http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/quarterly-technical-analysis/http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/images/fxstreet-provider-logo1-en.gif7http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/quarterly-technical-analysis/2011-10-03.htmlQuarterly Outlook for EUR Comment: September a great disappointment as the Euro collapses from a high at 1.4550 calling into doubt the large potential ‘flag’ formation and retracing half of the steady rally of 2010 and 2011. Because we are still well within normal retracement parameters we shall be watching to see whether the large rising weekly Ichimoku ‘cloud’ will stem the decline, probably slowly, over the next two months. Until it can start holding comfortably above 1.3600 there is noMon, 03 Oct 2011 12:44:56 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/quarterly-technical-analysis/2011-10-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/quarterly-technical-analysis/2011-07-11.htmlQuarterly Outlook for EUR Comment: The Euro got within a whisker of the psychological 1.5000 level (June high 1.4940) as expected and is now consolidating under here in a large ‘triangle’ above Fibonacci retracement support. Considering the travails of Eurozone sovereign debt it is displaying no signs of stress, just looking very slightly top-heavy. Therefore we shall allow another month or three of work under 1.5000 prior to resuming its medium and long term bull trend. As for downside dipsMon, 11 Jul 2011 16:18:54 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/quarterly-technical-analysis/2011-07-11.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/quarterly-technical-analysis/2011-04-05.htmlQuarterly Outlook for EUR Comment: The rally since mid-January has been steeper than we expected and has taken many by surprise; it also underlines the fact that sub-1.3000 the Euro is ‘cheap’ against the dollar. It is now testing long term ‘channel’ resistance just ahead of pivotal resistance at 1.4500 - the Deutschemark never managed to hold above its equivalent to this level since exchange rates floated. Over the next three months we favour repeated and hopefully cautious testing of thisTue, 05 Apr 2011 12:38:30 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/quarterly-technical-analysis/2011-04-05.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/quarterly-technical-analysis/2011-01-06.htmlQuarterly Outlook for EUR Comment: The second highest futures volume on November’s sell-off underlines how this currency has become everyone’s pet hate. At 1.3040 it is trading one standard deviation below the mean (1.3950) since the financial system started creaking in March 2007. It is also just over the mid-point of the ECB’s Effective Exchange Rate, so obviously not in panic mode despite an extremely precarious sovereign debt situation. Over the next three months we expect it to thrashThu, 06 Jan 2011 11:13:32 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/quarterly-technical-analysis/2011-01-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/quarterly-technical-analysis/2010-10-08.htmlQuarterly Outlook for EUR Comment: Having based at 1.1876 as we had hoped, bullish pressure kicked in taking the Euro to the psychological level at 1.4000. As and when we start holding comfortably above here, prices should then rally to 1.4500 later this quarter, with an overshoot to 1.5000 a distinct possibility. We view price action since July 2008’s record high at 1.6040 as a giant ‘flag’, in itself a massive Wave 4 correction in a very long term bull trend. A monthly close below 1.2650Fri, 08 Oct 2010 18:24:06 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/quarterly-technical-analysis/2010-10-08.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/quarterly-technical-analysis/2010-07-06.htmlQuarterly Outlook for EUR Comment: The Euro is still trying to base around 1.2135, which is half way between its weakest ever (0.8228 October 2000) and its strongest (1.6040 July 2008). Based on the Deutschemark, the mean of the last 25 years lies at 1.1925. On the daily chart we have completed a small inverted ‘head-and-shoulders’ bottom against a low at 1.1876, giving us a first measured target at 1.3100. The messy, worrying basing process will probably drag on all summer, with prices likelyTue, 06 Jul 2010 05:55:07 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/quarterly-technical-analysis/2010-07-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/quarterly-technical-analysis/2010-05-18.htmlQuarterly Outlook for EUR Comment: From a sharp correction lower in Q1 2010, to a plunge in Q2, the Euro is currently everyone’s most hated (and possibly feared) currency. It is currently trading around the lowest levels of November 2008/March 2009 at the height of the financial meltdown; as banking industry woes have not gone away, having been in part offloaded onto the taxpayer, this is perhaps understandable. One must however remember that the problem is global, not limited to the Eurozone.Tue, 18 May 2010 11:06:37 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/quarterly-technical-analysis/2010-05-18.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/quarterly-technical-analysis/2010-04-12.htmlQuarterly Outlook for EUR Comment: As feared, in Q1 2010 the Euro plunged into the narrowing Ichimoku ‘cloud’ spending the last two months struggling below its bottom edge. The ‘spike lows/hammer’ below 61.8% Fibonacci retracement support are seen as small ‘extensions’ which form a ‘double bottom’ suggesting that the correction lower is now over. In order to complete this potential pattern a weekly close above the highs of late February and March at 1.3840 is the bare minimum needed.Mon, 12 Apr 2010 14:28:08 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/quarterly-technical-analysis/2010-04-12.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/quarterly-technical-analysis/2010-01-06.htmlQuarterly Outlook for EUR Comment: Having spent Q4 in our predicted range roughly between 1.4400 and 1.5100, the Euro dropped to 1.4200 on almost record futures volume during the middle two weeks of December. This suggests stale longs bailing out and so it should now base against the 200-day moving average at 1.4250. While contained so far, until the end of this month the risk of a very large ‘spike low’ remains because of the rapidly narrowing Ichimoku ‘cloud’. During February and March theWed, 06 Jan 2010 10:11:07 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/quarterly-technical-analysis/2010-01-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/quarterly-technical-analysis/2009-10-02.htmlQuarterly Outlook for EUR Comment: Having seen the short-squeeze to1.4800 we had predicted for Q3 2009, our view remains unchanged and weshall allow for consolidation between here and the psychological 1.5000until year-end. However, do not expect this phase to hold neatlybetween these two points; on the contrary, random price swings arelikely to become increasingly sharp as the market looks for direction.We are currently pencilling in range roughly between 1.4400 and 1.5100.Again ifFri, 02 Oct 2009 10:20:46 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/quarterly-technical-analysis/2009-10-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/quarterly-technical-analysis/2009-07-06.htmlQuarterly Outlook for EUR Comment: Despite rallying to the increasingly important 1.3800-1.4200 band, as expected, one-month at-the-money implied volatility has been very subdued holding around 14.00%. Perhaps this reflects consensus opinion where the latest poll has views in an increasingly narrow range just below current prices. A weekly close above 1.4200, hopefully this month should set off a short-squeeze to 1.4800/1.5000 where another round of consolidation is due. If anything the EuroMon, 06 Jul 2009 09:44:45 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/quarterly-technical-analysis/2009-07-06.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/quarterly-technical-analysis/2009-04-09.htmlQuarterly Outlook for EUR Comment: Price action so far this year has seen the Euro hold above 1.2400 (not the 1.2500 we said three months ago) while rallies have been more subdued than allowed for. Understandably one-month at-the-money implied volatility slumped from a record high at 28.00% in October to a low at 14.60% today; this should trade between 14.00% and 22.00% this quarter. Prices should now hold above the 1.3000 area setting up for a re-test of the increasingly importantThu, 09 Apr 2009 14:47:28 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/quarterly-technical-analysis/2009-04-09.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/quarterly-technical-analysis/2009-01-07.htmlQuarterly Outlook for EUR Comment: Record one-month at-the-money implied volatility of 28.00% in October, followed by December’s biggest ever monthly rally, adds weight to our view that price action from the all-time high is corrective. This process should continue for the next three months with the Euro holding above 1.2500 all of the time, probably capped at 1.5000. January’s pull back should find an interim base around the 1.3000 area setting up for a subsequent rally to 1.3800, maybeWed, 07 Jan 2009 13:13:38 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/quarterly-technical-analysis/2009-01-07.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/quarterly-technical-analysis/2007-04-03.htmlQuarterly Outlook for EUR Comment: For most of Q1 the Euro consolidated in a large ‘flag’ formation, just as it did between May and November last year. This continuation pattern should lead to another burst higher in the trend to a stronger Euro that started in 2001. The next target is 1.3500 and probably the December 2004 all-time high of 1.3670. We would then expect some consolidation either side of 1.3500, probably at least until the middle of Q2 2007. The difficulty will be in deciding howTue, 03 Apr 2007 08:54:42 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/quarterly-technical-analysis/2007-04-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/quarterly-technical-analysis/2007-01-03.htmlQuarterly Outlook for EUR Comment: The Euro is consolidating in a small ‘flag’ formation, just as it did in a large one between May and November last year. This continuation pattern should lead to another burst higher in the trend to a stronger Euro that started in 2001. The next target is 1.3500 and probably the December 2004 all-time high of 1.3670. We would then expect some consolidation either side of 1.3500, probably until the end of Q1 2007. The difficulty will be in deciding how wideWed, 03 Jan 2007 11:18:35 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/quarterly-technical-analysis/2007-01-03.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/quarterly-technical-analysis/2006-10-02.htmlEUR Comment: Price action over the last five months has been neatly contained in a ‘flag’ formation under the increasingly important 1.3000 level. This continuation pattern should lead to a break higher in Q4, targeting 1.3280 short term, then 1.3475, and probably the 2004 high of 1.3670 very late this year/early 2007. Just because the Euro has not yet met our upside targets yet does not mean that we have to reverse our view. A weekly close clearly below 1.2300 forces us to adjust our view inMon, 02 Oct 2006 14:12:44 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/quarterly-technical-analysis/2006-10-02.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/quarterly-technical-analysis/2006-09-04.htmlEUR Comment: Price action over the last four months has been neatly contained in a ‘flag’ formation under the increasingly important 1.3000 level. This continuation pattern should lead to a break higher in Q3, targeting 1.3280 short term, then 1.3475, and probably the 2004 high of 1.3670 very late in Q3 or in Q4. A weekly close clearly below 1.2300 forces us to adjust our view in terms of its magnitude and timing. GBP Comment: Holding at the upper edge of the broad 1.8000 to 1.9100 tradingMon, 04 Sep 2006 14:38:13 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/quarterly-technical-analysis/2006-09-04.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/quarterly-technical-analysis/2006-07-21.htmlEUR Comment: Over the last three months the Euro has been consolidating between 1.2500 and 1.3000, up a notch from Q1 levels. Lack of direction has, not surprisingly, seen at-the-money implied volatility drop to some of the lowest levels in years. Complacency coupled with a steady Technical picture means that there is an increased chance of a fairly sharp rally over the next three months. This week’s potential ‘hanging man’ candle hints at a short squeeze to 1.3000 in August, followed by aFri, 21 Jul 2006 03:18:22 GMThttp://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk (Mizuho Corporate Bank)http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/quarterly-technical-analysis/2006-07-21.html