http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-12-21.htmlComment: Benchmark ten-year Gilts, Bunds, Canadian and US TNotes all yielding an eye-popping 2.00% while more dubious sovereign issuers see theirs swing wildly between 5.00% and 13.00% (Greece today allegedly 33.5%). We feel there is still more to go for as yield curves flatten and credit spreads widen. Short Sterling futures continue to consolidate under record highs, as has been the case for front month ones for over two years, red contracts for four months or more. This front March contractWed, 21 Dec 2011 09:23:05 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-12-21.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-12-16.htmlComment: This Eurodollar contract retreated from trendline resistance and the daily Ichimoku ‘cloud’ as expected, but a bit more slowly than we had hoped because momentum is currently bullish. futures are hovering unsteadily at last week’s levels, right in the middle of this year’s bands, and could burst either way; we worry that increasingly thin markets between now and year-end could turn chaotic. The line of least resistance is still probably to the downside. Strategy: Sell 99.350; stopFri, 16 Dec 2011 08:19:12 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-12-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-12-14.htmlComment: ‘Risk-off’ mode again and hitting an ever greater number of sectors and geographic regions, including Eastern Europe and the BRICs. Even bigger guesstimates of how much capital banks need to raise and sources of funding drying up. The only way is ‘shrink to fit’ with very large dollops of central bank loans. Short Sterling futures’ latest bounce has been capped by Ichimoku ‘clouds’ and retracement resistance. We expect another drop into year-end. Strategy: Sell at 98.860, adding toWed, 14 Dec 2011 09:26:28 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-12-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-12-09.htmlComment: Eurozone banks snap up $50B of the new swap facility, get another rate cut and a new Euro three-year lifeline from the ECB, and still sovereign bond spreads are eye-wateringly wide. Eurodollar futures are hovering unsteadily at last week’s levels, right in the middle of this year’s bands, and could burst either way; we worry that increasingly thin markets between now and year-end could turn chaotic. The line of least resistance is still probably to the downside. Strategy: StrategyFri, 09 Dec 2011 09:15:23 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-12-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-12-08.htmlComment: UK two and three-year swap rates down abruptly over the last fortnight, US ones too, taking five-year Gilt yields to a new record low at 0.87%. Short Sterling futures have bounced in line with these, red months more so than front ones, dwindling open interest here and across the board suggesting short-covering. Nevertheless all aspects of this daily Ichimoku ‘cloud’ chart still point to a short position. Patience. Strategy: Sell at 98.940; stop above 99.000. First target 98.840, thenThu, 08 Dec 2011 09:55:46 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-12-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-12-02.htmlComment: Four years plus into the financial crisis and central bankers have at last realised that banks cannot fund themselves on the interbank market at the official interest rate – dollars or any other major currency for that matter. Swap rates may have been cut in half, but 50 basis points over OIS is nevertheless a penal rate of interest compared to those with access to retail deposits. Eurodollar futures have reversed November’s slump but have only retraced half the declines from August’sFri, 02 Dec 2011 09:25:51 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-12-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-11-30.htmlComment: Interesting to see Gilts yielding just less than German government paper as they did briefly in 2009 and before that in 2000, both times of financial crisis. Short Sterling and Euribor futures contracts between zero and 20 pips apart despite a 75 basis point spread in Central Bank target rates, as the former rally from this month’s lows. This has messed up the charts a little, postponing the drop in prices we continue to favour, yet all aspects of this daily Ichimoku ‘cloud’ chartWed, 30 Nov 2011 09:07:41 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-11-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-11-25.htmlComment: Credit spreads widening out again, much of the Eurozone at extremes and US five-year CDX as wide as it was in May 2009. TBond yields are leading the way to a flatter US curve, TNotes yield just 90 basis points over JGBs and twenty under Bunds; these trends are expected to continue. All Eurodollar contracts are down about 50 basis points from the summer’s highest prices, dragged by many worldwide banks who are struggling to fund their dollar books – and the threat of yet moreFri, 25 Nov 2011 09:24:40 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-11-25.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-11-23.htmlComment: Credit spreads widening again, Euro five-year ITraxx at 200 basis points almost a record. Long-dated Gilts, seen as ‘safe’ relative to a lot of other sovereign debt, have outperformed their German and US counterparts to the tune of about 50 basis points over the last two months, Index-linkers likewise and Perpetuals at record low yields. Conversely the front month Short Sterling contract is at its lowest price since June 2009 (98.900) though the Base rate remains at 0.50% where it hasWed, 23 Nov 2011 08:57:36 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-11-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-11-18.htmlComment: Just 25 basis points separate this front March contract from green March but what matters is that over the last fortnight all contracts have taken a hit, two-year swaps at their highest since May as investors realise that US banks are not immune to global crises; it is also linked to problems Eurozone banks have borrowing dollars. The US Treasury yield curve has flattened slightly again, taking five-year paper to its narrowest spread over two-year since January 2008, and we feel thereFri, 18 Nov 2011 09:12:57 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-11-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-11-16.htmlComment: Gilt yields at or close to their lowest ever, outperforming Bunds and US Treasuries over the last month, and the curve still has room to flatten. Conversely many Short Sterling contracts trade at their lowest price in six months or so as sovereign and banking woes grind on and on; these also have further to fall. Front Dec has broken below, and is consolidating neatly under, what had been important support. It is not oversold and bearish momentum has increased, all aspects of thisWed, 16 Nov 2011 09:46:09 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-11-16.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-11-11.htmlComment: Bankers and investors are learning the hard way to distinguish between borrowers who can be expected to repay and those that might - or might not. Credit spreads have widened again in many instruments, US TBills yield zero, and Libor rates are nonsense. To produce dollars Eurozone banks can borrow Euros at 1.25% from the ECB; end of. Eurodollar futures edging very marginally lower, trading between 50 and 80 basis points out over the next two years, and we feel they have further to go.Fri, 11 Nov 2011 09:01:53 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-11-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-11-09.htmlComment: Fifty-year Index-Linked Gilts at record low yields, undated Consols and War Loan at their lowest yields in many, many decades, ten and thirty-year Gilts likewise as long-dated paper has elements that appeal to some canny investors; the yield curve has further flattening to do. This front Dec Short Sterling is still clinging to support but note that March12 and red Dec ones are trading at their lowest prices since the summer. This contract is not oversold and momentum is just bearish,Wed, 09 Nov 2011 10:02:05 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-11-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-11-08.v02.htmlComment: It may have taken the best part of this year but the Euro eventually formed a base against the 24.000 area for the Czech koruna, ahead of 23.200 which is two standard deviations below the very long term mean at 31.340, in turn above the record low at 22.860 of July 2008. It has broken trendline resistance and the top of the weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’, and also above a trendline going all the way back to April 1999. So while the move is small and contained at the moment its implicationsTue, 08 Nov 2011 12:35:45 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-11-08.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-11-08.htmlComment: The Hungarian forint has weakened significantly since the summer, off about 19% against the embattled Euro and –27.7% against the US dollar, at its long term mean against the latter and as close as it’s been to the record high 317.50 of April 2009 against the former. It operates as a managed float, the current exchange rate regime introduced in 2001 where the upper limit is 324.00. Weekly and monthly closes above 310.00 suggest a test of its limit and probably a subsequentTue, 08 Nov 2011 11:43:00 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-11-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-11-04.htmlComment: Absolutely no money changing hands in the cash market as bankers belatedly realise unsecured funding might be a thing of the past. Eurodollar futures dead, trading around 50 basis points out for the next two years. October’s bounce ought to be capped by the daily Ichimoku ‘cloud’, trendline resistance pushing this March12 contract back down to 99.350 with a weekly close below first support at 99.400 nudging things along. Then we continue to favour a drop through first 38% FibonacciFri, 04 Nov 2011 08:53:49 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-11-04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-11-02.htmlComment: Undated Consols yielding 4.00%, the lowest yield since being issued in 1926, and still banks continue to lend and pretend, as is the case with June 2012 Euribor futures which are now priced the same as Short Sterling ones, all of which are trading under 99.00 and August’s record highs despite Base Rate being 0.50%. This front Dec contract is moving at a snail’s pace, a series of slightly lower highs, and all aspects of this daily Ichimoku ‘cloud’ chart continue to suggest a shortWed, 02 Nov 2011 09:55:14 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-11-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-10-28.htmlComment: The US Treasury yield curve steepened this week as traders moved into ‘risk-on’ mode as EU leaders attempt to sort out the Eurozone’s woes. Eurodollar futures have seen a small bounce from this year’s lows, March12 back just inside the sideways band established in May, while Libor rates continue to creep higher. The three-month TED yield spread at 41 basis points is probing the critical 40-50 area, above which it has often exploded over the last thirty years in times of bankingFri, 28 Oct 2011 09:28:09 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-10-28.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-10-27.htmlComment: Since the Euro’s introduction in January 1999 it has traded around a mean of 4.0200 Polish zlotys. Currently 4.3500 it is one standard deviation above its mean, just under the critical 4.5000 above which it has traded only in times of extreme stress in the financial system. Therefore we shall hope it can retreat from this month’s high at 4.4375 and start holding below 4.3500 for the next three months. This should allow it to reverse some of this year’s rally, maybe back down toThu, 27 Oct 2011 12:35:38 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-10-27.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-10-26.htmlComment: Gilts of all maturities yield about 50 basis points less than French OAT’s, another irritant for President Sarkozy; the former are also expected to narrow their yield spreads over German and US paper. All Short Sterling contracts are trading under August’s record highs and declining volume and open interest (sub-two million and lowest in ages bar Jan09 and Jan11) suggest de-leveraging continues – the flip-side of the coin where Briton’s are spending less and saving more. This frontWed, 26 Oct 2011 09:18:23 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-10-26.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-10-21.v02.htmlComment: A tiny ‘head-and-shoulders’ top has been forming over the last five weeks with a ‘neckline’ at the 0.8900 level (where we had been watching for signs of topping) and a high at 0.9319. This latter level also happens to coincide with the lower edge of the weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’ and is a 50% retracement of the steep declines from June 2010 to August’s record low at 0.7068. Therefore we feel that an interim high is in place and that the next move will be a drop for the US dollar againstFri, 21 Oct 2011 14:16:27 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-10-21.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-10-21.htmlComment: All quiet on the Western front as US Treasuries hold at current levels though front month Eurodollar futures are trading at their lowest price since December (99.525 from a high at 99.750 in June, since when open interest has declined steadily across the board and especially in the front March contract). Front and red months are trading under this summer’s horizontal band, consolidating neatly in what is seen as the first step lower in what ought to be a slow descending series; LiborFri, 21 Oct 2011 08:22:26 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-10-21.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-10-19.htmlComment: It’s taken way too long but at last Bank of England governor Mervyn King said last night, ‘four years into the crisis it is surely time to accept that the underlying problem is one of solvency not liquidity – solvency of banks and solvency of governments’. We notice he had nothing to say about UK CPI which reached a record high +5.2% Y/Y yesterday. Long-dated Gilt yields are moving towards those of their US and German counterparts while ten-year should trade just 45 basis points overWed, 19 Oct 2011 08:33:46 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-10-19.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-10-14.htmlComment: This week’s countertrend back up in Treasury yields has had zero effect on the Eurodollar money market, though Libid rates continue edging higher as the stigma associated with paying over the odds wanes. Note also that the spread between the lowest and highest bids for three-month money is vast (six fold) but is merely a hypothetical construct, not a real market, as only pitiful amounts change hands. Front and red month Eurodollar contracts are trading under this summer’s trading bandFri, 14 Oct 2011 08:15:15 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-10-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-10-12.htmlComment: Yields on Treasuries and swaps backed up a little this week, the short end leading, as we ponder the myriad problems in the financial sector, not just banks and sovereign debt but insurers and pension funds too, the very long end sheltered somewhat by the authorities’ QE programmes. Red Short Sterling contracts have moved in tandem trading about 40 basis points below September’s highs, front months more contained. Open interest down 45% from 2007’s peak suggests a very different moneyWed, 12 Oct 2011 08:22:41 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-10-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-10-11.v02.htmlComment: Slumping to the bottom of the weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’ as we break down from the ‘channel’ and ‘rectangle’, taking bearish momentum to its strongest in well over a year and likewise one-month at-the-money implied volatility. While a sharp drop, it is much smaller than the one of 2008 suggesting far fewer have had to clear out of a ‘carry trade’. Price action of the last three weeks is a sort of ‘goblet/wine glass’ shape suggesting a new interim low has been found ahead of 61% FibonacciTue, 11 Oct 2011 13:45:39 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-10-11.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-10-11.htmlComment: The strongest bullish momentum in well over two years has forced the US dollar above the well-established ‘channel’ and through the weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’ for the first time since May 2009. It also put the greenback at its most overbought against the Canadian dollar since October 2008. Stalling at 1.0658 last week hints at over exuberance and we shall be watching for better signs of a reversal during the rest of this month. Eventually the secular trend to a stronger loonie versus theTue, 11 Oct 2011 13:43:27 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-10-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-10-07.htmlComment: Problems at the short end of yield curves, through to five-year Treasuries, this week underline just how difficult things are when one pushes at the edges of the possible. Credit spreads are hovering just under recent highs, a hopeful sign the optimists have latched on to, but remain terribly high and unsustainable in the medium and long term. Front month Eurodollar contracts are trading close to their lowest price in a year, red ones dropped a notch below the ranges of the last eightFri, 07 Oct 2011 08:27:55 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-10-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-10-05.htmlComment: Record UK Index-Linked, long-dated and Perpetual Gilts yielding their lowest since about the 1940’s, the yield curve flattening as expected, investors voting with their feet regardless of what bankers and those in charge say. The other side of the same coin are widening credit spreads in many currencies and instruments such as Credit Default Swaps, iTraxx and corporate yield spreads. Short Sterling contracts are hovering quietly around 99.000, consolidating neatly under August’sWed, 05 Oct 2011 08:21:50 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-10-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-09-30.htmlComment: Many credit spreads at their widest this year, some as high as they were in March 2009, as investors at last begin to grasp the intractable problems of the financial sector. Other than at the short end, German and US Treasuries yield pretty much the same as people choose to shelter here, as they have done in Japan for over a decade. Eurodollar futures have remained surprisingly calm, three-month Libor fixing at 0.372% and a theoretical construct, while some are paying four times thatFri, 30 Sep 2011 08:00:58 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-09-30.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-09-29.v02.htmlComment: At the risk of sounding as though we are ‘crying wolf’, erratic price action since May is another potential ‘broadening top’. Coupled with the fact that over the last twenty-five years the Australian dollar has found it difficult to hold above parity to its Canadian namesake because this is over one standard deviation (0.9950) above the long term mean (0.9250); only in 1994-1996 were moves above here sustained for over a month. Therefore we are now looking for a new interim top, aThu, 29 Sep 2011 14:51:05 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-09-29.v02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-09-29.htmlComment: After a fifth consecutive weekly decline dipping to 116.80, under the previous record low of 118.80 set in January 2009, as creaking financial structures elicit the same knee-jerk reactions so that all yen crosses are close to their lows of 2009. Ironic as the pound is this month’s best-performing currency behind the yen. Trading two standard deviations below the mean of the last decade (182.00), though above the 40-year mean regression at 107.00. We view this latest decline as yetThu, 29 Sep 2011 14:47:53 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-09-29.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-09-28.htmlComment: UK interest rates have been relatively stable this month so that desperate investors piling into German and US Treasuries have widened yield spreads on Gilts. Interest in the British ultra-long end continues, yesterday’s new 3.75% 2052 selling for a record low yield of 3.758% while 4.00% Consols at 4.225% yield less than they did at the time of Lehman’s collapse. More worrying credit spreads are widening, BBA-rated over ten-year 340 basis points close to their highest in thirty yearsWed, 28 Sep 2011 08:19:36 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-09-28.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-09-23.htmlComment: The iTraxx Crossover Index is as high as it was in October 2008 while the cost of insuring five-year Euro debt is at a record high, and no wonder. The US Treasury curve has flattened significantly (twos/thirty-year by 50 basis points in the last week alone) as investors learn to appreciate the price/yield implications of long-dated paper. Eurodollar futures have remained surprisingly calm compared to the turmoil elsewhere, but note that front month contracts are trading a notch underFri, 23 Sep 2011 08:39:55 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-09-23.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-09-22.htmlComment: A fifth consecutive weekly decline dipping to 117.40 today, under the record low of 118.80 set in January 2009, as creaking financial structures elicit the same knee-jerk reactions so that all yen crosses are close to their lows of 2009. Ironic as the pound is this week’s best-performing currency behind the yen. Sterling is almost as oversold against the yen as it was then but bearish momentum a fraction of what it was at the time. Trading two standard deviations below the mean of theThu, 22 Sep 2011 11:00:29 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-09-22.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-09-21.htmlComment: Though German and US Treasuries are currently outperforming Gilts, some in the UK are taking a closer look at very long-dated paper, possibly because these are some of the very few issues that are trading under par; we continue to expect the yield curve to flatten, twos/tens to 100 basis points and 60 over five-year. Short Sterling contracts are hovering around 99.000, consolidating neatly under contract highs set last month, declining open interest since July hinting that many areWed, 21 Sep 2011 08:05:30 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-09-21.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-09-15.htmlComment: The US Treasury curve has flattened significantly since July and the long end still has a little room to manoeuvre. Eurodollar futures’ spreads over Fed Funds widened this month and might do so for another month or so as we face another dose of banking jitters, the ‘rooftop’ type pattern in this contract hinting at a sudden slide to 99.300/99.250. Potential year-end pressures will impact the Dec 2011 contract most, capped at 99.620. Very good volume in August, and almost record weeklyThu, 15 Sep 2011 08:32:28 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-09-15.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-09-14.htmlComment: The British Treasury yield curve is expected to flatten, twos/tens to 100 basis points with little room for lower rates at the short end and lots of room at the ultra-long end. Two-year Gilts yielding around 50 basis points since August, the same as the Base Rate, while three-month Libor is offered closer to 90 reflecting some semblance of the true cost of money. Therefore many Short Sterling contracts are hovering around 99.000 while green ones rallied to new record highs as theyWed, 14 Sep 2011 08:07:20 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-09-14.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-09-09.htmlComment: With the short end of the US Treasury curve anchored at record lows close to zero, only the long end has any wiggle room, dominating the slope of the yield curve. Benchmark five-year yields should inch down to 50 basis points, ten-year to 125 over two-year, eventually dragging thirty-year to 105 basis points over tens. Eurodollar futures should trade sideways for the foreseeable future, roughly between 99.400 and 99.650 for front and red contracts, veering between fear of bank failureFri, 09 Sep 2011 07:52:05 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-09-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-09-07.v02.htmlComment: August turned out to be even more scary than we had warned and September has gone off with a bang as moves by the Swiss National Bank saw them manage to devalue their currency by a massive 10.00% in a matter of minutes. Technically price action over this period might turn out to be a large inverse ‘head-and-shoulders’ base which has already retraced 61% of the drop since April. Zero follow-through is rather worrying but as all aspects of this weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’ chart point toWed, 07 Sep 2011 13:46:33 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/technical-analysis-currencies/2011-09-07.v02.html