• The latest IMM data covers the week from 14 to 21 July.
  • Speculative investors increased their bets that the dollar would depreciate further, as net short USD positions were extended by USD7.3bn. Short USD positions were mainly built against the euro, which has appreciated strongly against the greenback on the recent surge in risk appetite. Hence, part of the movement in EUR/USD from the low 1.38s to above 1.42 can probably be attributed to positioning.
  • Net long EUR positions currently stand at 24% of open interest – the highest level since March 2008. While the long EUR/USD trade is still far from as crowded as in 2007, the build-up in short USD positions does raise the risk for a correction and positioning could thus help catalyse a potential move lower in EUR/USD should risk appetite abate.
  • Net short GBP positions were scaled back and are approaching neutral levels. GBP/USD has corrected higher during the past few weeks and not even very disappointing Q2 GDP numbers from the UK were able turn the trend.
  • Speculative investors have increased their long positions in the commodity currencies further – mainly adding to AUD and CAD longs.
  • The JPY strengthened somewhat against the dollar in the days leading up to the collection of IMM data, which might explain the minor expansion of net JPY longs. However, USD/JPY has since broken higher to flirt with the 95 level again.