Comment: The rally from March’s multi-year low has taken us back to where last year’s excesses began in October, a 50% retracement of the entire move lower starting March 2008 – and a far more dramatic bear market than the 18-month one from March 1997. Price action since June is consolidation in a ‘triangle’ with the latest rally helped along by a widening Ichimoku ‘cloud’. The kiwi is not overbought and bullish momentum should increase on a weekly close above 0.6600, moving averages confirming the next leg up to 0.6900/0.7000. An ‘extension’ to 0.7200 is also highly likely prior to a period of correction and consolidation.
A weekly close below 0.6200 forces us to review and adjust.
