• The latest IMM data covers the week from 1 September to 8 September.
  • The dollar has come under renewed pressure during the past week and the DXY dollar index broke below 77 for the first time since September last year. This is also reflected in the IMM data which shows that speculative investors added further to total short USD positions.
  • The main source of the increase in USD shorts was a large reduction of net short GBP positions. However, speculative investors are still marginally biased towards a lower GBP/USD.
  • Long EUR positions were built further against USD, reflecting that speculative investors remain bullish on EUR/USD even at current high levels. However, even as the spike above 1.45 in EUR/USD (and out of its recent trading range) came just prior to the collection of the IMM data, net long positions are still ‘only’ at 12% of open interest.
  • While speculative investors scaled back long NZD and CAD positions slightly (in share of open interest) it is worth noting that long AUD positions were actually extended slightly – possibly reflecting the diverging investor expectations to both growth and monetary policy. Indeed, Australia – the only G10 economy not to have seen a technical recession – does look set to be an early mover in terms of monetary policy tightening.