Intermarket Analysis and Trading
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The charts and analysis from NY close on 11 June 2012. I dont see too many setups as of now but setups may develop over the course of the day. Shared below are the key charts and setups on the hourly with key levels being highlighted. As always choose your pair. Always know the fight you can fight. Dont trade too many pairs and too many markets.This is a much more compact analysis than sunday but always keep a watch on theSunday analysis as key guide to weekly trend analysis
The last time we looked at the dollar index was when I drew those blue arrow lines. That was nearly 5 days back. Prices have patterned itself around those arrow lines as they test the breakout at 82.5 and even 82 in extension. Make no mistake, dollar is powering ahead and with record COT shorts piling in on EUR, only a miracle will save EURUSD from its under target 1.2 zone.
CADJPY is hitting against the cap of confluence at 77.29. Look for a spike and then a settle below 77.22 to see a continuation to 76.55. On the other hand, be ready to flip the trade around if we see a hourly settle above 77.35 for targetting 77.96.
Similar story as CADJPY, EURJPY too getting capped by big confluence zone at 99.53 which is a zone for multiple SMA and BB mid lines. A rally above those levels is your cue to go long with a target of 100.4 zone. The stochastics and vortex are in neutral zone and therefore we wait for the pair to gain momentum on either side and hitch a ride.
ES SPX emini hit its volume hole at 1330 and did a dramatic push through to 1343 but to the utter dissappointment, fell to 1305 on the very same day. That is historic in my view. Once again we are left with watching the action as ES needs to clear the 1330 boundary before we can long the party again.
FBTP (Italian 10 year) bonds opened with a massive gap at 103.15 but closed below 99 which was one of the largest one day falls seen in 2012. The fall has brought the index back at 25,2 lower boundary and will not be surprising to see a traction and a rise back to 100.75 levels with equal reaction seen in EUR USD as well.
EU SCHATZ is well and truly below its mid line. We could see yen pairs rally esp EURJPY if SHCTZ decides to stay below 110.70 levels. on the other hand be prepared to short EURJPY in case SCHATZ rises above 110.70.
CADJPY and EURJPY and now AUDJPY all being capped by imp BB mid lines for the last 3 hours. Go long above 78.9 for a target of 79.6 zone. All yen pairs seem to be under similar lines which is too much of a conincidence. Be patient and you will be rewarded.
The AUDUSD charts look inviting as the pair rests on the mid BB 25,2 on the daily. Dips to .9819cannot be ruled outand hence exercising caution is the game. If the pair can floor it here then we are talking of levels of 1.0088 and then 1.0357 levels. on the daily charts.
On the hourly, AUDUSD is capped at .9915 by the 100 BB and the 25 BB mid lines but be prepared to go long above these levels for a go at .9980 levels and 1.007 in extension. Vortex has a possitive crossover while stochastics is in neutral zone. All in all, a prime candidate for your watchlist.
This is exactly what I would have liked VIX to do after its violation of the 200 MA. It dipped back to 20 levels before mounting another assault. I may be wrong here but see the rising trend line being supported by the 25,2 BB mid line? Well if VIX is heading higher then this is where you need to long VIX with a stop below 20.
Mark
Captial3x.com
The last time we looked at the dollar index was when I drew those blue arrow lines. That was nearly 5 days back. Prices have patterned itself around those arrow lines as they test the breakout at 82.5 and even 82 in extension. Make no mistake, dollar is powering ahead and with record COT shorts piling in on EUR, only a miracle will save EURUSD from its under target 1.2 zone.CADJPY is hitting against the cap of confluence at 77.29. Look for a spike and then a settle below 77.22 to see a continuation to 76.55. On the other hand, be ready to flip the trade around if we see a hourly settle above 77.35 for targetting 77.96.Similar story as CADJPY, EURJPY too getting capped by big confluence zone at 99.53 which is a zone for multiple SMA and BB mid lines. A rally above those levels is your cue to go long with a target of 100.4 zone. The stochastics and vortex are in neutral zone and therefore we wait for the pair to gain momentum on either side and hitch a ride.ES SPX emini hit its volume hole at 1330 and did a dramatic push through to 1343 but to the utter dissappointment, fell to 1305 on the very same day. That is historic in my view. Once again we are left with watching the action as ES needs to clear the 1330 boundary before we can long the party again.FBTP (Italian 10 year) bonds opened with a massive gap at 103.15 but closed below 99 which was one of the largest one day falls seen in 2012. The fall has brought the index back at 25,2 lower boundary and will not be surprising to see a traction and a rise back to 100.75 levels with equal reaction seen in EUR USD as well.EU SCHATZ is well and truly below its mid line. We could see yen pairs rally esp EURJPY if SHCTZ decides to stay below 110.70 levels. on the other hand be prepared to short EURJPY in case SCHATZ rises above 110.70.CADJPY and EURJPY and now AUDJPY all being capped by imp BB mid lines for the last 3 hours. Go long above 78.9 for a target of 79.6 zone. All yen pairs seem to be under similar lines which is too much of a conincidence. Be patient and you will be rewarded.The AUDUSD charts look inviting as the pair rests on the mid BB 25,2 on the daily. Dips to .9819cannot be ruled outand hence exercising caution is the game. If the pair can floor it here then we are talking of levels of 1.0088 and then 1.0357 levels. on the daily charts.On the hourly, AUDUSD is capped at .9915 by the 100 BB and the 25 BB mid lines but be prepared to go long above these levels for a go at .9980 levels and 1.007 in extension. Vortex has a possitive crossover while stochastics is in neutral zone. All in all, a prime candidate for your watchlist.This is exactly what I would have liked VIX to do after its violation of the 200 MA. It dipped back to 20 levels before mounting another assault. I may be wrong here but see the rising trend line being supported by the 25,2 BB mid line? Well if VIX is heading higher then this is where you need to long VIX with a stop below 20.Mark
Captial3x.com
