what next? The scale and steepness of the rally since March is seen as vindicating our view that the collapse over the twelve months starting in March 2008 was ‘wrong’, caused by an incorrect interpretation of events and an overbought New Zealand dollar. Needless to say Kiwi is overbought today though bullish momentum very strong by historical standards. Once again it is challenging keyTue, 22 Sep 2009 10:33:30 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-09-22.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-08-03.v02.htmlComment: After the massive gyrations in December and January, the like of which we had never seen previously, this currency pair has settled into a wider trading band above the narrow range that held in 2008. So far the range was 8.6000 to 9.1500, above 8.4000 which is one standard deviation from the mean (8.0600) of the last twenty years. We feel the pair should drift lower, to 8.0400 where hesitation is likely. Then down again to 8.0000 and then broadly sideways between here and 8.4000 forMon, 03 Aug 2009 14:25:50 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-08-03.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-08-03.htmlComment: The massive gyrations that kicked off in October last year, and which sent at-the-money implied volatility to a new record high (triple its mean) and the krona to its weakest ever against the Euro (11.8000), appear to have come to an equally dramatic (and to us surprising) end. Last week’s break and close below a good-sized weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’, below the ‘neckline’ of a huge, complex ‘head-and-shoulders’ top, under Fibonacci 50% retracement support, confirms the completion of anMon, 03 Aug 2009 14:09:31 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-08-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-07-22.htmlComment: The corrective rally from last year’s record low at 1.3450 took prices a lot further, and continued for a lot longer, than we had imagined. It did eventually peak at 1.5600, just above the 1.5400 area we had specified, selling off hard between March and May. Since June prices have been consolidating above trendline support in a small inverted ‘flag’ formation. It now looks set to break below the weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’, prodded by a raft of other currencies which are also gainingWed, 22 Jul 2009 09:38:36 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-07-22.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-07-21.v03.htmlComment: Textbook stuff as we move down towards our measured target which remains at parity. The corrective bounce that started at 1.0785 in the first week of June saw record futures volume, six times the norm for 1980-2000, suggesting heavy speculative US activity. The move was capped by Fibonacci retracement in the middle of a wide Ichimoku ‘cloud’ at 1.1725 and now we are tumbling back down to trendline support. Though not quite at May’s extreme, bearish momentum is close to its strongestTue, 21 Jul 2009 13:38:15 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-07-21.v03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-07-21.v02.htmlComment: The rally from March’s multi-year low has taken us back to where last year’s excesses began in October, a 50% retracement of the entire move lower starting March 2008 – and a far more dramatic bear market than the 18-month one from March 1997. Price action since June is consolidation in a ‘triangle’ with the latest rally helped along by a widening Ichimoku ‘cloud’. The kiwi is not overbought and bullish momentum should increase on a weekly close above 0.6600, moving averagesTue, 21 Jul 2009 12:56:30 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-07-21.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-07-21.htmlComment: Price action since mid-April can be seen as a very large ‘flag’, understandable consolidation under what had been our first measured target at 0.8200. Note that one standard deviation from the mean since 1984 lies at 0.8155, making this a pivotal area. Retracement support and a large Ichimoku ‘cloud’ have nudged the Aussie higher, resulting in a daily close above the top of the pattern. Exciting for some, maybe, but what is really needed to confirm the next leg of what should beTue, 21 Jul 2009 09:47:57 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-07-21.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-07-14.v02.htmlComment: Having spent the last three months trading above 79.00, after trading below here for four consecutive months (the midpoint of the large trading band established since November) prices look set to break lower, if not this week then by the end of July. The Ichimoku cloud lines suggest the Yen strengthens against the Canadian dollar – taking the cross lower. While we cannot rule out another initial corrective bounce from our pivotal 79.00, rallies are unlikely to move above 84.00 andTue, 14 Jul 2009 08:29:21 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-07-14.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-07-14.htmlComment: Like many other Yen crosses, Swiss-Yen peaked at 91.50 just above the Fibonacci 50% retracement at 90.00. Price action since early May can be seen as a very irregular head-and-shoulders top. Trend line support held on Wednesday and price action since then is a continuation triangle. Moving averages and Ichimoku clouds indicate we are in bear mode and it is just a matter of time before we break pivotal support at 83.00 which happens to be the mid-point of the very large trading band ofTue, 14 Jul 2009 08:20:51 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-07-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-07-09.htmlComment: The rally from a ‘double bottom’ against the record low 55.00 area lasted longer and went higher than we had originally predicted. Nevertheless it has now formed an interim top against Fibonacci resistance and the top of a very large, flat-topped Ichimoku ‘cloud’, the break below immediate trendline support confirming this week. It has found support at the lower edge of the ‘cloud’ and Fibonacci support at 71.00 and is likely to try and hold above here for another week or two. TheThu, 09 Jul 2009 14:03:22 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-07-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-07-08.v02.htmlComment: The Swiss National Bank has made a determined effort to weaken the Swiss franc, spending a fortune to keep it above the Ichimoku ‘cloud’, first in March and then again in June. The reality, however, is that while lifting the pair up off last year’s record low, we are merely establishing a slightly higher trading band with a mean around the psychological 1.5000. Not the first time this safe-haven currency fights its own central bank. Allow for more of the same with prices holdingWed, 08 Jul 2009 14:14:29 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-07-08.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-07-08.htmlComment: Rallying neatly in a ‘channel’ since February and now tumbling below the ‘neckline’ of a small ‘head-and-shoulders’ top. This marks an interim top and prices are likely to hold below here for several months, maybe until year-end. Allow for some hesitation this week and next at trendline support and the lower edge of the Ichimoku ‘cloud’, just ahead of the psychological level at 150.00. Then down to the first measured target at 148.00, where yet more consolidation is likely as manyWed, 08 Jul 2009 14:01:28 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-07-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-06-18.v02.htmlComment: We are almost at the end of Q2 2009 and this currency pair is still trying to stabilise just above the psychological 2.0000 area and ahead of 1.9650 (which is 1.6 Standard Deviations from the mean of the last twenty years). This very slow work is perhaps understandable as it follows 2008’s massive gyrations. A weekly close above recent highs and retracement resistance at 2.1000 should turn momentum decisively bullish, setting off a short squeeze to 2.2000 which is unlikely to yield onThu, 18 Jun 2009 14:06:30 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-06-18.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-06-18.htmlComment: Over the last six months the Euro lost ground against the pound, comfortably meeting our June target at 0.8500 plus an overshoot to 0.8400. Over the next three months allow for some sideways consolidation, probably between 0.8300 and 0.8900, where cautious price swings should see at-the-money implied volatility drift down and hold around 10.00%. In the final quarter of 2009 we expect a drop to 0.8200, maybe a brief test of the 0.8000 area, and we cannot rule out another overshoot toThu, 18 Jun 2009 10:14:35 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-06-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-06-11.htmlComment: Price action since August is seen as a massive, irregular, ‘triangular’-shaped A, B, C-type correction where C is 0.61% the size of A. Despite the highest volatility in at least fifteen years, one-month at-the-money implied hitting a whopping 24.55%, weekly Ichimoku ‘clouds’ have done a good job limiting the downside until three weeks ago. Now we are consolidating neatly under a flat ‘cloud’, testing trendline support, thereby maintaining downside pressure. The US dollar is no longerThu, 11 Jun 2009 14:14:51 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-06-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-05-27.v02.htmlComment: The trend for Euro appreciation against the South Korean Won was established in 2001 and reasserted itself early in 2006; recent events have not altered the technical picture at all. Rather, increased currency volatility from September last year can be seen as ‘triangle/rectangle’ consolidation above trendline support. Price declines since mid-March have been caught at the base of the Ichimoku ‘cloud’ and we look set to break above the top of it. Therefore we now favour a rally backWed, 27 May 2009 13:52:03 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-05-27.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-05-27.htmlComment: Over the last three months the pound has gained as much as 10.00% against some currencies (USD) and lost the same amount against others (NZD); Scandinavian currencies lie in the middle of these extremes. From the lowest price in thirty years at 9.1100, admittedly above 1976’s record low around 8.2000, Sterling is back above very long term support around 9.8000 Norwegian krone. This adds weight to our view that the drop below 9.6000 was an ‘extension’ which culminated in a ‘spike low’.Wed, 27 May 2009 13:18:16 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-05-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-05-14.htmlComment: Alarming price swings since October, almost double the size of anything seen in the last twenty-five years, so that one-month at-the-money implied volatility set a record high at 25.75%. This then retreated considerably, basing ahead of 10.75% which is one standard deviation above the mean since 1995, and looks set to climb again this month. In other words, volatility this year is likely to hold well above the average we have come to expect. The massive ‘quadruple top’ or ‘rectangle’Thu, 14 May 2009 14:27:36 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-05-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-05-13.htmlComment: After dithering for four consecutive weeks at the pivotal 0.7200 area, at last! A weekly close clearly above it confirming a break higher, marking the next step in the rally we expect this year caused by generalised US dollar selling. The Australian dollar is overbought but bullish momentum is stronger than it has been in almost three decades (a neat counterbalance to the bearish pressure on the way down last year). One-month at-the-money implied volatility appears to be basingWed, 13 May 2009 11:17:06 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-05-13.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-03-03.v02.htmlComment: Having spent the last nine years trading fairly neatly around a mean at 253.00 the Hungarian forint has weakened from a record 227.29 per Euro to February’s weakest ever at 309.85 – a whopping 36.00%. There is probably worse to come as chart patterns currently show no signs of pressure abating let alone reversal signals. A sustained break above 310.00 suggests a move to our next measured target at 335.00. A weekly close below 295.00 eases immediate upside pressure but only belowTue, 03 Mar 2009 14:50:31 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-03-03.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-03-03.htmlComment: In a world of catastrophic losses, failing giants and clueless politicians everyone and anything can be the next target. Competitive currency devaluations might be the latest cure-all idea, Asia, Eastern Europe and some Latin American ones losing between 5% and 22% versus the US dollar so far this year. Mexico’s currency took a tumble starting October last year, pressure building in this massive ‘right-angled triangle’ pattern since then. Having broken higher to its weakest ever, theTue, 03 Mar 2009 11:44:27 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-03-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-02-19.htmlComment: The rally from last year’s record low at 1.3450 has taken prices a lot further, and continued for a lot longer, than we had imagined. Nevertheless there is no doubt it is a corrective move, stalling against 38% Fibonacci retracement in November last year and again this week. There is a chance that we shall form a ‘double top’ here signalling the start of a long move lower. This would tally with our view in other currencies where we favour renewed generalised US dollar weakness thisThu, 19 Feb 2009 16:17:55 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-02-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-02-18.v02.htmlComment: Retreated quickly from a near-record high at 1.7500, back inside the 1.4800 to 1.6400 sort of range that held for most of last year. We feel this currency pair is most likely to consolidate randomly, in a series of complex messy moves, inside here again this year. So far it has managed to hold above 1.5600 but a series of descending highs and a fairly thick Ichimoku ‘cloud’ suggests an imminent drop to 1.5400 and then more slowly to the 1.5000 area. Strategy: Sell Euros and buyWed, 18 Feb 2009 14:22:33 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-02-18.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-02-18.htmlComment: The rollercoaster ride continues, keeping one-month at-the-money implied volatility over double the mean of the last decade, as we hover nervously above October’s all-time low at 1.4300 (and record ever against the Deutschemark equivalent). As ‘flight to quality’ intensifies this month we feel that a re-test of this point is imminent, a sustained break below 1.4700 prompting another good clear-out. Below that would be too scary for words, measured targets suggesting 1.3500/1.3600.Wed, 18 Feb 2009 11:34:21 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-02-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-02-10.v04.htmlComment: Last year’s collapse from 2007’s ‘head-and-shoulders’ top saw the Yen strengthen back to where it had been in 1999, just shy of its strongest ever which was 1995’s 57.75. Since late October it has been trying to draw a line in the sand, working in a right-angled ‘triangle’ formation with January’s drop to a low at 68.40 seen as an ‘extension’. Unfortunately we cannot rule out another one of these until wemanage a weekly close above 77.25. Until then tread with care, buying dips, forTue, 10 Feb 2009 15:27:49 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-02-10.v04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-02-10.v03.htmlComment: Since collapsing from a fifteen-year high at 22.000, this currency pair has been forming a downward-sloping ‘wedge’ formation which was broken this month. We feel that this year’s low at 12.170, ahead of 2000’s all-time low at 11.130, will hold for many months and probably for the whole of 2009. At the moment we favour a squeeze to the 15.000 area followed by sideways consolidation in an as yet to be established broad band. Strategy: Buy at 13.675/13.000; stop below 12.000. Add toTue, 10 Feb 2009 14:51:15 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-02-10.v03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-02-10.v02.htmlComment: Deadly dull in 2007 and then we see the biggest ever gyrations between these two Scandinavian currencies since the Euro’s introduction. Last month’s close above 1.1975, one standard deviation for the mean since 1999, suggests the Norwegian krone will strengthen against its Swedish counterpart and move quickly higher to our long-held target at 1.2500/1.2600. Above here and things would be scary indeed. Strategy: Buy at 1.2125, adding to 1.2000; stop well below 1.1800. TargetTue, 10 Feb 2009 11:35:33 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-02-10.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-02-10.htmlComment: Having called the exact top to this currency pair (with a downside target at 76.00), it is perhaps presumptuous and arrogant of us to now call for a bottom – but that is what we are doing in most Yen crosses. We have a potential massive ‘double bottom’ around the 76.00 area which should set up for a squeeze up to 86.00 at the very least. After that we may see prices establishing a very broad sideways trading band. However, we will also not rule out a squeeze to 91.00 some time thisTue, 10 Feb 2009 10:03:56 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-02-10.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-02-05.htmlComment: The new record low at 1.5100 last month should mark a new important point for this currency pair and the start of a multi-year, many-waved rally. Sterling became as oversold as it did in 1992 and momentum has some way to go before it turns decidedly bullish. Today we have edged above January’s high and look set to test the top of the Ichimoku ‘cloud’. A weekly close above 1.7000 should add a little more upside pressure for a squeeze to 1.8500/1.8700 where some consolidation is likely.Thu, 05 Feb 2009 17:11:49 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-02-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-01-29.htmlComment: Sterling and the Australian dollar have been battling it out to see which will be bottom of the pile, causing unprecedented massive gyrations, bigger even than those in 1992. We feel that this month prices have been trying to stabilise just above the psychological 2.0000 area and ahead of 1.9650 (which is 1.6 Standard Deviations from the mean of the last twenty years). Our short term target is 2.2000 and medium term 2.3000. Strategy: Attempt small longs at 2.1300, adding to 2.1000;Thu, 29 Jan 2009 14:24:48 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-01-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-01-27.htmlComment: Last year the Canadian dollar backed up an awful lot more than we had expected, neither the best performing major currency (that title goes to the Yen), nor the worst (arguably the South Korean won). Over the last three months it has displayed what can only be described as unusual and alarming price swings, almost double the size of anything seen in the last twenty-five years, so that one-month at-the-money implied volatility set a record high at 25.75%. Despite political turmoilTue, 27 Jan 2009 11:49:19 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-01-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-01-22.htmlComment: Having called a bottom to the Czech koruna’s gains against the Euro too often over the last nine years, we had to get it right eventually! The whole of the decline is a massive A, B, C-type move where C=A. Trendline resistance has stalled the strong bounce that started late July, and though terribly overbought bullish momentum is still close to record high. We favour some consolidation under 28.000 over the coming month, maybe three, prior to another rally to the psychological area atThu, 22 Jan 2009 15:39:06 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-01-22.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-01-21.htmlComment: After trading pretty much between 9.0000 and 9.5000 for the last eight years, oh my goodness! The Swedish krona soared to 11.4250, its weakest ever against the Euro, down 41% from its strongest 8.0400 of May 2000. Needless to say one-month at-the-money implied volatility also set a new record at 20.00%. Though we are still above trendline and Ichimoku ‘cloud’ support, we feel the rally is over and that a slow move lower is imminent, dragging implied volatility with it. Over the nextWed, 21 Jan 2009 17:49:45 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-01-21.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-01-20.htmlComment: Just when we wrote off the Norwegian krone as too boring for words, it suffers its most dramatic losses ever, hitting a record high at 10.1700, and one-month at-the-money implied volatility rockets to 22.65%. Having retraced half of this move since Christmas, it looks as though it will consolidate above 9.0000 for another month or so. Rallies are likely to be capped between 9.6000 and 9.8000 and are seen as a selling opportunity for an eventual drop to 8.4000, one standard deviationTue, 20 Jan 2009 15:08:09 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2009-01-20.html