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Picking Tops and Bottoms
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USDCAD: Rally Fails at 200 day SMA
Thu, Jan 24 2008, 06:22 GMT
by Jamie Saettele
The rally from .9755 is in 5 waves and is either wave C of an A-B-C rally from .9055 or is just wave 1 of either a larger C or 3. Given that the rally from .9755 is in 5 waves, weakness is expected to at least 1.0124 (1/15 low) -- which is defended by the 38.2% of .9755-1.0378 at 1.0140. We’ll look for an opportunity to get long near this support. Resistance from the 200 day SMA is not shown but is at 1.0337.
Very short term, the USDCAD is in the early stages of what is probably a second wave from 1.0337. Second waves can be deep so this corrective decline could drop towards 1.0000 or lower. But, support is likely strong near the confluence of the 38.2% at 1.0140 and where wave C would equal wave A within the A-B-C decline from 1.0378 at 1.0143.
Published on Thu, Jan 24 2008, 06:28 GMT
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