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Six month FX view
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Six month FX view
Thu, Jun 29 2006, 13:35 GMT
by Nicole Elliott
Six Month Outlook for GBP
Comment: Having wasted so much time over the last twelve months trading randomly around $1.7600, Cable played ‘catch-up’ putting in a stellar performance these last four weeks. The move looks slightly overdone so we feel it will now move into a period of consolidation around $1.9000. This should last at least a week, maybe up to three months. At the moment we favour a series of fairly big swings between $1.8400 and $1.9400, roughly similar to price action from January to May 2005. Very late this year or maybe in 2007 we expect it to squeeze to $2.0000.A weekly close below 1.8200 seriously postpones all of the above.
Six Month Outlook for EUR
Comment: Having wasted so much time last year flip-flopping either side of 1.2100 the Euro has at last woken up to the fact that the very long term trend is still for generalised US dollar weakness. The Euro is rather overbought at the moment so we favour consolidation around 1.2900 for another month or so, say in a band roughly between 1.2600 and 1.3200. Then on up again to re-test the all-time high at 1.3670 and eventually to new all-time highs where 1.4000 is a realistic target. Then more consolidation below here followed by even higher highs in 2007.A monthly close below 1.1700 would force us to review.
Six Month Outlook for EUR/JPY
Comment: For three consecutive years EUR/JPY has been struggling with resistance around 140.00. Some time this quarter we should rally to 145.00 and the psychological level at 150.00 later this year where some consolidation is likely. Very late in 2006 we shall allow for a squeeze up to the October 1998 high at 164.00.A monthly close below 137.00 would force us to adjust.
Published on Fri, Jun 30 2006, 07:46 GMT
Archive
- Six month FX view
Published On Tue, Nov 13 2007, 16:01 GMT - Three and six-month FX view
Published On Fri, Nov 10 2006, 11:27 GMT - Six month FX view
Published On Thu, Jun 29 2006, 08:35 GMT
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Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
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