Comment: After the massive gyrations in December and January, the like of which we had never seen previously, this currency pair has settled into a wider trading band above the narrow range that held in 2008. So far the range was 8.6000 to 9.1500, above 8.4000 which is one standard deviation from the mean (8.0600) of the last twenty years. We feel the pair should drift lower, to 8.0400 where hesitation is likely. Then down again to 8.0000 and then broadly sideways between here and 8.4000 for months.
A weekly close above 9.2000 would force us to adjust and review.
